American Craps Academy (ACA) 2016

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by Harley, May 5, 2016.

  1. eagleeye2, May 9, 2016

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

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    #261
  2. Pressit, May 9, 2016

    Pressit

    Pressit Member

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    "I don't see someone winning several hundred as a king's ransom." Just don't recall anyone here saying saying they are winning a king's ransom. I think TT posted several weeks ago he walked away with over $1400. A nice take, but not a king's ransom.
     
    #262
  3. wonko33, May 9, 2016

    wonko33

    wonko33 Member

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    Statements like these show a poor understanding of what probability and statistical math is all about. Math is not only correct on long term, it is accurate all the time, it just tends to approach basic probabilities in the long run.

    What does it mean when you say "math stood on it's head"? Do you mean something improbable happened? Improbable things happen all the time, math doesn't say these things don't happen, it just gives you a calculation of how rare those event were. It doesn't predict, it doesn't get kicked in the balls when you don't roll a 7 in 20 rolls, it doesn't say only probable things happen.
     
    #263
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  4. Dr. Philips, May 9, 2016

    Dr. Philips

    Dr. Philips Member

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    I've been analyzing some of the posters on this site. In my Professional opinion Craps Poopshoot, Eagleeye2, and Harley are all the same person posting.

    In other words, My professional opinion is that Harley has at least 2 sock puppets. Now everyone can see why he rides on the 'short bus"

    also, my analysis shows that TDVegas and Onautopilot are real posters and are very intellegent.


    .
     
    #264
  5. betwthelines, May 9, 2016

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    wrong? in what way?

    quoting your post, i isolated a question of yours: "Do you know anyone who has played the long term math game?"...my straight answer was "yes", which is not "wrong" in any sense: I DO KNOW ONE...

    i amplified this a bit---and (i thought) gave you a tip of the hat as implicitly your question "anticipates" the answer is "no"---by further stating that there is ONLY ONE known in the world that plays tough exclusively you were thus really, really close to being totally correct with your assumed answer...(btw by posting this assertion on craps forums for about 20 years it has never been disputed...i should probably add, though, that at one time there were two but the other i do believe has left this veil of tears but in any case is no longer "known")

    BUT HAVING SAID ALL THAT I HAVE TO SAY THAT, YES, YOU "GOT ME"!!...a "pure" Tough Craps player would indeed be playing dark...however The Tough Craps player does have a secondary objective and that is to WIN HUGE...no, no, no, i mean HUGE...the negative skew of the dark side is not efficient for this objective and so the Tough Craps player goes with the next best, by mere hundreths of a percent, thing: pass and come odds...he does however play the "math" exclusively which was the subject of your question...

    i would post a link titled "Tough Craps" for further explication (of course you can search here and find it) but am reluctant to do so because it is such a poor, long-winded attempt at explaining the TC play...over the years i have struggled mightily to explicate the Tough Craps player's play in brief (especially), succinct and clear terms...i did a pretty good one on the old rgc bored once but can't seem to find it...

    if i get any interest or feed back i would try to lay it out again in clearer terms...

    tom p
     
    #265
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  6. Settingcanthurt, May 9, 2016

    Settingcanthurt

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    Did not say where unless I missed it.
     
    #266
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  7. Pressit, May 9, 2016

    Pressit

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    Sure always interested in what others have to say.
     
    #267
  8. Pressit, May 9, 2016

    Pressit

    Pressit Member

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    Where? I am assuming LV. PM SR or Harley they can better fill you in with the details
     
    #268
  9. Pressit, May 9, 2016

    Pressit

    Pressit Member

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    Really, never knew that? Interesting, can you provide any supporting documentation to support your claims?
     
    #269
  10. eagleeye2, May 9, 2016

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

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    Fake Dr. Phillips,

    You must have brown eyes, because you are FULL of SHIT above your ears!

    eagleeye2 is only eagleeye2; no other posters, as you proclaim, DUH!

    eagleeye2
     
    #270
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  11. Onautopilot, May 9, 2016

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    "math gets stood on its head"........my answer to this is the same as wonko33's answer!
     
    #271
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  12. eagleeye2, May 9, 2016

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

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    Fake Dr. Phillips,

    Your Professional opinion STINKS, both TDVegas & Onautopilot have admitted that they cannot comprehend the following, important to the game of CRAPS:

    http://www.crapsforum.com/threads/american-craps-academy-aca-2016.12648/page-14

    Such a shame...

    eagleeye2
     
    #272
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  13. Onautopilot, May 9, 2016

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    It is an analysis of the statistical data to determine if a bias in random exists, or at least give a percentage of confidence that one exists. Basically how much deviation from expectation is present....the higher the deviation, the higher the confidence level that a bias exists.

    With only a slight bias, the amount of data required is probably beyond most DI's capabilities of compiling.

    If you want to read more on it...Google "identifying a bias in random chance".
     
    #273
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  14. eagleeye2, May 9, 2016

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

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    Fake Dr. Phillips,

    Your Professional opinion STINKS, both TDVegas & Onautopilot have admitted that they cannot comprehend the following, important to the game of CRAPS.

    http://www.crapsforum.com/threads/american-craps-academy-aca-2016.12648/page-14

    Such a shame...

    eagleeye2
     
    #274
  15. Pressit, May 9, 2016

    Pressit

    Pressit Member

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    I agree with the general math, but when a #9 is rolled 7 times in 20 rolls that skews the math. So where am I going wrong?
     
    #275
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  16. TDVegas, May 9, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    With different table conditions, different spot at the rail, chips on the table, elbows, microfibers and an inability to 100% replicate your toss and landing spot time after time, coinciding with those little pyramids and just a simple "bounce".....I just fail to see how someone thinks they can de-randomize craps with any confidence level.
     
    #276
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  17. TDVegas, May 9, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    Short term variance. It's the only thing that allows us to win. Without it, there is no craps. Plus, maybe a 9 is rolled 7 times in 20 rolls. Unless you can see into the future and know it's coming...it doesn't mean a whole lot. If you are lucky enough to be betting on it...kudos.

    The guy betting the 5 is probably kicking himself.
     
    #277
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  18. Onautopilot, May 9, 2016

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    It does not skew the math at all. But the math can give you the probability of that happening, the odds of it happening.

    If it happened consistently, the math could also be used to show that it was maybe not just a variance anomaly, but could possibly be a bias in the random number generator....in this case, the dice rolls.

    The math is just a tool, it doesn't predict, or guarantee anything!
     
    #278
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  19. tabletop123, May 9, 2016

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    That is just it! You cannot deramdomize the dice with any confidence level. Why do you think so many so-called stellar shooters are betting at the red chip level,.i am NOT saying that ALL di's bet small, but most are VERY cautious with their betting. , Freak's trip report about Heavy & companie's betting prowess ( or lack thereof) says it all! I know that when i am MIGHTILY MISTAKEN, thinking i have an advantage, I BET IT UP! Sure, i get my nuts clipped, A LOT, but some of these guys claim "Advantage", but if you actually caught them at the tables, its more like "Disadvantage"betting, & if you viewed the countenance on their faces, it'd appear as if they were headed to the Gas Chamber!
     
    #279
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  20. TDVegas, May 9, 2016

    TDVegas

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    There's no player here who hasn't put together great rolls. The game allows for it. Deciphering what is short term variance, random tossing vs. some cognitive understanding that there is something else going on (influence) is a fools game, IMO.

    I'm not suggesting to disavow your thoughts when playing and 86'ing the idea in your head that there is something beyond random going on...but with everything considered...I fail to see how it has been interpreted as influence. There's just too many twists, turns and bounces to think that.
     
    #280
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