12=30:1 Anybody ever try this strategy??

Discussion in 'Prop Bets & Side Bets' started by CityLights, Sep 10, 2012.

  1. CityLights, Sep 10, 2012

    CityLights

    CityLights Member

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    i know this is possibly the worst bet in the casino..
    just listen to my argument..
    mathmatically a 12 rolls every 36rolls.. house pays 30:1..
    so what if i watched the table for 15 or 20 rolls without a 12 (no bets yet) and then jumped in and started betting 100$ on the hard 12 every roll.. if it hits before the next 30 rolls i make a profit obviously the sooner the better.. but wouldnt this put the odds in my favor giving me 50 rolls?? or am i just another moron trying to out think the house? lol be honest here.. im a big boy i can handle it..
     
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  2. basicstrategy777, Sep 10, 2012

    basicstrategy777

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    That makes sense, although I think most here would discourage your play and say it is mathematically unsound.

    If I don't see a 2 or 12 show for a long time I will bet it, figuring it is due. It's a gut play.

    Personally, I would wait longer than 15/20 rolls.....more like 40.

    It's a gamble, and 'ol mule teeth might not show for a long time. !00 bucks might be a little steep.

    What's the worse that can happen ?

    Oh......if it hits I'd go up on the bet ;....however, you couldn't parlay 100 bucks.

    777
     
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  3. CityLights, Sep 10, 2012

    CityLights

    CityLights Member

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    im a little new to the craps world.. what do you mean by parlay the 100$.. and surely i wouldnt try it first with 100$.. maybe 10$for300$ or even 1$for30$..thankyou for your reply.
     
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  4. CityLights, Sep 10, 2012

    CityLights

    CityLights Member

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    and dont tell me i dont have your mind wondering lol.. ive tried this in my basement dozens of times on a 12ft'r.. and it works almost all the time.. next time you get a chance give it a shot..
     
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  5. basicstrategy777, Sep 10, 2012

    basicstrategy777

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    I mis-read your post.....I thought you were betting 100 per roll.

    There is a difference between your basement and a real live table where you throw down your cash and start playing....for some reason it's different and your feelings will be different, especially when what happened in your basement does not happen at the casino.

    777
     
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  6. CityLights, Sep 10, 2012

    CityLights

    CityLights Member

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    no i did say 100$ a roll.. it was just an example.. 100for3000.. and believe me i know theres a difference.. ive done it in my basdemtn hundreds of times but have yet to pull the trigger in the casino.. but please do explain what you meant by the parlay.. im trying to learn..
     
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  7. basicstrategy777, Sep 10, 2012

    basicstrategy777

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    100 on the 12.........at 30 to 1 you win 3000.......to parlay means to take your winnings ( 3000) and add it to your original bet......you let it ALL ride.........your bet on the 12 is now 3100.

    777
     
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  8. CityLights, Sep 10, 2012

    CityLights

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    if i hit for 3k my ass is walking staright out the door lol..
     
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  9. basicstrategy777, Sep 10, 2012

    basicstrategy777

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    never get off a winner....at least one more time.

    777
     
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  10. kaysirtap, Sep 10, 2012

    kaysirtap

    kaysirtap Member

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    Well... I wouldn't have put it that way... but since you're a big boy... then my answer is "yes". 1/36 is a probability, not a certainty. The law of large numbers illustrates that over a large sample size, you will experience an average result that is close to the expected result. In this case, over a large number of rolls, you will see 12s an average of approximately 1/36 times. But it's not like a clock. It doesn't come every 36 rolls. And if you haven't seen a 12 in 360 rolls, it doesn't make it any more "due". Nor does this mean that there will be more 12s in the future to make up for its absence before. Rather, after resuming to come up on average 1 out of 36 times for hundreds of thousands of rolls, its absence during the first 360 rolls is so small in relation that it goes practically unnoticed in the math. That's the easiest way I can explain it to you.

    It's probably a good idea to stay away from this strategy if you're worried about tossing away money.
     
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  11. CityLights, Sep 10, 2012

    CityLights

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    i agree ever roll has a new set of odds.. thats not debateable its a fact.. but do me a favor if you ever have free time.. take a set of dice and roll it 50 times.. i think this holds more water than ppl think.. am i actually gonna try it.. yes this weekend but with 1$ bills lol.. i think it mathmatically puts an edge in your favor..
     
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  12. Southern-Comfort, Sep 10, 2012

    Southern-Comfort

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    Seriously, people hit on the yo's all the time. Only half as much a chance for a 12, but half of all the time sounds good to me, if its just fun money anyway. I wouldn't recommend it for those betting serious money though.
     
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  13. tercol58, Sep 10, 2012

    tercol58

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    I f you get caught up in the moment or two that fun money can put a serious dent in the bankroll. I have seen people walk up to a craps table and throw a grand or two at the prop bets and even hit a few still see them leave broke many times before me and my $100 buy in. By the way they had a grand or two buy in but their bets were 1 or 2 hundred at a time.
     
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  14. Sancho Panza, Sep 10, 2012

    Sancho Panza

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    Which is probably over the limit for most casinos.
     
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  15. kaysirtap, Sep 10, 2012

    kaysirtap

    kaysirtap Member

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    Done. In 50 rolls, I didn't throw a single 12. Now what?
    Okay... show us the math that proves it. Note: Gambler's fallacy is not math. Furthermore, if you only provide successful results or observations, then this is explained by variance... which is math, I guess... but it's not the math that's going to prove your theory that the player has an edge.
     
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  16. CityLights, Sep 10, 2012

    CityLights

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    like i said on average a 12 rolls every 36th roll.. i understnad thats over thousands of rolls for an average but its still an average.. and the house knows this thats why they pay 30:1.. if they paid 36:1 it would be even.. but if we take 50 rolls that changes things.. is it a smart bet i dunno? thats why were talking about it.. but i believe that if you roll dice 50x10 times you will see a 12 more times than not..
     
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  17. CityLights, Sep 10, 2012

    CityLights

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  18. CubyTuesday, Sep 10, 2012

    CubyTuesday

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    Kaysirtap,

    The fact is, every time you throw the dice and the 12 did not appear, your odds get worse. You have to think about it like this; odds are 1/36 for the 12. You get 36 chances to throw it. Now, if you threw the dice 26 times, you only have 10 more chances to get the 12. So if someone came up to you and said, "I will only give you 10 chances to throw a 12.". You would say " get lost". Because you only have a .277 chance of rolling a 12 if you only get 10 rolls to roll a 1/36 number.

    Make sense?

    Cuby.
     
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  19. $nakeEye$, Sep 10, 2012

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    For Kaysirtap - citylights - and all others -

    This is what seperates the " men from the boys " -

    This is what seperates the " AP " from the " RandomRoller " -

    I am not a " RandomRoller" - I am a " budding AP " -

    I know a lot - but also know I have a lot to learn -

    When I set the dice for 4/3 - 5/2 AND hit 6 consecutive 7's on the come-out roll -

    Is THAT luck - is that a fluke - is that " standard deviation " - NO - it is practice time that paid dividends when I got to the casino !

    NO MORE - NO LESS -

    Regards your $100 bet - we practiced THAT last night - $100 YO - PARLAY after you take back your initial $100 -


    NOW a $1500 YO bet - Hit it it pays $22,500 -

    LOSE it - you LOST NOTHING !

    BUT - YOU can not depend on " RANDOM EVENTS " for " Stuff like This " -

    You have to have a " little bit " more than that in your shot bag to pull this puppy off !
     
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  20. kaysirtap, Sep 11, 2012

    kaysirtap

    kaysirtap Member

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    Actually, if the 12 paid 36 to 1, the player would have an advantage on the bet. The payout you're looking for is 35 to 1.
    Okay, let us know how that works out for you.

    You are saying that it will be easier to throw a 12 given 36 chances as opposed to 10 chances. Agreed... although I'm not sure if I agree with your math at the end. But what is your point? That CityLights' theory should be true, or not?
     
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