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Discussion in 'Prop Bets & Side Bets' started by CityLights, Sep 10, 2012.
Goodby Cuby Tuesday......
Yes, that statement made me shudder as well. But after reading the whole post, I'm not so sure he meant it as it sounded... at least I hope not.
Precisely... it sounds like he's looking at long run, rather than indiviguakl roll, which is the way he unintentinally typed it. Long run for an individual, who can only stay so long, is different than for a casino that never leaves.... so you do have to look at how much gambler's falacy in involved and how much is true expectation. I used to watch the tables for seven field rolls in a row. It happens, it happens alot. It happened every time I went to the casino in fact. But, oddly enough, it never happened when I bet it.
So, without trying it with wincraps (I gotta learn to program that witch someday), I'll just state my opinion is that Cuby's idea is sound, if you are playing with small amounts, but not something you should gamble on if you "need to win". Should work more often than not, but when it doesn't work, its gonna hurt.
The chances of rolling a 12 is greater if you have 36 tosses than if you have 10 tosses.
The chance of rolling a 12 on each toss is 2.77%.............it is not 2.77 if you have 10 cracks at it.
This is similar to betting someone regarding making 3 sevens in a row.......the odds are one thing on the first toss.....they are different fter you have made 2 sevens. When you make the bet is the key....at the beginning or at the end. The odds are different.
ok so whats the end result in the discussion? do you think out of 50 rolls you will roll a 12 more often than not.. a simple yes or no will work.. im not holding any1 to anything lol.. just like to see if anybody else "THINKS" this might be a half decent idea..
The reason the idea sucks is the payout. 30 to 1 when it should be 35 to 1. Anything can happen and does in the short run. Now if you learn how to throw a 12 more often than average then come back and discuss.
good idea for fun money but don't play the rent money. If you do it, be sure you have a spot close to the stickman and tell him to expect the bet renewed every roll, otherwise you may end up ticking him off until he realizes what going on. If/when you do hit, make sure to tip.
In 50 rolls, more often than not, there will be at least one 12. However, I don't believe that there will be enough 12s in 50 rolls to make betting on the 12 a "good" bet... no matter how long of a string of non-12s you wait for.
Fun bet at best. Just tried it on my table. no dice setting, just grab and hurl. 12 on the second roll. It was another 96 rolls before the second 12 appeared. Interestingly four 2's came up before that second 12, and for the record 8 11's. Its a risk for sure. You might look at hopping a hardway and placing it as well in order to shorten the number of losses until, to see how that works out.
lol thankyou for taking the time to atleast try it.. 2nd roll huh .. 2800$ in the pocket.. thankyou for all your advice,ideas,strategies.. this is 1 of those things i guess im going to have to learn the hard way bcuz i have my mind stuck on it and im gonna give it a run.. gonna walk up wait 20rolls (no 12) and let her have it.. ill be betting 10$ a shot to get my feet wet.. tomorrow morning is the day.. Tomorrows Bankroll 450$ 300 for the 12 and 150$ for play..The Victim? Showboat
I can understand full well why you want to give it a try.
My suggestion is for you to bet 2 dollars instead of 10, and make it look like 10 ( up 8 dollars) after the first hit and a 60 dollar horn bet after the second hit.
You will still get an idea of how it is working. You want to fly patch, fly patch. fly patch, until you have a good working model. Although you won't understand this, the worst thing that can happen is you become a big winner.
Also, I would extend 20 tosses to at least 30 to 40. The tables will be there tomorrow.
A really off topic question here: don't you get annoyed having to retrieve the dice at the end of the table 98 times? Do you have a really long stick, or do you have to walk to the other end of the table every time? Or do you have your own stickman? "Yeah, that kind of rich"
Going to try out my new non-multiple-quoting method now with another post... =)
I've heard this lingo many times, "make it look like". Where does that come from? Why does the bet have to "look like" 10 instead of just making it 10?
Walk and have a stick. And its a 14 foot table to boot. Its really not that difficult to take three or four stteps, go back, and throw again. I will admit that I had already decided I was going to stop at 120 throws if it went that far.
Multi all you like, at least now you'll know why I quit reading your replies when they get to be too much.
Bs777 i think i am gonna push it to 30.. but what do you mean by the horn bet? ive heard it before but not exactly sure what it is.. i thought betting the 12 was a horn bet??
A Horn bet is actually a group of four individual bets. The four individual bets are the bets on the 2, 3, 11, and 12. By making a Horn bet, you are dividing your bet into four equal parts and betting each part on each of the numbers I just listed. To be properly paid, you need to bet in increments of (x*4), where "x" equals the table's lowest denomination cheque. The total Horn bet divided by four must meet the table minimum requirements for proposition bets (bets in the middle).
In other words, if you were to make a $4 Horn bet, that would be the same as betting $1 each on the 2, 3, 11, and 12. If one of those numbers were to hit, the portion of the Horn bet on that particular number ($1 in this case) would be multiplied by the payout (typically 15:1 for the 3 and 11, and 30:1 for the 2 and 12), then they would subtract the part of the Horn bet that lost ($3 in this case) and give you the rest. They subtract the losing part so that your entire Horn bet will be up to win again. Unless the dealers know you are coming down on some of your bets, they will usually also subtract any other prop action that may have lost on that roll so you can stay up on those as well.
There are also Horn-High bets, which are five-unit bets (as opposed to Horn bets which are four-unit bets). In a Horn-High bet, the extra fifth unit goes on the Horn number of your choice. So for example, a Horn-High-12 is $1 on the 2, $1 on the 3, $1 on the 11, and $2 on the 12. Of course, you can also bet the Horn-High-Aces, Horn-High-Ace-Deuce, or Horn-High-Yo, and the fifth unit would be on the 2, 3, or 11, respectively.
CityLights....'K' explained the horn bet well. You are betting on 4 numbers for one roll.
The way I figure the payout : If you are betting a 4 dollar horn, you are betting one dollar on the 2,3,11,12. Think of each 4 dollars bet as 1 unit. So for a 4 dollar horn you are betting one unit. If you were betting a 20 dollar horn ( 5 dollars on each number ) , you would have 5 units......if you were betting a 60 dollar horn you would have15 units.
So you bet a 4 dollar horn......If a 3 or 11 shows you multiply the number of units by 12. 12 times 1 = 12 ( remember every 4 dollars bet is i unit )....you won 12 dollars.
You bet a 20 dollar horn....# of units is 5.....5 times 12 = 60 dollars.
You bet a 60 dollar horn.....# of units is 15....15 times 12 = 180 dollars
Everything is the same if 2 or 12 show......only you multiply the number of units by 27.
20 dollar horn pays 5 times 27 = 135
4 dollar horn pays 1 times 27 = 27
Remember, the original bet stays up.
JC.....'make it look like' is a craps term that is clear and the dealers are familiar with it and there is zero confusion about what you want to do. It is used when going up or going down. You can say anything you want to say as long as it is clear and understood by all.
I was wondering if anyone knew where this phrasing came from. A dealer would say, "Your hard 8 looks like $2 now", and I'd think... it looks like $2?... well is it, or isn't it $2? I don't care what it looks like, I want to know what it is. So does anyone know why they say this in the first place?
Not sure if anyone knows the source of the term, but maybe on Midnight Skulker's next visit to this forum he can shed some light. he's a bit of a craps historian from what I've seen.
ok so lemme get this straight.. its only considered a horn bet if i bet all 4? i understand the math and the payout just lacking on the terminology.. lol..