$5000 Bankroll, Rate my Strategy

Discussion in 'Bankroll Management' started by BeastWolf, Jun 16, 2020.

  1. BeastWolf, Jun 16, 2020

    BeastWolf

    BeastWolf Member

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    A SIMPLE 1 to 5 RATING IS GREAT. IF YOU WANT TO COMMENT THAT'S EVEN BETTER!

    Hi everyone. This is my first post and I wanted to get some feedback.
    I'm going to Vegas over 4th of July weekend. This is my strat, please advice.

    Start Strategy & Down Strategy
    1) Buy in with all $5000 or whatever my bankroll is currently at. I prefer to see my entire bankroll status all the time. I get confused when I break it up into smaller bankrolls and have to piece together my winnings. I want to know where I'm at all times.
    2) $25 Passline bet
    3) $102 on both the 6 and 8
    4) $25 on the Field
    5) Any money won on the 6/8 or field is used to fill in the 4, 5, 9 and 10. Once everything is filled I stop putting money on the Field. If the 6/8 is hitting a lot I'll stop betting on the Field sooner. My goal is to mostly use House Money to fill in the numbers.
    6) Press the 6/8 in the following increments. $102 is my start, then to $120, $150, $180, $210.
    7) On the fourth roll after the point is established I'll place full odds behind the point. $75 for the 4/10, $100 for the 5/9 and $125 for the 6/8.

    Hot Roll Strategy & Up 50% Strategy
    – Same as the above but move the Passline bet up to $50 or $100
    – Up my 6/8 bet to $210 after the point is established. Press each number to $420 once it hits, then $450, $480. Stop pressing at $480.
    – After one or two successful rolls after the point is established, add full odds based on the $50/$100 Passline bet. This can mean up to $500 worth of odds for the 6/8.
    –Once I reach $10K (doubled up) stop gambling and go home.

    Cold Strategy
    – If the point is missed three time in a row I switch tables.
    – If the table is choppy, I don't put odds down unless the current roll has gone past 5 throws.
     
    #1
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  2. lone irish digit, Jun 16, 2020

    lone irish digit

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    This is Barney

    Most greatest first post but if the LID was here he would need to know more information before rating strategy:

    1. Are you a so-called DI, DI, or randy.
    2. Do you wear or want to procure a DI Skunkhat
    3. Do you know or speak to the Dice
    4. Do you know or follow teachings of Opie and Sexshooter
    5. Are you user of the Bonetracker and Chi squares
    6. Do you know why opposite sides of dices add up to seven
    7. Have you seen the Supperick's table of the craps
    8. Do you like goats
     
    #2
  3. BeastWolf, Jun 16, 2020

    BeastWolf

    BeastWolf Member

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    Most greatest first post but if the LID was here he would need to know more information before rating strategy:

    1. Are you a so-called DI, DI, or randy.
    I just throw the dice and hope for the best. I don't have time to practice dice throwing and I don't understand how it would ever work if the casino makes you hit the back wall.

    2. Do you wear or want to procure a DI Skunkhat
    I don't know what that is so I guess not.

    3. Do you know or speak to the Dice
    LOL…I don't talk to them but I do think dice are sexy.

    4. Do you know or follow teachings of Opie and Sexshooter
    No clue who these people are, so no.

    5. Are you user of the Bonetracker and Chi squares
    No. But I'm going to look up these things.

    6. Do you know why opposite sides of dices add up to seven
    No clue. I thought it was just a cool thing when I discovered it.

    7. Have you seen the Supperick's table of the craps
    No but I'm going to look this up soon.

    8. Do you like goats[/QUOTE]
    I can't tell if you're mocking me but goats seem like nice enough animals.
     
    #3
  4. Night Attack, Jun 16, 2020

    Night Attack

    Night Attack Member

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    Can you give us a bit more info on your strategy?

    How long have you been using it and how have you been faring with it?
    Secondly, if you get confused with your bankroll in the rail, how do you manage to keep track of all these different levels of betting?

    I give it 1 out of 5. Trying for 200% return on your buy in is not easy.
     
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  5. DeMango, Jun 17, 2020

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    BW: You are being played. First thing you need to know is find the ignore button. LID and Von Schmuck should be on top of the ignore list, then get some better responses.
     
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  6. Chip Magnet, Jun 17, 2020

    Chip Magnet

    Chip Magnet Member

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    Craps is a communal game, with other players depending on you to have a good roll and drive in a few runs. Show you’re a team player and set the dice. It does not matter whether or not it works. It’s the effort that counts.

    Consider investing a few bucks in WinCraps Pro, to test it, before you play for real.

    https://www.cloudcitysoftware.com
     
    #6
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2020
  7. GreyGoose007, Jun 17, 2020

    GreyGoose007

    GreyGoose007 Member

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    welcome to the fourm!!! Your strategy is 3; average. Some things to consider

    1) when are you pressing the outside numbers? My strategy is to press inside out. If 6/8 are at 180 I press outside 102 (quater each outside number). I typically just collect outside hits and only press when 6/8 hits. This way I am spreading my money out. 6/8 don't grow as quick but the payout from 4/10 is greater. In a perfect world, I alternate press & collect for each 6/8 hit but this depends on what numbers are hitting

    2) Are you considering a regression? Once you get to 420, consider regressing back to 102 or 240. This way you lock in your profits. Then you can press back up to your max and repeat. What I like to do is get all numbers to a level then start pressing. Get all numbers to pay out $50 ($25 4/10 $35 5/9 $42 6/8). Once I've collected $200 at this level, I start pressing to the next level ($100 pay out, $200, $350, $500)

    3) Qualify a roll: Use the Five Count. Start counting once the point is established and only count place numbers (don't count horn). Once this count is 5 then proceed with your original strategy. This helps on cold tables and when your bankroll is low. The downside to this is when you get someone who is on his 7th count and then BLAM!!! This method avoids the point-seven awfulness.

    4) go on YT and look up inside the casion or Live craps. These are videos in actual casinos. Get mental reps using your strategy during the video. There are lots of 20+ rolls session on there. Once you get a roll that is 40 min / 50 rolls you are going to make some real money.

    5) Do you have a stop loss? How much will you lose before you catch that plane back home? Same principal as 10K just in reverse.

    Good luck to you. I will be in Vegas week of the 4th and flying out morning of 4th. Hopefully I warm the tables up for you1
     
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  8. The Midnight Skulker, Jun 17, 2020

    The Midnight Skulker

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    I can't give a rating without some clarifications.
    • Are your place bets working on the comeout?
    • What do you do with a place bet when its number becomes the point?
    • The first time a place bet hits do you distribute the entire $119 ($100 outside plus press up the number that hit)?
    My preliminary thought is that you do not have a very good chance of doubling your stake; it takes too many hits to accumulate a significant profit for a series. OTOH I think your survival risk of ruin for the weekend is pretty good; 6's and 8's have to go into hiding to destroy you. I second Chip Magnet's advice above: get WinCraps Pro and run a few sample sessions to get an idea of what you can expect.

    PS. Barney's questions above fall into the category of inside jokes; it is therefore not surprising that most of them were unintelligible. Even forum veterans have trouble understanding him most of the time, particularly when he addresses his buddy the late Max Plank...in German! Perhaps the following will provide some enlightenment.
    • Supperick had a craps table that was allegedly stolen during his absence by a house guest.
    • "DI" is short for Dice Influence(r).
    • Lone irish digit is Barney's stable...er, roommate. He has a cyber-business selling various crapshooter apparel made mostly from roadkill.
    • Dicespeak is a technique for interpreting the results of a roll as favorable or unfavorable purveyed by another forum member.
    • Obie1 and sixshooter offer for sale a betting system called The Strategy.
    • Bonetracker is a spreadsheet that analyzes roll results and, as I understand it, takes a guess at what set has the best chance to produce a given result if the dice can be thrown with some consistency. Chi-square is a statistic Bonetracker calculates; it gives the probability that the difference between the distribution of results actually obtained and their theoretical distribution is due to random chance.
    • Another forum member has devoted some effort to determining why opposite sides of standard dice sum to seven.
     
    #8

  9. Liman

    Liman Member

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    don't bet field get to full odds on pass line bet first, then expand to bets like field.
     
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  10. DeMango, Jun 19, 2020

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    An Excel spreadsheet taking a guess?
     
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  11. von duck, Jun 20, 2020

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    By the way, this guy isn't DeMango. He's a pinch hitter. The "smart money" is, that it's really Mssthis2. :cool:
     
    #11
  12. basicstrategy777, Jun 20, 2020

    basicstrategy777

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    too much money up front..........for me............first 3 or 4 rolls critical......can get wiped out quickly.......need to prevent this by easing into your betting and hedging with come bets early.....IMHO........you will have time to bet up as the table warrents.......and remember......You can't make it happen.

    777
     
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  13. von duck, Jun 20, 2020

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    Can't make it happen? :confused: You're not gonna tell DeMango are you? :cool:
     
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  14. Liman

    Liman Member

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    heres a good strategy for this year.
    5000 dollars.
    depending on your age and family

    if you have parents alive and healthy, give them 1000 dollars of that money and tell them to go away for a weekend after the virus stuff is gone, treat them.
    if you are married also, give 3000 of that to your wife, tell her to go on a shopping spree.
    if you have children, divide the final 1000 equally and tell them to enjoy.

    if you aren't married, give more to your parents.
    if you don't have parents, give more to wife and children.
    If you are single, put 4000 into an IRA and spend 1000 on yourself and SO over the course of a few nights.

    That's my strategy. ofcourse it might have to be tweaked depending on your domestic situation, but you get the idea.

    Ive used this strategy many times over the past 42 years of marriage. its worked well. and my children never complain.(neither of us have parents for the past 35 years)
     
    #14
  15. basicstrategy777, Jun 20, 2020

    basicstrategy777

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    where have i heard....hookers and blow....
     
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  16. KokomoJoe4, Jun 20, 2020

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    The most important thing is that you play how YOU want to play. It is your money and your time.

    You mention a quarter line bet but do not mention odds. The four line bets are the best bets on the table, and are even better if you are parlaying your come out winners and placing odds when the come out goes to a box number.

    One hit on the six or eight gets you $119. Two hits gets you close to collecting your outlay.

    With the field playing, you collect on every outcome except 5 and 7, with a 26/36 = 72% win likelihood for every roll. Get the five covered on a winner and you are at 83%.

    You'll probably do OK with this sort of play, unless the 6's and 8's aren't showing.

    The size of your bankroll will help you survive some really bad hands, and if you have too many of these, scrap the method and try something else.

    Good luck! Where are you staying and where do you plan to play?

    oops. Need to read more carefully. You did describe how you will play odds four rolls after come out. Now I think that you have too much at risk from the start. Despite the fact that odds are the best bet on the table, they do NOT increase the likelihood of your pass line point returning. They only increase variance, which unfortunately works both ways.

    So seeing your additional $75-125 at risk almost at the start, I would suggest starting the 6 and 8 with a bit less than $102.

    You're risking $254 to win $119 max on one roll, then risking up to $379 to win $175. While you will have action and often be collecting winnings, the seven has a habit of showing at the wrong time.

    I think it smarter to avoid too much action, and to play so that you win more than the amount at risk. Out of necessity, this will involve fewer wagers at a time.
     
    #16
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2020
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  17. Liman

    Liman Member

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    hey, if that's someones thing, well, keep some of it for your ira or 401K plan, enjoy the rest.
     
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  18. SevenOut, Jul 1, 2020

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    Very optimistic System.

    Changing Tables after a Big Loss does not change the Table's House Advantage. It just changes the Table you are playing. If your game is breaking even at the worst, you may be at the table long enough to catch the... long roll.

    Wagering on the 5 and 9 with winnings on the 6 and 8 sounds good on Theory, but maybe consider the 5 and 9, take on a bit more risk, larger payoff and then start on the 6 and 8.

    You do not mention the Hard Way 6 or/and 8. Skip the Field. It is for Women and those wearing Skunk Hats. Use that money for the Hard Way 6 and 8 when you have money taken from the 5 and 9 winnings.

    I have had better runs on Hard Way 6's and 8's at times when nothing else is repeating. Sucker bets are for those with loose chips to take on the risk.

    Bankrolls do not affect the House Advantage. You can just lose faster or win faster.... but you must have an idea when to QUIT. The House always wins in the long game plan.

    Make sure the table gives you COMPS. At least on a wipe out you can get a good meal and maybe an upgrade to a nicer room.

    Good Luck. There is NO SKILL needed to Win or Lose. You play long enough, you will Lose. Make it short and sweet and leave near even, even or a modest winner. Lottery Tickets are for wins that will take care of you for life.

    With a Big Bankroll... this is the Don't Pass Player's dream. You may consider playing the Dark Side or watch how those guys operate. They even Shoot to Lose to... WIN.
     
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  19. von duck, Jul 3, 2020

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    Welcome back (HEAVY-DOWNER). :) How's that tour of the country's "greatest" prisons, going? :confused: Nothing like a selfie, sitting in the "chair" to brighten a guy's day. :cool:
     
    #19