11-12 progression at crapless table

Discussion in 'Dice Influencing' started by DeMango, Nov 20, 2019.

  1. von duck, Nov 30, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    Let's see 4X4X4 = 64. 64 X 52 = 3328. So, for each successful triple parlay, you would only be down a little over $1200? :confused: That's a "Wopping" ( great name for it) :) H/E of about 35%. 777 should love this play. :cool:
     
    #21
  2. The Midnight Skulker, Nov 30, 2019

    The Midnight Skulker

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    To restate the scenario as I understand it we're buying 11 on a crapless craps table that takes immediate vig looking to win four bets using a progression of 25-100-350-500. Here are my numbers:
    1. Bet $25. If we lose this bet we're down $26. If we win ...
    2. Progress to $100. If we lose this bet we're down $6. If we win ...
    3. Progress to $350. If we lose this bet we're up $26. If we win ...
    4. Progress to $500. If we lose this bet we're up $901. If we win ...
    5. Come down with a profit of $2876.
    Each bet has a 0.25 probability of winning, hence we're expected to lose a shade over $8.17/series for a HA of 31.423%. Given I think you were using the original 50-150-500 progression our answers are close enough for me to consider them verified. Definitely a play I personally would consider using only when I was a punk feeling lucky that day.
     
    #22
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  3. Dave G Ct, Nov 30, 2019

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    Taking notes Duck?
     
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  4. Mssthis1, Nov 30, 2019

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    How are you arriving at that number? There's 2 ways to win and 6 ways to lose the buy 11 bet, - the vig.

    The vig is the kicker. Personally I'd only attempt this play on a vig after game, if such a bird exists. It used to at Ameristar in KC but I haven't been there for almost 18 months.

    Wizard of odds has the HA as 4.7169% on commission up front and 1.25% on commission behind for the 3 or 11.
     
    #24
  5. von duck, Nov 30, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    He used the other scenario, and figured it down to 1/1000 of a percent, which I feel is unnecessary detail for so poor a bet. My figures were approximate, which I thought close enough, for a bet this bad. :cool:
     
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  6. von duck, Nov 30, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    Two ways to win, and six ways to lose equates to 2/8 chance of winning, which reduces to 1/4, or 25% chance of winning, each bet. In DeMango's example, the vig was pre-pay, so $208 In action, leaves you with $200. 200/208 = .9615 = 96.15% return. The H/E that MN and I gave are cumulative. In my case it's 1 bet in 64 wins, so 64 X $52 ='$3328 in action for a return of $2000 once, and $ 66 four times minus the additional out of pocket vig, of $7 sixteen times, so minus $112. All of this leaves you with a total return of $2264 for an "investment" of $3440. 2264/3440 = 65.81% return on investment. Your absolutely right about pre-pay vig, it's total bullshit, and much worse bullshit, as the odds of hitting get slimmer. :cool:
     
    #26
  7. Mssthis1, Nov 30, 2019

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    Ok Harley. Lol. It's 2/6 chance of winning or 1 in 3 on the 3 and 11. The bet pays 3/1 minus the vig assuming you're buying the number.
     
    #27
  8. von duck, Nov 30, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    No, you are completely wrong. :confused: This is the problem with dealing with the math. There are 8 decisions involved with this problem. 2 of the decisions are winners, 6 of the decisions are losers. So, you would win 2 out of 8 times or, more simply 1 time out of 4. Perhaps the problem is your shared DNA, with TD, who also has math problems.:)
    If you lost the bet twice, and won it once, they could not pay you 3/1. Think real hard, it'll come to you, unless of course, YOUR Harley? :confused: :cool:
     
    #28
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2019
  9. Dave G Ct, Nov 30, 2019

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    The Duck peacocking around!
     
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  10. von duck, Nov 30, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    Hey Man! Somebody is right, and somebody is wrong. :confused: It's just a matter of getting the facts straight, that's all. HE, was wrong, and I was just leading him to the correct answer, he's a big boy, and should be able to handle it. :cool: And so should you. :)
     
    #30
  11. basicstrategy777, Dec 1, 2019

    basicstrategy777

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  12. von duck, Dec 1, 2019

    von duck

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    In honor of its advocates, I christen this play "A WOW-WOPPER". :)
     
    #32
  13. Mssthis1, Dec 1, 2019

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    Every roll in craps is an independent trial. The ha stays the same. The reason you are expected to lose more is because you're exposing more money more times to the house edge with the parlay. If a person made this bet continuously I agree with with the potential amount loss. That is theo loss, not HA,

    You also forgot comeout rolls which will rain on the parade 5.5% of the time in each sequence of the parlay unless you woco..

    Using your math person should never play because if they made 10 pass line bets the HA would be 14%.
     
    #33
  14. von duck, Dec 1, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    What are you, Fk'n retarded? :confused: It doesn't matter if you play the bet continuously, or just once, the predicted loss, is the same percentage of action. The bet was (PLACE ELEVEN) so the comeout roll has absolutely, nothing to do with it. If you are "off" on the come out, then for the purpose of this bet, those rolls never happened, and change nothing. The HA does NOT stay the same, it's cumulative, because this play requires, not one winning hand, but three in a row. On average, it would require starting this bet 64 times, to realize ONE winner. If you prefer to only play the bet once, your chance of succeeding, is 1/64, or about 1.56%. By the way (Theoretical loss) and HA, amount to the same thing. :cool:
     
    #34
  15. Mssthis1, Dec 1, 2019

    Mssthis1

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    In a game of independent trials it wouldn't make a difference. When you parley multiple times you've changed your personal game to something other than independent trials. If a comeout roll 11 happens you now need 5 elevens instead of 4 to run the whole parley and come down with it. That changes the odds of it happening in one shoot by a significant amount and needs to be accounted for.

    That's one of the main reasons I'm not a fan of parleys and never use them.
     
    #35
  16. Dave G Ct, Dec 1, 2019

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    Duck makes a valid point.wins are accumulated.
     
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  17. von duck, Dec 1, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    It changes NOTHING. The dice do not know what number rolled previously, and don't give a shit. Even if they did know, they have no way to alter the outcome of the following rolls. Ya know, I thought you were smarter than TD, but I'll have to concede, that I was wrong. You have been faking it, but it's starting to "stink" now. What you said in this post is absolutely ludicrous, absolutely. Moronic is what it is. :cool:
     
    #37
  18. von duck, Dec 1, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    No, 10 pass line bets does NOT have an HA of 14%. :confused: But, YOUR assertion that one should not play, would be absolutely correct, if money, is the only consideration. :cool:
     
    #38
  19. eagleeye2, Dec 1, 2019

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

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    Mssthis1,

    Dam, you never get the fastest way to play ""On House Money"", DUH...

    eagleeye2
     
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  20. Dave G Ct, Dec 1, 2019

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    Think we are forgetting DeMangos premise that being the 6-6 comes up more than expected during his shooting.That is the reason to make that bet.In my shooting the 1-1 comes up around every 12 rolls.
     
    #40
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