Calling ALL "DON'T" Players!!

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by ChequeMate8, Feb 9, 2019.

  1. ChequeMate8, Feb 9, 2019

    ChequeMate8

    ChequeMate8 Member

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    Okay, Q&A time.
    1st, I have seldom been a Don't player, I believe in optimism over pessimism in general. However, I do understand the math, that determines how you are at an advantage to win your wager ONCE a point is established. So my question is why not bypass the volatility of 7/11 during come out rolls and simply wait for a Point to be estestablished and Lay wager that point? You also can choose what points you prefer to wager against. Seems to me that it's much more to Player advantage than the Don't Pass. Any feedback welcomed on this.
    Thanks!
     
    #1
  2. Dave G Ct, Feb 9, 2019

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    Yes lay against the point-blank add a DC and drop your lay if you wish.Oe on the CO lay against 4 or 10 and protect your DP then drop the lay
     
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  3. The Midnight Skulker, Feb 9, 2019

    The Midnight Skulker

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    Once a Don't Bet gets a point it is the favorite to win even money; a Lay Bet on that point is also the favorite, but to win less than even money. There is also that little matter of the vigorish which is always charged on Lay Bets, but charged only indirectly on Don't Bets via putting them at an 8:3 disadvantage on the comeout roll.
     
    #3
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  4. ChequeMate8, Feb 9, 2019

    ChequeMate8

    ChequeMate8 Member

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    DGCt,
    Yes, I see that would work more often than not. Similarly, I tend to load up 2 or 3 DC's after 3 board numbers, and or 5 rolls from setting point. Normally works like a charm, only cost me money a couple of times when a monster streak actually shows up at the table!
     
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  5. ChequeMate8, Feb 9, 2019

    ChequeMate8

    ChequeMate8 Member

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    TMS,
    Well, I can see the house is always at an advantage, except the come out roll on the PL wager, then it flips. I really don't mind paying the Vig to be on a solid bet that is relatively easy to martingale into a steady winner 95% of the time, especially if only planning on table time of an hour or less.
    Thanks.
     
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  6. Dave G Ct, Feb 9, 2019

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    Hey never chase a hot shooter.I donot replace my no bets!
     
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  7. twodicebilly, Feb 9, 2019

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    "ChequeMate8,


    There is a whole number of things that dont make sense about the game. First
    when players have a 8/4 advantage on the come out they bet $10, then with they
    have less than 50% chance to win they add $50 in odds.

    They place bets all over the table and press with each win, keeping nothing in
    the rack and then when the 7 hits they have none of what they won, and piss and
    moan because they cant find a "hot" shooter.

    The average hand is about 6 shots, so the average player has more on the table after the
    hand gets to 6 than they did before.

    People go to the table and see the 5 & 9 hitting like crazy and they bet the 6 & 8.

    People step up to a table they have not watched at all and lay the 4 & 10 for $50
    each and if the win they get $25.

    I better stop this, I am about to sound like my wife.

    TDB
     
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  8. von duck, Feb 9, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    Yeah, TD, laying the bet, and having it as a don't wager, are the same thing, NOT! :confused: What does the don't wager pay? Even money. You will win about 59% of them, lose about 41% of them. Average net, +.18 units per point. 24 points per normalized round, X .18 units = 4.32 units, to recover 5 lost come out units, -.68 units.
    If you lay the same 24 points, you will win the same number of bets, but the 24 bets will cost you MORE than .68 units.
    Do the math yourself, for the "normalized" points, (10) 6/8s, (8) 5/9s, (6) 10/4s. Using $30 as your unit, makes everything pretty easy to figure, and reduces the vig a little.
    A better way to play the same bet, would be a Dewy/don't, for the smallest amount which would let you cover the $30 odds bets, on the don't. If you can find 10X odds, you can lay the 24 points vig free, and on average it would only cost you only $5 total, for all 24 lays, if you can also find a $5 table. Try IP in Biloxi. Tell them you know Von duck, and you will be treated like Royalty. :cool: A Dewy/don't, used to its max advantage, is the lowest-vig way to attain lay bets, while avoiding the volatile come-out bet. The house, and the dealers, absolutely hate this bet, which is a good enough reason in itself, to play it.
     
    #8
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2019
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  9. ChequeMate8, Feb 9, 2019

    ChequeMate8

    ChequeMate8 Member

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    DGCt,
    Don't worry about me on that. I've steered clear of the Shooters that I have assessed as being a competent shooter. As a rule, I don't wager on anyone until after I see them shoot the dice a hand.
     
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  10. ChequeMate8, Feb 9, 2019

    ChequeMate8

    ChequeMate8 Member

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    TDB,
    It wouldn't be a bad thing, as long as she is smart. Lol.
     
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  11. Dave G Ct, Feb 9, 2019

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    First chart the table.If rolls going 8-10 rolls and points made find another table
     
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  12. ChequeMate8, Feb 9, 2019

    ChequeMate8

    ChequeMate8 Member

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    VonDuck,
    Okay, bear with me a minute on this, as I've only recently put any real thought into a don't strategy... So you're saying equal wagers on the doey/don't ... Just to cancel out the come out volatility (-12's) then Lay wager the point? I don't think I'm 100% on this yet.
    Thanks.
     
    #12
  13. ChequeMate8, Feb 9, 2019

    ChequeMate8

    ChequeMate8 Member

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    DGCt,
    8-10 roll table is IDEAL for my 3 board numbers, or 5 rolls, pull down board bets, jump on DC for 3 landings. Collect cash.
     
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  14. Dave G Ct, Feb 9, 2019

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    Just as long they are bot hit.Doey - don't only the 12 loses the PL then lay against point.Need less B.R. for this method
     
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  15. ChequeMate8, Feb 9, 2019

    ChequeMate8

    ChequeMate8 Member

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    OK VonDuck,
    I had to re-read your response for my light bulb to go "ON"
    Yes, that makes perfect sense to me now, 100% just adding on the Lay odds for the don't (edit) (D/P) side to circumvent the Lay wager Vig on the board! Perfect Sense!
    Just hope for no monster rolls!
     
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    Last edited: Feb 9, 2019
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  16. ChequeMate8, Feb 9, 2019

    ChequeMate8

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    DGCt,
    I'm wondering what is the longest streak of either Pass/Dont that you have personally seen at a Live Craps table?
     
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  17. von duck, Feb 9, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    For me seventeen pass line winners. Don't know about the don't, probably less, because who's going to hang around a table that cold? :cool:
     
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  18. ChequeMate8, Feb 9, 2019

    ChequeMate8

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    VonDuck,
    Was that at IP Biloxi? I'm assuming that's your closest favorite??
    Thanks.
     
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  19. von duck, Feb 9, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    No. I've seen it twice, both times in Nevada. Saw one at the old Hacianda casino once, that I'm pretty sure was in the twenties, but did not take a count, so I can't be sure. :cool:
     
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  20. von duck, Feb 9, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    If they lay the 4 and the 10 for $50, and they win, they make $50 minus vig on one bet. If you win a lay 4, you would also win the lay 10. :cool:
     
    #20