Benjamin Franklin

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by Night Attack, Jun 18, 2019.

  1. Night Attack, Jun 18, 2019

    Night Attack

    Night Attack Member

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    If I asked you to make $100 at craps, how much buy in would you need and what strategy would you employ?
    For the purpose of this exercise let us assume we are betting on random rollers.
     
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  2. von duck, Jun 18, 2019

    von duck

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    I will require $20 million (Australian). When can you mail me the cash? :)
     
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  3. basicstrategy777, Jun 18, 2019

    basicstrategy777

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    The formula is based on percentages.........if you walked up to the table with 10 dollars and I walked up to the table with 1000 dollars.......which one of us has the better chance to win 100 dollars.........in my book I say that buy in is one of the criutical components in a winning formula......you need money to play the game and the more you bring and the lower your win goal the greater your chance to acheive it.

    Is winning 10% reasonable....doable....if buy in for 1000........

    777
     
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  4. Night Attack, Jun 18, 2019

    Night Attack

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    I agree whole heartedly.

    Yes I think it is reasonable....doable....if buy in for 1000.....if you have the betting strategy to go with it. And I mean a strategy that will stand up over the long term. Of course you will eventually get stung for the whole grand but can you muster up enough of those Ben Franklins to cover that loss?

    Now where can I mail you the $20m AUD since ducks have no use for money, only stale bread soaked in a pond.
     
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  5. Night Attack, Jun 18, 2019

    Night Attack

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    I should be able to mail it to you in the year 2525 if man is still alive....
     
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  6. Mssthis1, Jun 18, 2019

    Mssthis1

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    A $10 line bet, double odds, $12 six and eight followed by 2 come bets with double odds. $12 six and eight would come down if one of them hadn't hit after 3 rolls. If a hand developed press 50% after my initial hand investment was recouped.

    Once what was in my rail and removeable bets on the layout equaled $100 profit I'd take them down and hopefully get some bonus bucks with what was left on the layout.

    If I walked up to a table that had several players but none of them had any money in their rail to speak of I would play a $10 DP, double odds and 3 DC bets max with double odds.

    $500 initial buy in with backup in my pocket if needed.
     
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  7. KokomoJoe4, Jun 18, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

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    With semi-regularity, I can win $100 with my $300 buy-in, playing a very conservative game of craps - one bet at a time, increasing bet size with a winner and always parlaying come out winners.

    Play is seldom interesting, and losing occurs even more semi-regularly than winning, but it's the best play I have come up with.
     
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  8. The Midnight Skulker, Jun 18, 2019

    The Midnight Skulker

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    This part of your problem requires the specification of an additional parameter: How many times is the player going to do this? Is this a one off while waiting for a companion to finish his/her business in the restroom, or is this a daily after-lunch exercise? As a one off I would be looking for the probability of success, whereas for a daily exercise I would want to minimize the house advantage.

    Just for kicks I assumed the one off case and rigged up a spreadsheet for the strategy I guessed would give me the best chance of satisfying the victory conditions: a Grand Simple Martingale laying no-4 or no-10. The most number of 4's before 7 I can claim I have seen is, by coincidence, 7 -- turns out that is expected to happen once in 2187 observations on average -- and would require a bankroll of $218,600. (Curses! Wouldn't you know it? I just put my last quarter million on one of the new houses around Vegas that TD gave me a heads up on.) Not being a whale (anymore) I would probably have to accept a 1 in 243 (5 consecutive losses) chance of busting a $24,200 bankroll.

    [While waiting for resources I realized I neglected to account for vigorish, hence the bankrolls above are minimums. Maybe I'll recalculate after moving into my new Vegas digs, but feel free to engage in other activities in the mean time.]
     
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    Last edited: Jun 19, 2019
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  9. von duck, Jun 18, 2019

    von duck

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  10. von duck, Jun 18, 2019

    von duck

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  11. The Comeback Kid, Jun 18, 2019

    The Comeback Kid

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    What would Ben do? Let’s look at what he said…
    ”By failing to prepare, you prepare to fail.” Mmmm.
    “He that has patience, can have what he will.” Mmmm.
    “Beware of little expenses. A small leak will sink even a great ship.“ Mmmmm.

    Sometimes having more resources then patience can be a trap, for one may be tempted to throw good money at bad, until the game grinds you to ruin before you even know what hit you. To avoid getting caught in a bad momentum, here’s what I think Ben would do…

    Take the $Grand & divide it up into 5-$200 session buy-ins. If you deplete your resources for that session, you’re done for that session & take a break. Down, but not out. Regroup. This is how the Revolution was won. And don’t forget to treat yourself, for Ben also said, “Beer is proof that God loves us & wants us to be happy.”

    A few Fun Ben Facts:
    - dropped out of middle school when he was 12
    - earned honorary degrees from Harvard, Yale & others
    - by 1785 became the richest man in America
    - retired at the age of 42 a millionaire & became a "gentleman of leisure"
    - refused to patented many of his inventions, feeling that it was enough to know that others
    are helped by his creations.
    - Was a champion chess player & is in the swimming hall of fame.
    - Like to sit in front of his window naked & take "Air Baths"
     
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  12. von duck, Jun 18, 2019

    von duck

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    He said "MAKE" $100, not lose a hundred. :confused:
     
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  13. von duck, Jun 18, 2019

    von duck

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    If you were really Australian, this thread would have been titled, " John Tebbutt". :confused: Tell me N.A., did Australia really start out as a "penis colony"? :cool:
     
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  14. basicstrategy777, Jun 18, 2019

    basicstrategy777

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    Ben also left an annuity to the cities of Philadelphia and Boston......The city of Boston cashed it in in 1993.

    777
     
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  15. Night Attack, Jun 19, 2019

    Night Attack

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    Thanks for the reply mssthis1. Good or bad at least you answered the question and backed it up with a betting strategy.
    I'll need to give this a bit more thought than just thinking I'll be down a hundred bucks if a seven shows straight after the two come bets travel.
     
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  16. Night Attack, Jun 19, 2019

    Night Attack

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    I tried your system once and I got hosed. Never came back to it but I do like the one bet at a time part because I usually only win one bet at a time so it makes sense to only lose one bet at a time as well.
     
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  17. Night Attack, Jun 19, 2019

    Night Attack

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    I think I'd probably reach the table maximum (and my comfort level) at my local joint well before I get anywhere near the fifth leg in that martingale.
    Additional parameter - assume a daily exercise.
     
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  18. Night Attack, Jun 19, 2019

    Night Attack

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    Who the hell is John Tebbutt? Is he on the Aussie hundred dollar note? We've had so many versions of our note currencies in general it's hard to keep track of all these jokers. And if I have to look up who John Tebbutt is then he's a nobody. Probably some random schmuck who won a raffle and got his mug on some currency. He'll be history for the second time when we move to the next version of the hundred dollar note.
    You seem to know more about Australia's beginnings as a penal colony than I do. And you've referred to it as a penis colony before. You need some new material.
     
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  19. KokomoJoe4, Jun 19, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

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    NA,

    You need to speak with countryman Morgue about a method of play allowing multiple wins on one roll, where the most likely result is the source of your gain.

    Man, that sounds like a can't miss method of play, but even it does not always work.
     
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  20. von duck, Jun 19, 2019

    von duck

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    Spoiler alert, "Morgue the Australian" will be along soon. :confused: :)
     
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