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Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by doubledime, Feb 10, 2011.
Does anyone know of an online casino for Americans that has 100X odds? thanks
I don't play craps on the net or any other pit games.its not because I don't want to, but rather my state will not let me play. It is the only state in the country that will go after your money for gambling on the net.
Rushmore Casino and Cherry Red Casino, which help support this site offer 3x odds. Bodog offers 2x. I'm not sure about anyone else.
Finding 100x online might be tough, as there is very little profit margin on such bets. Good luck in your search, please let us know if you find anything.
The real question is why would you even want 100X odds? It doesn't subtract from your ev, it just boosts your variance. Now if you were able to skew the results, that would be another thing. But that shouldn't happen on line.
The absence of a regulating authority is the reason I have never, nor will I ever, gamble online. Where do I go to collect my winnings if they are not sent to me? To whom do I complain if I suspect the casino has secretly downloaded magnets to my computer?
The reason to look for 100X odds is the ability, if one is willing to bet that much at all, to bet it on a zero-HA bet instead of a bet with an expected loss attached. A progression on odds bets works best if you can just keep adding on odds multiples, without having to increase your line bet.
Having said that, I agree with Skulk that I would never bet online. I want to know what my chances are, for sure. I don't play any "machine" games, because you can't know how they're programmed.
The house advantage on the line bet does not change if you put 100X odds behind. Only the total percentage. And the variance. And for the bettor that usually is not a good thing.
Your first statement is absolutely correct. The "total percentage", as you call it, is a misleading figure, in my view. The ev on the line bet is unaffected by odds, of course. Variance is the only thing that gives the player a chance to win, but it should be "handled with care".
My point in my post was that, if a player is comfortable betting $500, it makes sense to bet it on odds instead of other bets. For example:
$500 pass bet
standard deviation: $499.95
60 such bets
standard deviation: $3872.60
$5 pass bet, taking 100X odds
average bet: $338.33
60 such bets
That's a difference of $420 in expected loss for a couple hours' play, with about the same variance. For players with that kind of money, there's a very good reason for seeking out 100X odds, in my view.
Yes Alan of course we agree. But on this forum I really don't think there many who would play that way. I also don't think a financially well off punter would risk playing at an online 100X odds casino, nor would any online casino put out such a low profit game. Given that there are enough fools in this world I will probably stand corrected shortly!
I agree with Points 1 and 2. $500 bettors are not that plentiful, period, and I strongly suspect they prefer the comps and special treatment they receive at brick and mortar houses to online play.
I disagree with Point 3, however. I have to believe there is very little overhead associated with a virtual casino, at least compared to a real one, and so I think it would be more likely to find 100x odds online than on the street.
If the house advantage was your only consideration, you would make the minimum flat bet and take maximum odds. If this is true
than as you increase your odds bet the house advantage changes and goes down.
As you increase your odds bet behind the line the house advantge becomes less.....more odds=less house advantage.
Most craps authors say, as you increase odds the house advantage goes down, yet you disagree with this Alan. Are most craps writers in error in what they say ?
The flat 5 dollar PL bet earns a theoretical .07 cents ( 1.4 X 5 = 07 ) for the house ; this 7 cents is constant but as you take more and more odds behind the line this 7 cents results in a lower and lower percentage of the house earnings.
It's all in the denominator, 777! Take the place bets, for example. The craps books do not lump them all together, showing an average HA for "place bets". When they put the flat bet and odds bets together and calculate an average HA for both combined, there is the implication that the bettor expects to lose less, since the calculated HA does go down. However, the odds bet and flat bet, although resolved at the same time, are not the same bet and have different HAs if calculated separately. Another reason to analyze them separately is that the flat bet has two parts, a big player advantage on the comeout and a smaller, but weighted twice as heavily, house advantage after a point is established.
The books say:
pass line, no odds: 1.414% HA
We can derive this from the "perfect 1980", which has 976 winners, 1004 losers, a net loss of 28 units, divided by 1980 = .01414
pass line, double odds: 0.61%
We can also derive this from the "perfect 1980", which still shows a net loss of 28 units, but the total units bet are 4620 (1 * 660) + (3 * 1320), so 28 / 4620 = .00606.
I think that most people interpret this to mean they are going to lose less because the HA goes down; however, this is completely false.
If we look at the two bets separately, they look like this:
pass line, flat, 976 winners, 1004 losers, net loss 28
250 winners on 6/8 * 6/5 = 300
300 losers on 6/8 = -300
176 winners on 5/9 * 3/2 = 264
264 losers on 5/9 = -264
110 winners on 4/10 * 2/1 = 220
220 losers on 4/10 = -220
net: 0 / 1320 = 0.00
The expected value is in no way affected by the odds bet; it's always -1.414% of the flat bet.
So, to answer your question: no, the craps books are not WRONG, but their approach is misleading and does not promote understanding of what's really going on.
Let's analyze the $6 place bet on 6 with a $1 hard six at the same time.
7: -7 * 6 ways = -42
easy 6: win 7, lose 1 = 6 * 4 = +24
hard 6: win 7, win 9 = 16 * 1 = 16
net -2 / 77 = -.0260
So, the house advantage on betting a place six and hard six is 2.60%. Now, we know that the hard six has an HA of 9.09%, while the place six has an HA of 1.52%. So, we could say that, by placing the six for six times as much as the hardway bet, we LOWER the house advantage substantially, right? The numbers prove it, just like with the pass/odds. But, does that mean we are going to lose less? Of course, not, we are going to lose an additional unit for every 11 combined bets. The EV for eleven of each bet is -1 unit. It's misleading, isn't it?
Let me just address this sentence, too: "The flat 5 dollar PL bet earns a theoretical .07 cents ( 1.4 X 5 = 07 ) for the house ; this 7 cents is constant but as you take more and more odds behind the line this 7 cents results in a lower and lower percentage of the house earnings."
The seven cents does not represent a lower percentage of the house earnings, because the house has no earnings on the odds bet. The seven cents represents a lower percentage of the amount bet by the player. The house's expected earnings are affected ONLY when players bet LESS on the flat bet and bet that money on the odds bet. High odds multiples allow players to take more advantage of that principle. See my post of 11:40 yesterday.