Betting Strategy

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by Freders, Apr 30, 2013.

  1. Freders, Apr 30, 2013

    Freders

    Freders Member

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    Would someone mind explaining why this strategy wouldn't work.
    My Strategy for random rollers,

    I will wait till after the come out roll & point is established. Say the point is 8. After a roll or two, I wager $50 on the D/C and say the next point is 10. My 50 goes to the 10. To protect this bet, I immediately place $50 on the 10. So, I am betting the 10 wont roll but also the 10 will roll. Say the 10 hits, I lose the D/C 50 but win the 50 Place bet and profit 45. In the same scenario, say the 7 hits before the 10. I would lose the 50 place bet but break even on the 50 D/C bet. I would protect my bankroll and also profit if my D/C point hits. I would also keep the place working if the 8 were to hit before the 10. Is there any flaw with this strategy? Does it make any sense? I would appreciate any feedback? Thank you fellow rollers!
     
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  2. TheStoic, Apr 30, 2013

    TheStoic

    TheStoic Member

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    Ignoring your example where you should've bought the 10 instead of placing it for $50 here are my thoughts.

    I use to do the same strategy, until I got burned on the come-out several times, and gave up on this strategy as being futile. But what I did was have a $6 DP bet. Now if the point was a 4,5,9,10 I would place $5 and $6 if the point was a 6 or 8. In all scenarios it would yield a profit accept for a 6/8 7-outt. So I would recommend a increment of $6 for your Don't bet and the same number of units of $5 place bet on the point.

    My profit after surviving the come-out was so small, it would take a little more than 6 wins to recover for a 7/11 come-out loss, which as you know is about the approx odds of a 7/11 being thrown on the come-out.
     
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  3. Freders, Apr 30, 2013

    Freders

    Freders Member

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    Stoic,
    I appreciate your advice & time! Thanks!
     
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  4. Dragline, Apr 30, 2013

    Dragline

    Dragline Member

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    Yes, almost all strategies that involve a big DC bet are vulnerable on the first roll and work fine after than. Just remember a DC bet has a 22% chance of losing on that first roll.
     
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  5. Freders, Apr 30, 2013

    Freders

    Freders Member

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    Thanks Dragline! appreciate your thought
     
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  6. The Midnight Skulker, May 1, 2013

    The Midnight Skulker

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    I believe this DP/DC then place the point approach goes under the general name of Can't Lose. I ran the numbers on it some time back. You end up paying around an extra percentage point in house advantage to stabilize playing time.
     
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  7. Freders, May 1, 2013

    Freders

    Freders Member

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    Thanks Midnight....I appreciate your insight on that. So you are saying that this strategy favors the house by another 1%? Do you have the numbers on it? Easily that is...Thank you Sir!
     
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  8. basicstrategy777, May 1, 2013

    basicstrategy777

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    Every bet you make on the table has a house advantage associated with it. There is no cancelling out.

    777
     
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  9. The Midnight Skulker, May 2, 2013

    The Midnight Skulker

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    I can't find my original calculations, but I did find a spreadsheet I made up for a similar strategy, so I unmodified it. (See below.) I used a $25 Don't up front with a $24 place on 6/8, $20 place on 5/9, or a $20 buy on 4/10. The reported HA is different than I recalled, probably due to one or more of the following on this go-around.
    Ignoring barred Don't comeouts altogether, which reduces the bet handle
    Counting buy vig on wins only
    Paying buy vig from the rack instead of from the payoff
     

    Attached Files:

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  10. Freders, May 3, 2013

    Freders

    Freders Member

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    Hey Midnight
    Thank you for sharing! I appreciate you research there and extra time spent. I find this all very intriguing being new to dice control. I love numbers and probablites.

    What stretegy do you use? If you dont mind me asking. I have been practicing but havent found a strategy that I really feel comfortable with.

    Thanks!
    .
     
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  11. jkluv7, May 4, 2013

    jkluv7

    jkluv7 Member

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    You may not find a strategy to be comfortable with... As was mentioned previously, there is a HA on every bet you make. This don't/place strategy is tantamount to a 'hedge' bet... and we all the know the bad math of these types of bets.

    If you continue with this strategy of yours, do not forget to tell the dealer your Place bets are working on a Come Out roll so as not to lose your DC bets when the number hits !!

    Jeffrey
     
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  12. falcon, May 4, 2013

    falcon

    falcon Member

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    Freders: I was intrigued with your basic strategy as well as some of the responses and decided to tweak it a bit to provide a bit more player advantage of WINNING over the house noting that nothing is perfect, but on my computer "practice" sessions, it worked rather well.

    $5 Table:

    Start with the doey/don't of $5 each way.

    After the point is established, for the 4,5,9, or 10, play Don't Odds (lay) for $18 and play the DC for $5. The gambling part is that the only two numbers that can "hurt" you are the 11 or the point, otherwise one can proceed with the DC/Place bets as the point progresses.

    I think it is important to mindful of the table conditions with the real play in that if the table is choppy or cold, you will win. If the table is hot with lots of point conversions, one must be flexible enough to play it straight as a right side bettor. When the 6 or 8 becomes the point, one might abstain from play or play the Don't Odds for maybe $6 with a $5 DC and Place bet.

    I will continue to "practice" this and on Tuesday try it for real and let you know.

    777's, MS, $nake, others comments please.

    falcon
     
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  13. Freders, May 7, 2013

    Freders

    Freders Member

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    Hey Falcon, Thanks for the tweak and advice on the strategy. I hooe you do well tuesday. Where do ya play? Does anyone here play in Central city, CO? I will be in A.C Fri May 19th anyone shooting that night?

    I have been wanting to learn a decent dont strategy for those cold choppy nights. Gonna work this one out!

    Thanks!
     
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  14. The Midnight Skulker, May 7, 2013

    The Midnight Skulker

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    Before beginning a quest one needs to identify what one is looking for. In the current context this means determining what factors provide a positive, even if not profitable, experience. See http://midnightskulker.casinocitytimes.com/article/what-am-i-doin-here-1453 for my take on this subject.

    What strategy do I use? I never want to leave the table wondering what might have been. Of course I never want to leave the table bewailing what actually was either. Hence, I call my overall style conservatively aggressive. I use positive progressions, but ones that need only two consecutive wins to ensure a profit for the series. I accept that I am supposed to lose, but as a "tough" player all I need is a little luck to come out ahead, and with a little more luck than that I just might end up owning the joint. (OK, there isn't that much luck in the universe, but generating a CTR, though it has never happened, is not out of the wood.)

    When I'm dark side my strategy, though a bit complicated, is well defined.
    https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en&fromgroups;%25253B=#!msg/rec.gambling.craps/3ofLD4OILms/KY64FjVpzqsJ
    Front side not so much, though I use the same progression as on the dark side. How I bet depends on whether I or someone else is shooting.

    I use the 5-count on other shooters. At the count of four I make a $10 Pass/Come bet but do not take odds. At the count of five I make another $10 Pass/Come bet and take $15/$16 odds on both. (BTW if a Pass bet wins naturally I progress it but not the odds.) When one of these established bets wins I do not make another Pass/Come bet but I do increase my odds on the remaining one to 2x. When that bet wins I get into my main cycle: one Pass/Come bet starting with 2x odds and up to four Place bets (depending on the point) starting at $10/$12. I progress the Place bets individually as they win, and I progress the odds on my Pass/Come bets to the max allowed before progressing the flat. (When I do progress the flat I take the same odds as the the previous winning bet rather than progressing them at the time.)

    OK, here comes the watch-the-birdie part of my front side strategy on other shooters. :cheese: My Place bets, which I shuffle around when the point changes, are as follows.
    If the point is 4 I place 5, 6, and 8.
    (Assuming everyone is thinking hardway these are the
    other numbers that can be made with a two showing.)
    If the point is 5 I place 4 and 6.
    (Looking to see twos and threes.)
    If the point is 6 I place 4, 5, 8, and 9.
    (Assuming everyone is thinking hardway these are the
    other numbers that can be made with a three showing.)
    If the point is 8 I place 5, 6, 9, and 10.
    (Assuming everyone is thinking hardway these are the
    other numbers that can be made with a four showing.)
    If the point is 9 I place 8 and 10.
    (Looking to see fours and fives.)
    If the point is 10 I place 6, 8, and 9.
    (Assuming everyone is thinking hardway these are the
    other numbers that can be made with a two showing.)
    Like I said, pay no attention to the mystic behind the curtain.

    When I am shooting I bet the same as detailed above, but obviously without using the 5-count (i.e. $10 Pass with no odds, then $10 Come with $15/$16 odds on both, etc.). Of course I have to have a Pass Line bet at all times so I do not start any progression on it until I have won my Come bet. Being as I like to think I have some influence over the dice I also do not use the Place bet strategy above, but place the inside when I am trying to make a 5, 6, 8, or 9, and the outside when I am trying to make a 4 or 10.

    YMMV
     
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  15. yacraps, May 2, 2018

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

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    Midnight I lluv this strategy ....as usual your advise is 110% dead on ;)
     
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