A case for the Hardways

Discussion in 'Prop Bets & Side Bets' started by themutman, Apr 24, 2012.

  1. themutman, Apr 24, 2012

    themutman

    themutman Member

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2012
    Messages:
    10
    Likes Received:
    0
    I've seen a lot of hardways discussions and wanted to offer a theory.

    First, as a math guy, I acknowledge the high vig working against me, but when you are looking for some action, we sometimes have to turn a blind eye for a little bit.

    As with any good system, you want to find a 'hot' table :) But what I mean is if you get a general feel that shooters are holding the dice longer than usual at a table, you may want to try this. Let's say I put out $5 per hardway. What I do know is that I will only lose $20 total to the 7-out, as it will only occur once on the shooter's roll. So as I see it, if I can hit 1 hardway I will in theory, be ahead. (I covered my $20 plus either $15 or $25). In doing so, as each hardway is hit, I will be getting paid at a 9-1 price for a 4-1 bet (for 6 and 8) and 7-1 for a 2-1 bet (for 4 and 10). These are the chances of losing the hardway to a 'soft' number.

    Again, I know the true odds working against me and he could easily 7 out when I put my money down. But the math while he is shooting does intrigue me.
     
    #1
  2. Greatest 7 Shooter in the World, Apr 24, 2012

    Greatest 7 Shooter in the World

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2011
    Messages:
    240
    Likes Received:
    3
    One thing I have seen by "die hard" hard way bettors is they have a buy bet that covers there hardway bet so when the shooter throws a 2-4 you push on your hardway action. If you do not do something like this you loose to so many combos and of course any 7 so you would be felted quick. but I do agree that if played correctly the math can give you a advantage. Most don't understand that side of the game. good luck......
     
    #2
  3. epenak, Apr 28, 2012

    epenak

    epenak Member

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2011
    Messages:
    67
    Likes Received:
    0
    This is particularly true if you see the shooter's dice before the toss and s/he is showing doubles on any face (I'm not talking about snake eyes and boxcars). If they are having long sessions and setting the dice, you might be in good position to capitalize on the odds. The odds are 1 in 10 (i.e. 4 rolls of a 6/8 and 6 rolls of a 7 to lose but 1 hardway 6/8 to win) but you get paid at 1 in 9 (the casino keeps a buck for rent), so you need to win twice for every 9 bad (for your hardway) rolls to be ahead.

    If their chip rail is pretty full, that is another good indicator. :)
     
    #3
  4. Jewbacca, Jun 19, 2012

    Jewbacca

    Jewbacca Member

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2012
    Messages:
    28
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Washington
    I'm a hard-core hard-ways bettor myself. Before, I never knew of the huge advantage the house has on hard-ways, all I knew was that I won...a lot! It always seems like they start hitting once I get through my first point and start on the second. Yes, I know it sounds superstitious, but I can't argue with consistency. I always throw 2$ minimum at each one, and usually double up on the point if it's is an even number. If I see a shooter throwing a lot of doubles, or even just the same number several times, hard-way or not, I'll start upping that number by a unit every time it hits. I may end up losing 20-30$ when it hits soft, but when it hits hard, and I've got 40-50$ stacked on there, it pays off. I've really only done it once or twice, but both times it paid off.
     
    #4
  5. jason1981, Jun 4, 2013

    jason1981

    jason1981 Member

    Joined:
    May 18, 2013
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    stick left 1
    I have seen "don't" players take odds against the 4 or 10 and hedge bet the hard 4 or 10 for enough to cover the dont pass and the odds bet....there are only three dice combinations to beat either the 4 or 10 don't bet once the point is established as one of those numbers and this strategy removes one of the ways to lose, but cuts into the winnings....savvy play? maybe...
     
    #5

  6. Liman

    Liman Member

    Joined:
    May 4, 2013
    Messages:
    9,209
    Likes Received:
    8,743
    if you want to play hardways, mosey on down to Aqueduct casino in queens ny.
    its real dice, just no player touches them. A machine shakes up the dice.....but.......
    you can see the last 50 or 100 rolls, and the board tells you how many rolls its been since that hardway has been hit.
    while dice have no memory, I usually don't play hardways, but when Im there, if theres been over 200 rolls, I start betting that hardway.
    185-190 ways since hard six or eight, only because they pay a bit more.

    have I been successful? Ive only actually paid attention to the hardways 4 or 5 times, noting the last time since it was hit.

    2 times it worked out well, I hit the hardway only losing my original bet to a soft number twice.

    I dont remember it working the other 2 or 3 times.

    I just think its nice that every combo the dice roll is recorded, as Im way too lazy to write them all down constantly.
     
    #6
  7. SevenOut, Jun 13, 2013

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2012
    Messages:
    2,339
    Likes Received:
    1,492
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    89005
    I AM the hardway player. I ALWAYS include hardway bets in my game plan. I ALWAYS PLAY the same game plan.

    I am an Inside Player. The 5, 6, 8 and 9. When any of those numbers are POINT, I put either $32 or $34 as Place Bets. My $5 or $10 Pass Line bet is backed up with 5X odds on the 6 or 8, 6X odds on the 5 or 9 (I play at a 5X maximum odds Casino). I always play the Hard 6 and 8 with a $5 bet each. If I am at a winning table with my inside numbers repeating... I will use... house chips... and press my hardways up to $10, while increasing my inside bets. If a 6 or 8 comes soft, I lose the hardway and toss out a $5 chip and will press up as soon as I have a winner on my Place Bets. This way my LOSSES on the hardway are covered by my WINS on the Place Bets. In my years of playing Craps... my HARDWAY BETS ARE MY BIGGEST PROFIT MAKER. Then Pass Line and Odds winnings and/or my Place Bet winnings. Then Place Bets, if the table is choppy and short rolls per game.

    When Hardways are NOT HITTING... my Pass Line and Odds winnings are first source of winnings. Although on my largest winning sessions, I can have my hardways pressed to $20 to $25 (the maximum I will play at any time with my $200 bankroll game). As my Place Bets increase, I increase my hardways with profit made from my other bets. So I never play more than $5 on the hard 6 or 8, IF I am not winning on my Place Bets. Otherwise the House Advantage on the Hardways will eat your lunch, your bankroll and your confidence.

    Now... if the 4 or 10 is point. I play the 4 OR 10 with at least 5X odds and a $5 hardway bet. Because this shooter could throw a lot of other numbers to win or lose on point, I will Place the 6 AND 8 for the table minimum, be it $6 on a $5 table, or $12 on a $10 table. Then play the hardways for $5 each or if I am using profits from the game... $10 each on the hard 6, hard 8 and hard 4/10.

    The British tables actually pay 10 to 1, rather than the US game 9 to 1. They might have changed, but I do not think so. The British roulette also is a 0 wheel (37 numbers), while the US wheel is a 0 and 00 table (38 numbers). I like those odds on the British Craps table!

    To summarize... I would rather play the Hardways, any day than... the rest of the proposition bets in front of the Stickman. Although in a weak moment I will throw a $1 or $5 chip on some wild moments during a hot game.

    I also take my Hardways... OFF... on a Come Out roll. I have seen a hard 6/8 on a Come Out roll to be won by a hardway... which makes you think about having them working during the Come Out... but then to be playing correctly I would have to have my Place Bet(s) WORKING as well.

    This is my Case for the Hardways.
     
    #7
  8. rudeboy99, Jul 2, 2013

    rudeboy99

    rudeboy99 Member

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2012
    Messages:
    917
    Likes Received:
    297
    Location:
    Reno, NV
    SevenOut, is it possible that the layout read 10 FOR 1 in England? That's how they worked it on ALL prop bets on two different British managed cruise ship casinos in the Caribbean that I worked way back when....right after the Civil War I think...
     
    #8
  9. basicstrategy777, Jul 2, 2013

    basicstrategy777

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2010
    Messages:
    10,246
    Likes Received:
    9,910
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    CT.
    Out West hardways automatically are working on the come-out..........East, there are off.

    777
     
    #9
  10. SevenOut, Jul 2, 2013

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2012
    Messages:
    2,339
    Likes Received:
    1,492
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    89005
    ***********

    The Cruise Ships always have a way to find the worst pay offs...

    The Australian layout had 10 TO 1. The layout that was on display on the Craps Forum caught my eye as British (Australian?) since it was a 10 TO 1. My timing was terrible so never had a hard way hit, nor even stood at the table long enough to figure out how I lost so fast...

    I thought the 10 to 1 was a great idea! Never will see it here in the USA though...
     
    #10
  11. SevenOut, Jul 18, 2013

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2012
    Messages:
    2,339
    Likes Received:
    1,492
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    89005
    As much as I enjoy playing the Hardway bets... there are the non believers. Although the HA is a bit stiff and the non believers are better off in the long run to keep away from any center table play than we Hardway bettors!

    I wanted to add something that is found in the Casino Dealers Manuals for layout game plans.

    The BIG 6 and BIG 8. What do you think their purpose was to take up a premier corner of a Craps Layout?

    To back up the Hardway bettor for soft 6/8 numbers being thrown. An Off and On table play that just adds to the sucker element of playing the Hard 6 and 8. The dealer and stickman coordinate the service and I have rarely seen anyone protecting their game using this poor option. Now you know the "rest of the story", as Paul Harvey would say.
     
    #11