12=30:1 Anybody ever try this strategy??

Discussion in 'Prop Bets & Side Bets' started by CityLights, Sep 10, 2012.

  1. CityLights, Sep 14, 2012

    CityLights

    CityLights Member

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    thankyou for your advice.. the tough guy thing came from this jgreen guy.. he cqalled me a tough guy like i was trying to be tough.. or maybe he thinks hes a tough guy i dont know.. either way.i brought this whole thing up because it struck me as a good idea.. but apparently nobody here thinks so lol.. and yous know loads more than me so im assuming it wasnt a good idea.. im just learning the game of craps.. i was overseas for awhile and im trying to get out more and have some fun.. i guess i appreciate things a little more now friends,family,fishing,and my favorite, gambling.. once i stepped up to the craps table i was hooked from the vibe and the type of ppl that played.. i was used to the dead beat poker players calculating odds and outs the whole time we played.. played poker for years and years and i guess im just bored with it.. craps fits my personality much better..
     
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  2. CityLights, Sep 14, 2012

    CityLights

    CityLights Member

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    thats exactly what im saying.. but i dont understand the difference.. if i say in 60 rolls a 12 will show.. and i wait out 30 of them (of course if 12 hits we start over) and then bet 1$ on the next 30rolls how is that different? im not arguing "tough guy" im asking..
     
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  3. dustedone, Sep 14, 2012

    dustedone

    dustedone Member

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    CityLights,

    Thanks for the reasoning. I still kinda would like to know where you play? As for being new to the game; cool. I tell most that are new to read as much as you can find on the game. One should find a way to pratice. Either play on-line, X-box, or computer. Not all bet are cover by simiulators and neither is the "call out" of wagers. And when at the table just observe. Even if you just play the pass line, listen to what people are saying and how they are betting. And see/figure why sosmeone is winning/losing.

    And don t ever not shot the dice. That the best part of the game. You have a hot roll at the table and nearly everyone becomes your best friend.

    good luck
     
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  4. kaysirtap, Sep 14, 2012

    kaysirtap

    kaysirtap Member

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    Indeed, there is a big difference. You see, when you say that a 12 will show up in the next 60 rolls, it's okay if the 12 shows up within the first 30. If it shows up within the first 30 rolls, the event of showing up at least once in 60 rolls has taken place. Once you decide that it's only okay if it shows up in the last 30, you are basically banking that the 12 will roll during only a 30 roll period... not 60. In order to give yourself the 60-roll cushion, it needs to be okay if the 12 shows up at any time during those 60 rolls.

    Without getting into real calculations, if I gave you only one shot to roll a 12, your odds aren't too great, right? But if I give you 1000 tries to roll a 12, your odds are obviously better, right? But if you go 999 rolls without a 12, you're back to the same odds of rolling a 12 in one shot. The same if I said that you get 1000 tries... but the 12 must show up on the 1000th roll. If some guy said to you that the 12 hasn't been thrown in 999 rolls, would you bet your entire life savings on the 12 for the next roll? Of course not. To think that the 12 somehow has a better chance of showing up on that 1000th throw because it hasn't shown up in the previous 999 is to believe in the gambler's fallacy.

    And now the real calculations: During a 60-roll period, after every roll goes by of not seeing a 12, you have fewer chances to get that 12... therefore, the odds of seeing at least one 12 during that fixed 60-roll period change after every roll... all the way up to the last roll when your odds are 1/36. Before the first roll of 60, your odds of seeing at least one 12 is (1-(35/36)^60). But after 30 rolls, it's (1-(35/36)^30). And like I already said, after 59 rolls, it's (1-(35/36)^1).

    It's true that the odds of throwing a 12 on the next roll never change. And it's true that the odds of throwing a 12 in the next 60 rolls never change. But you have to remember that it's a moving 60. In other words, it's always the next 60 rolls. You would only care about that kind of statistic if you made a bet before the first throw betting that it would show up during the next 60. You cannot be within the 60 roll period and still use the statistic for 60 rolls, because there aren't 60 rolls left... there are fewer.

    If you give me a while, I might find other ways to try and hammer this into your head. Let me know if I need to do that :)
     
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  5. JGreen6918, Sep 14, 2012

    JGreen6918

    JGreen6918 Member

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    As usual, kaysirtap responded faster and probably explained my own point more clearly than I could have. 777 and CubyTuesday basically said the same thing too. Regarding my "tough guy" comment, I wasn't arguing either. It's just the way I speak. Don't take offense or think that I'm getting "hostile".
     
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  6. CubyTuesday, Sep 14, 2012

    CubyTuesday

    CubyTuesday Member

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    Kaysirtap, 777, and JGreen,

    Thank you for the acknowledgment. It amazes me how some bloggers with so much knowledge of the game can so easily 'right you off' when you speak about the true nature of odds in regards to 'gamblers fallacy'.

    Thanks again guys for backing me up.

    Cuby.
     
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  7. CityLights, Sep 14, 2012

    CityLights

    CityLights Member

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    my apologies i didnt see that you asked where i play.. i live a few minutes from AC so my usuals are Borgata,Showboat,Palace... went to the revel a few times but i worked there (during the build) for a few years so i guess im tired of looking at it lol.. nice casino but no smoking..
     
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  8. CubyTuesday, Sep 14, 2012

    CubyTuesday

    CubyTuesday Member

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    CityLights,

    I agree, it does tempt you, this bet. But you have to agree it is one of the worst bets on the table. Although, some might disagree, I put faith in 'repeating number' theory. If I were to place this bet, I would start my betting once I saw the 12.

    Cuby.
     
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  9. Southern-Comfort, Sep 14, 2012

    Southern-Comfort

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    I believe that the point they've been trying to make is that the "gambler's fa;;acy" basically assumes that everything will fall into the math, the odds. That a 12 will occur in aboutv 36 rolls and it can be relyed on. In the short run, its simply not true and a dangerious path. In the long run, the Casinos actually rely on it happening. So, its an issue of short run vs long run, and is 60 rollls long enough. Well, its certainly better than 30, but its still not the long run that the casinos play against us.
    There are the guys who roll for a couple hours with no seven showing. Yet we know one should show about every 12 tosses. Those guys are beating even the Casino's version of the gambler's fallacy, even in its purest form its not operfect. No seven in three hours is uncommon, but there are 3x more chance of a seven than a twelve.
    As I've said before, I do believe your idea sounds like a good "fun" bet, but its not a good "serious" bet. So I have to ask you (Clint Eastwood imitation here), "do you want to have fun, punk?"
    I believe in having fun, just don't risk your lifestyle on it.
     
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  10. CubyTuesday, Sep 14, 2012

    CubyTuesday

    CubyTuesday Member

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    Southern,

    I agree. Conservatively, in regards to my idea, one could wait for 9 distinct numbers(obviously no 7 in the series) and so far in my results have a 99.99% win rate. In 100 series I recorded only 2 series with 9, so I believe 8 numbers is a good gamble and worth the adrenaline rush. I know a 100 series is low, so I am testing further hopefully up to 1000 when I find the time.

    In regards to City, I used my same data to check over the 12 repeating in a series. I had 6 yes and 5 no before I got tired of looking. That would mean if he flat betted 10, he would show +1300. Those were my rolls and I still would not recommend it.

    Cuby.
     
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  11. JGreen6918, Sep 14, 2012

    JGreen6918

    JGreen6918 Member

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    So... CityLights... do you understand the flaw in your logic now?
     
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  12. JGreen6918, Sep 14, 2012

    JGreen6918

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    Is this the "dice have memory" thing again?
     
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  13. CubyTuesday, Sep 14, 2012

    CubyTuesday

    CubyTuesday Member

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    JGreen,

    Yeah, a little bit. I am still in testing phase. But the results aren't bad. Need to keep testing.

    Cuby.
     
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  14. JGreen6918, Sep 14, 2012

    JGreen6918

    JGreen6918 Member

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    So you talk about people not understanding the true odds in regards to gambler's fallacy and then you come up with a dice have memory theory? Good one.
     
    #74
  15. CityLights, Sep 14, 2012

    CityLights

    CityLights Member

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    kind of? lol i think southern comfort nailed it best.. he seems to understand exactly what im getting at.. the 1 guy said something about waiting for the 12 and then rolling? that make zero sense to me.. and another said everytime i roll without a 12 my odds get worse? wheich really makes no sense to me.. but it was a fun conversation and i never realized it would draw this much attention but its a goodthing i guess.. 1 of you guys said it was buying a win and i never looked at it like that prior to this thread but thats exactly what it is..
     
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  16. CubyTuesday, Sep 14, 2012

    CubyTuesday

    CubyTuesday Member

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    JGreen,

    I believe gamblers fallacy and repeating number theory are 2 separate entities. But that is only my opinion. I need to fully explore the merit of one before I can completely right it off. Maybe you have already walked down that road. I am still taking a peek. I will be more than happy to share my results with you when I get to the end of my journey.

    Cuby.
     
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  17. JGreen6918, Sep 14, 2012

    JGreen6918

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    That may be true, but they have one important thing in common: they both say that something is more likely in the future because of something that has happened in the past. And with independent events like dice throws, it's simply not true.
     
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  18. CubyTuesday, Sep 14, 2012

    CubyTuesday

    CubyTuesday Member

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    I have to agree. But...

    Please Google Benford's Law and you will understand my curiosity for number patterns.

    Cuby.
     
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  19. JGreen6918, Sep 14, 2012

    JGreen6918

    JGreen6918 Member

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    Are you saying that Benford's Law applies to dice rolls, or are you simply saying that because that phenomenon occurs, a phenomenon with dice rolls is possible as well?
     
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  20. CubyTuesday, Sep 14, 2012

    CubyTuesday

    CubyTuesday Member

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    Not that Benford's Law applies exactly, but you are completely on the mark that phenomena in numbers occurs. How it applies to dice is what I am interested in.

    Cuby.
     
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