Biased Dice detections

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by ActiveLife, Apr 9, 2015.

  1. TDVegas, Apr 18, 2015

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    You can't have it both ways. Dave will say "disregard the math because my way is better".....then when I say ok, "how about I play the boxcars"?...he'll say "oh no, the house edge is too great".

    You can't use math to make one point and then disregard it to make another...that's what he does. Beyond head scratching.
     
    #141
  2. TDVegas, Apr 18, 2015

    TDVegas

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    Even Frank Scoblete has abandoned those doey don't bets. He will tell you to forget it.
     
    #142
  3. TDVegas, Apr 18, 2015

    TDVegas

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    Fair enough...but how are you basing or what baseline are you using to determine which one is a "better bet"?

    Place the 6 for $5 or make a don't pass for $5.
    Which is the "better bet"?
     
    #143
  4. Dave G Ct, Apr 18, 2015

    Dave G Ct

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    TD
    You have to be open to new suggestions. Try out something new- see if it works. As to the 12- 12 bet yes playing it on everyroll is foolish. We are comparing 2 relatively low advantage approaches. Math is not the determining factor here because we are using it in conjunction with another bet. If you look solely at the math for each bet you miss the bigger picture where these bets are in this case working together. Basic 777 explained it as well as anybody can
     
    #144
  5. Harley, Apr 18, 2015

    Harley

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    #145
  6. Harley, Apr 18, 2015

    Harley

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    aww - now I understand - TDVegas tried to hijack another thread with this goofy post
     
    #146
  7. Onautopilot, Apr 18, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    I didn't say not to play it, I just said it wasn't the smartest way to give the casino your money. I only defend the math as a way to describe the game, and it does an excellent job of that. I often play higher HA bets, hard ways, etc., but I don't try and defend them as "good" bets. Actually the doey / don't bet is not really a hedge, it's a null bet that carries an absolute negative expectation. But, it seems there are enough people on here that do not care if they are guaranteed a loser on it or not, so I will cease from trying to explain the "idiocy" of the bet.
     
    #147
  8. basicstrategy777, Apr 18, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    TD.....the better bet is the one that pays closest to true odds.

    If I wanted to expand on that and be a wise guy....I would say the best bet is the one that wins.

    The Don't player gives the house the least HA....if a player wants to play strictly by that criterion he would be strictly a Don't player that doesn't hedge.

    I understand this but I am primarily a Right player that makes all kinds of bets including prop bets. What does that say about me and the human race ( the ones that shoot dice).......it's crazy out there. Live and let live.

    777
     
    #148
  9. Onautopilot, Apr 18, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    I don't think anyone is criticizing the way you play, or anyone else plays, that is an individual choice, and should not be judged good, or bad. But when one offers advice, or recommends a way of playing that is counter to all good sense, then they open themselves up for rebuttal. If Dave just said that is how he likes to play, even if the HA is a bit more, I would have absolutely no problem with that. It is when he says it is the "smart" way to play, that opens the door for debate!
     
    #149
  10. Dave G Ct, Apr 18, 2015

    Dave G Ct

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    I stand what I said. It is the smart way to play the dont because my DC gets out and I am not fighting the 7 on the CO. You think that is insignificant? Why are you not commenting on that?
     
    #150
  11. basicstrategy777, Apr 18, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    I wasn't recommending anything.

    I was just statating some facts.....primarily, if you are a Don't player and want to hedge to protect against the comeout 7....what way can you do it that gives the house the lowest HA.

    I have a chapter dedictaed to hedging in my book. In that chapter and in other chapters I give the pro's and con's of the subject but I never recommend a way to play. That is strictly up to the player.

    777
     
    #151
  12. Dave G Ct, Apr 18, 2015

    Dave G Ct

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    On betting right - if betting the 6&8 or the inside do you favor a regression approach?
     
    #152
  13. Onautopilot, Apr 18, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    I have little or no hope of explaining this to you, since you have no clue as to the expectations of those bets, or how it is even calculated. I could care less if you play that way, but to recommend it as "smart" play to others, is plain stupid! Enjoy your skewed reality while your money lasts!
     
    #153
    TDVegas likes this.
  14. TDVegas, Apr 18, 2015

    TDVegas

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    I've given up. He has no hope, no logic, no sense. We could sit here with a hammer trying pound it into his head...I suspect the hammer would break first.
     
    #154
  15. basicstrategy777, Apr 18, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    I believe conservation of buy-in should be your very first priority......and any betting 'system' you use should have this in mind when starting out.

    Regression is an excellent way to do this, although, as many hands are very short you do have to lay out more money when using a regression. I normally don't use it but it is a very legitamite way to play.

    I mention betting even numbers and getting back the money on these 4 bets if only 2 bets hit........regress on the 6/8 and same bet on the 4/10....you are basically back to a no lose position and you can spread and go up from there. ( if everything goes according to plan)

    777
     
    #155
  16. TDVegas, Apr 18, 2015

    TDVegas

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    Then play a pass bet and you are no longer fighting that 7. In addition you get the 11. Wow!! How's that? You have no idea what you are doing, Dave...several here have pointed it out adnauseum and you still can't comprehend it. Play anyway you want...but to suggest your way is a better play opens it up to a determination why...that determination can only be the math. If it's not the math and the math isn't relevant---fine, great, then I say my boxcar prop bet is "better" than anything you have out there because it just is.
     
    #156
  17. petroglyph, Apr 18, 2015

    petroglyph

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    Dave, why do you continue to call a DP that has traveled a DC bet?
    The only thing that a doey-don't does [other than comps] is guarantee you will eventually lose.
    My op, is never play the pass or the don't pass unless you are forced to.

    Either passline is a sucker bet. But that is not to say that I don't play stupid bets, I just know they are when I am doing it.

    @ triple 7. If you are willing to give the house 3% of your money, that is a lot to overcome with clever betting or luck. We would all be better off to make the journey down to the SA Star and play the field with no HA.
     
    #157
  18. TDVegas, Apr 18, 2015

    TDVegas

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    Jeez, are you still trying to glue a dime to the dice?
     
    #158
  19. Dave G Ct, Apr 18, 2015

    Dave G Ct

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    The DP bet does not travel. You are laying against it to establish your DC.
    Basicstategy777
    Agree with your philosophy 100%. I know we have differing views on DI but other than that I like your opinions
     
    #159
  20. TDVegas, Apr 18, 2015

    TDVegas

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    My strategy is I wait for the point to be established. If it's a 9----I make an odds bet only (0% HA) and I'll throw out a bet on the 6 & 8. :)
     
    #160