Belmont Stakes 2018

Discussion in 'Offtopic Lounge' started by MisterInside, May 19, 2018.

  1. MisterInside, May 19, 2018

    MisterInside

    MisterInside Member

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    What a race. 5 horses within 2 lengths. Justify did it again. Undefeated in 5 lifetime starts.
    Sensational. What a race. Kudos to fast closing Bravazo who finished 2nd. What a race.

    Justify must be pooped. He needs some serious rest before he goes for the Big One
    in 3 weeks. The enemies in New York have been resting and waiting for you. Dirty,
    chicken, sissies that they are. The date will be June 9th. That will be exactly 45 years
    since that other beautiful chestnut, Secretariat, won his Big One. I like that 45 year thing.
    Good ju-ju. If you are too tired to run, we will understand. The Preakness was a very hard race for you.

    MisterInside's Belmont morning line......Justify 7/5 (I hope that he is healthy enough to run)

    Bleacher is reporting Belmont odds as Yes -120; No -120 (generous of them, not)

    Odds Shark odds: Justify +125; Audible +400; Good Magic +550; My Boy Jack +800; Bravazo +800; Hofburg +900; Tenfold +1100; Blended Citizen +1200; Vino Rosso +2000; Solomini +2500;
    Instilled Regard +3300; Machismo +3300.

    Let the debating begin.
     
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    Last edited: May 19, 2018
  2. AzDice, May 19, 2018

    AzDice

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    I've only been interested in the Triple Crown from the year that California Chrome came up short in the Belmont.
    I was reading what his owner was saying about it not being fair that horses could enter the Belmont without running the two previous legs of the Triple Crown.
    I agreed with him because I didn't know racing history.
     
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  3. Twelve4s, May 20, 2018

    Twelve4s

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    Bravasso will have an extra 330 feet to run down Justify at the Belmont. If he’d had an extra 50 feet yesterday he’d of won. Unless Smith was playing with the field and conserving his ride for the Triple Crown. Smith is a great jockey.
     
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  4. MisterInside, May 20, 2018

    MisterInside

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    I had the 7/8 exacta. I did NOT have 8/7. There was about a 15 foot window of a 7/8 exacta. You are absolutely right. A perfectly timed and anticipated trip by Mike Smith. Incredible to be that good at your craft at age 52. What an exciting finish. Coming out of the fog and 5 horses within 2 lengths at the wire. I'll never forget this one.
     
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  5. MisterInside, May 20, 2018

    MisterInside

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  6. yacraps, May 20, 2018

    yacraps

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    Hello
     
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  7. AzDice, May 20, 2018

    AzDice

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    Do you think he will ever have a horse race in the Belmont without having raced in the previous two legs of the Triple Crown?
    I kind of understand why they do it. One reason would be by the time they get to the Belmont it might only be a four horse race if you don't let anyone else in. Most owners drop out because they already tried twice and couldn't even show or their horse gets injured.
    Ok, researchers.....
    Has any horse who ran in either of the first two legs and lost to the horse who is trying for the Triple Crown come back to beat them in the Belmont?
    For example. Bravazo lost to Justify in the preakness. If Bravazo beats justify in the Belmont denying him the Triple Crown.
    Has this happened before
     
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  8. yacraps, May 20, 2018

    yacraps

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    That is a really good point and off the top of my head I don't know the answer to your question I would guess that it hasn't happened personally I like the way they have it if you want to be known as a triple crown super horse...then you gota be able to take on and beat all challengers all three races are separate events each race has there own qualifying rules the Derby is the Derby and so on the purses are not linked
     
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  9. MisterInside, May 20, 2018

    MisterInside

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    A picture is worth 1000 words. And Steve Coburn's 1000 words are like a combination of Bill O'Reilly and Morton Downey Jr.

    Great post. We might see a rerun in 20 days.
     
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  10. MisterInside, May 20, 2018

    MisterInside

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    Yes. Touch Gold in 1997 lost the Preakness and kept Silver Charm from winning the Triple Crown by winning the Belmont. Easy Goer did it to Sunday Silence in 1989. I think it probably happened more times.
     
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  11. AzDice, May 20, 2018

    AzDice

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    I'm thinking about taking Bravazo to win and some more exacta boxes with him.
     
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  12. AzDice, May 20, 2018

    AzDice

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    Thank you for the history.
     
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  13. random_roller, May 20, 2018

    random_roller

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    Yeah, but Smith screwed up in the 2010 Breeder's Cup and allowed Zenyatta to fall too far behind (even for a horse that seemingly enjoyed to race that way) and waited a bit too long before starting to close the gap on the other horses in that race. Otherwise, Zenyatta would have retired 20-0.




     
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  14. yacraps, May 21, 2018

    yacraps

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    That is really interesting thanks for the info...it just never dawned on me
     
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  15. yacraps, May 21, 2018

    yacraps

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    Az thanks for bring this to light when it gets closer to the 9th of June it will get real exciting
     
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  16. NokTang, May 21, 2018

    NokTang

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    I've never really studied horse racing. Does the jockey really make that big a difference? I mean, in laymen s terms, can he/she really control the horse's speed with those very slight movements both body and tugs on the reins and the whip? Thanks.
     
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  17. MisterInside, May 21, 2018

    MisterInside

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    I'm just a fan and not a horse expert. You pose a couple great questions. I believe that the horse and trainer are 90% of the equation and the jockey is 10%. The very best jocks in that top 10% move a horse up in performance. When I handicap, I circle these top 10% on the racing form. It doesn't mean that a top jock is a prerequisite to selecting a horse to bet, but a top jock influences my decision. A top jock is one who wins > 20% of his races. Similarly, a top trainer wins > 20% of his races. Baffert in 31% year-to-date; Pletcher 29%; Chad Brown 30%.This is like hitting .400 in baseball. 52 year old Mike Smith is 22% YTD. Lots and lots of subjectivity in horse race handicapping. I assure you that life-to-date, I am a loser at the track. I've always been fascinated by the mathematics of gambling and the statistics of handicapping. The old saying.....You can beat a race but you can't beat the races.

    As a sports fan, my interest in baseball, football and basketball has waned a great deal, but my interest in horse racing has remained high.
     
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  18. NokTang, May 21, 2018

    NokTang

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    Thanks for your gracious reply. The emphasis on the Trainer is curious. I just watched a youtube of Justify arriving back "home" in Kentucky. The Trainer was no where to be seen. They, said Trainers, seem to just tell the jockey to guide the horse this way or that way etc., not much emphasis on the work outs at least that I can see. It is curious the horse doesn't really work out either between races other than jogging around. Constant hype about the horse being "tired" by the experts. You didn't mention D. Wayne Lucas? Is he in that elite group of trainers who win a lot?
     
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  19. basicstrategy777, May 21, 2018

    basicstrategy777

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    There are many aspects to being a good handicapper......you must be aware of several things....the horse, his breading , his heart, his class........the trainer....the jockey.....

    You mentioned the jockey...lets look at that...

    A quick look at the standings will tell you the top jocky's at the track...but he is more than a statistic, he is an athelete...he is a person with weight problems, financial problems,marital problems, and has hasslles with trainers, owners,, other jockeys...most jockeys don't make much and struggle....like all atheletes they make mistakes.....a switch from a top jockey to an average jockey is usually an indication the horse can't win...BUT, it might also mean the trainer is looking for a better price....you should take note of who is hot and who is not.......some jockeys specialize in specific areas...some are front runners...some are good with 2 year olds and maidens...some are good on turf...some are good in slop.....on dirt the horse gives you better feedback than on turf, the subconcious feedback from the pounding of the horses hooves does this..this feedback is not pronounced on turf......young jockeys must be put in their place and the old pro's will do this in a race..he can be crowded in a turn or buried in a speed duel......you should notice riding style...some like the rail, if the rail is dead you're in trouble...somelike the outside and this might lose them too much ground, maybe they had an accident in the rail in the past....some have a good feel for track bias, this will help you.....some horses need strong handling and some jockeys are better at doing this than others......sometimes you are better off with an average jockey as a top jockey might not be too good on turf, or not too good on an off track, or not too good with 2 year olds....sometimes a jockey is forced to accept a mounrt because he rides regularly for that owner......

    Jockeys are important in a horse race.....you must know what they are good at...not good at....read between the lines why a trainer picked him.........and if he is hot, ride that horse till he drops.

    There is so, so much to handicapping and jockey's is part of it.

    They can win a race or lose it for you, even if you have a good horse.........kinda like racing a car at the drag strip....even if you have the fastest car you can lose because the driver messed up...often the driver dictates the results, not the car.

    777
     
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    Last edited: May 21, 2018
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  20. Twelve4s, May 21, 2018

    Twelve4s

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    I’m sure I can find some YouTube posts showing Brett Favre throwing one of his many game losing interceptions. Would that prove that he’s not a hall of fame quarterback? IMHO, he literally resurrected the Packers as a franchise. He was loved by many and loathed by many, but he could create excitement on the field, like few others. Unless you’ve spent time in the saddle or no saddle, it will be hard to appreciate just how amazing a feat it is for a 52 year old man to do what Smith is doing. I am in awe of his metal.
     
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