Cold/Choppy Table

Discussion in 'Bankroll Management' started by Addicted3V, Aug 17, 2011.

  1. Addicted3V, Aug 17, 2011

    Addicted3V

    Addicted3V Member

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    I used to love betting the donts and it was easy for me to change from the right side to the wrong side when I thought a table turned cold (I typically judge this by 3-4 shooters crapping out in a row). I have recently been playing only the right side and have become a bit fearful of the dont side (no idea why). Anyway, the point of my question is this:

    Do you think it is better (more effective), for purposes of protecting your bankroll when a table goes cold for a while to
    A. Switch to the dont's with a bet size that is similar to your right side bets or
    B. Switch from playing the pass line and some numbers to a small come bet followed by maybe 1 more come bet.

    I have been using B and it luckilly has been working but I am not sure if it is just dumb luck or if there is any logic to back it up.

    Thanks
     
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  2. basicstrategy777, Aug 17, 2011

    basicstrategy777

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    It's 7 out..not crap out.

    It's dumb luck.

    Who knows what is going to happen. My general feeling is .....if what you are doing is not working, you should change what you are doing.

    In your example i.e. the table is cold.. I would play the Don'ts. There is no mathematical justification for this. It is a random game but you have to have a plan, and you have to hang your hat on something.

    What seems to make the most sense to you ?

    777
     
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  3. Addicted3V, Aug 17, 2011

    Addicted3V

    Addicted3V Member

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    Thanks basic. Both terms actually refer to the same thing. 7-out is simply more accurate and pc. But enough about semantic bs.

    My current feeling, only because it has been working recently, is that I like the small come bet option.

    1. I do not like flip-flopping at a table as whenever I have done that in the past I flip when I should have flopped and flop when I should have flipped.
    2. I like the idea of a smaller bet for a period of time when the direction of the table appears to be less certain. (I know that is a dumb statement as you never really know where the table is going next, but sometimes you feel, correctly or not, like you know that the table is hot or cold)

    To be totally forthcoming, I think the best option would be to leave the table entirely and find another table or another game. But I find I do not do that very well unless I am winning (I know dont get me started in the backwardsness of this logic). Still trying to get myself into the habit of riding my wins and cutting my losses but it is very difficult to do when at the table.

    So all that said, does anyone know based on statistics, which method is the better method?

    Thanks.
     
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  4. $nakeEye$, Aug 17, 2011

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    If you don't object - I will add my 2 cents worth to this worthy question -

    First and foremost - throw " statistics " to the wind -

    Secondly - and probably most importantly - go with the table is giving you -

    If shooters are PSO - bet the DP -

    Watch each and every individual shooter -

    Did I say " Watch each and every individual shooter " -

    Let me re-iterate - Watch each and every individual shooter -

    Because a table is " cold " or " hot " or " dicey " at the moment -

    It does not mean that it will continue that way for any length of time -

    It is all dependendant on the particular shooter who has the dice at that moment -

    Because 10 people at your table 7'd out within 3 or 4 throws -

    That does not mean that the next shooter will not throw a hand of 20, 30, 40 numbers -

    Nor does it mean that he will PSO as the rest of the table !

    Like the sign at the RailRoad Crossing says - STOP, LOOK and LISTEN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
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  5. The Midnight Skulker, Aug 18, 2011

    The Midnight Skulker

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    I agree completely. The math says that in a series of random and independent trials -- that's number-speak for craps bet resolutions -- the past in no way influences the future. You are expected to lose 1.41% of the total amount of your flat Pass Line bets regardless of when you make them. (OK, providing you make them before a point is established.) Trends have no predictive value.

    But what if they have indicative value? Trends can occur as a normal consequence of random trials, but what if, at a particular table and at a particular time, the trials are not random? In that case a trend just might be an indicator that a distribution other than the Perfect 36 is in effect.
    Statistics will show you only that you are expected to lose 1.40% of you flat DP bets and 1.41% of your flat Come bets. Since both of these alternatives provide basically the same expectation as your original strategy you are mathematically indifferent as to which method to employ.

    Without knowing your goals I cannot recommend a course of action to you when the dice are hostile. I personally become more conservative when my bankroll is shrinking as I place some value on playing time. I also bring a bag of tricks to the table, and if the first betting strategy I try doesn't work I will pull out another one. Of course sometimes I'm just cursed.

    Permit me an anecdote in that regard. Circus Circus, Reno, NV, 30 years or so ago. The dice had been taking no prisoners, and I, the last player remaining at the table, noted that fact as I was about to leave. The stickman said, "You could always try the Don'ts." "OK," I replied after a few seconds of thought, "but this had better not be an 11." I threw a 7, which drew some giggles from the base dealers. I was one left and turned to the stickman. Acting as though I were going to tear him limb from limb I growled, "Argh!". The stickman cowered and hastily said, "It wasn't 11. It wasn't 11." I considered this for a moment, then scowled and said, "A technicality. Argh!" After some posturing we had a chuckle, and I colored out and left.
     
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  6. $nakeEye$, Oct 8, 2011

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    Good luck with your bingo -

    Oh and by the way -

    Do not forget to ring your little bell -

    When the caller says " O- 69 " !
     
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  7. Greatest 7 Shooter in the World, Oct 26, 2011

    Greatest 7 Shooter in the World

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    I use a rule of thumb that has made me a ton of money over the few years I have been a advantage player. I lay the 4 against (chicken feeders) and guys wives and girlfriends they bring to the table at 10-11pm so they can have fun a roll the dice.

    I stay clear of laying against a dice settor who appears he has the knowledge of how to shoot the dice. I.E. dice set, good form, soft toss and back spin just before the backwall. Not to say this means this guy is a good person to bet in front of I am just saying from my exp dice settors roll more inside numbers over the course of the night than random no exp chicken feeders who are there to throw the dice because its fun.


    But other than a few lay bets on "the sucker" at the table I really dont bet on other people anymore like I used to. I have found the best way to win at craps is bet on yourself because you are in control of the outcome so you have no one to be mad at if the outcome is not good. I had to many night of getting beat around the table and having a great roll when I shoot and then ending up even for the table rotation and thinking to myself why and I lossing money on these idiots and having to have a great roll just to break even. that is not a good odds advantage and since I have scaled it back I have had good results. Hrs of practice with 6 8 grip and have not looked back.
     
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  8. arrgy

    arrgy Member

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    I would agree and take it a step further. I grew up near AC and played at the Taj a few times. I noticed that the stick always gave the shooter dice with the 7 showing on the cubes facing the dealer, never on the top. Didn't matter the time day, the table, etc. almost always the dealers set the 7 on the cubes facing them and the box. 95% of the time the shooter just picked up the dice without ever knowing it and threw it. Now, why in the world would a house do that, if everything was random?" I thought.

    That was 20 years ago when I played don't. I never learned any dice setting combos or strategy but when I shot I always looked at the cubes saw the 7 and set the dice accordingly. I never had a rotation throw more of a non-spin throw, hit the bumper and backslide as it landed, and almost never a 7 out, unless it bounced off chips. I still do it today, I read the dice setting books, etc. and they are well and good but its the same stuff my dad taught me years and years ago.

    I never bet with a stranger, only myself. My 7s ratio is somewhere around 8.5 to 9:1. On one trip to Vegas my ratio for a 30 hour split session was 15:1, and I shot at least 2-3 times an hour.

    You don't really need to practice, just some common sense.
     
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  9. kaysirtap, Dec 12, 2011

    kaysirtap

    kaysirtap Member

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    If it were up to the casinos, they'd send you the dice with any number on top. The reason you never see a 7 on top (among other numbers) is because the casino is trying to make the superstitious players happy. Your comment about 7's on the side made me think...

    If you were standing relatively close to the stickman (probably 1-2 spots away), and there weren't that many bets on the table, it is possible that when a 7 showed, the stickman turned both dice once, leaving a 7 on the sides of the dice.... which remained there when the dice were delivered to you.

    According to my calculations, there is only a 14.6% chance of a seven being on the sides of the dice when they are delivered to you. There are 576 total ways the dice can be delivered, 384 ways they should be delivered to you, and 56 of those 384 ways have a seven on the side. This is less than the 16.7% chance of a 7 being thrown randomly (although at 14.6%, it is still the most common number found on the sides). So I have to assume that you only remembered about the 7's being on the sides, but forgot when the 7's weren't there.
     
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  10. arrgy

    arrgy Member

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    At the Taj the 7s were ALWAYS on the cubes facing the dealer. I noticed that after a roll if a normal point number was showing up top that while the bets were being paid off the dealers would start randomly moving only one cube up or to the side, it looked like the stick was bored and was just playing with the die until all the bets were paid. However, I noticed that every single time the dealer gave that 7 to the shooter.
     
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  11. cardshark, May 23, 2012

    cardshark

    cardshark Member

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    most dealers wont send the dice on 2,3,11,12 or seven. that only leaves 6 numbers. what would you rather have.. a dealer messing with the dice for a minute to get all the ju ju off the dice or the dice in the air. the house knows it has the edge. they could care less what number the dice go out on. the only thing that matters to the house is the ammount of rolls per hour. thats why if you are slow with setting them up they tell you to pick up the tempo.
     
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  12. cardshark, May 23, 2012

    cardshark

    cardshark Member

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    aslo a choppy table beats both sides. if you ask the dealer who you trust how its going and they say choppy. be cautious. if they like you they are being honest and dont want to see you get your balls kicked in.
     
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  13. $nakeEye$, May 23, 2012

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    DUH !!!!!!!!!!!!

    If anyone has yet to notice -

    ALL OPPOSITE FACES OF THE DICE ADD UP TO 7 -

    The 4 is directly opposite the 3 - 4+3 = 7

    The 5 is directly opposite the 2 - 5 + 2 = 7

    The 6 is directly opposite the 1 - 6 + 1 = 7 -

    If the 7's were facing the dealer - would they not also be facing away from the dealer ?

    It never ceases to amaze me to watch idiots at the table set the dice to a certain orientation -

    Then pick up the dice and check the bottom numbers -

    These rocket sciencetists never think to look at the sides of the dice -

    A$$hole$ -
     
    #13
  14. SevenOut, Nov 12, 2012

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    Cardshark... we both are dug into the trenches together. Choppy tables are House games and they restock the table's bankroll with fresh chips from Right and Wrong bettors.

    It is like flipping a coin. Over the long run it will work out to about 50% for either side. You start changing your calls from one side to another and then you could be hitting a few or losing a few by doing so or guessing wrong on all tosses. When you get down to the play: Choppy games are bad for everyone but the House, as they win no matter what. The Casino counts on those choppy tables for income. A constant losing table brings in the Don't bettors who play less and wait for the outcomes. The Right side bettors pull back on their bets until a few good numbers roll to bring out some optimism.

    Dealers do not like choppy tables. You spend your time talking to the other table dealers and time goes by very, very... slow. Fill a table up and the next thing you know you are out of the rotation on the table positions and on break. Hot and Cold tables are preferred by everyone, dealers and players. When a table goes choppy... I drop my bets down... dig in and maybe sit out a Pass or Seven Out for several games before getting back into the action. Those short rolls are bad for making any money as a player. The Pit Boss wanders off, the Boxman is looking around to see what is happening on the other tables and the dealer's eyes gloss over from boredom.

    I play Craps to WIN. And over a lifetime, Winning on a Craps Table means breaking EVEN. Oh sure, you will have those days that you could toss out a bet and win the long shots and then come the dry spells, getting your "Free Drinks", expensive. And, if I have time to be sucking on a 7 and 7 while playing Craps, I must not be watching my chips or the dice coming down the cloth!
     
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  15. calhounite, Nov 15, 2012

    calhounite

    calhounite Member

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    Here's an idea I've found useful at hard to define hot or cold tables. The idea is to bet with the shooter under the following conditions. The idea is based on the hypothesis that there's something to dice influencing, and, even if there isn't, no worse off anyway.

    Bet the Don't Come (with as big a bet you would be willing to make with odds) the Pass Line Betting shooter. Don't take odds. You want all the money you're willing to risk paying 1 to 1. Laying odds is not what you want.

    The shooter has already established his point. It's his first roll after the point. He's going to able to apply his maximum skill now to not roll a seven, which may not be the case after several rolls as the tension builds and as the shooter may be getting tired and/or sloppy. It's your best chance to avoid the seven.

    Avoiding the seven on the first roll is the whole point behind the Don't bet. Yea, the 11 beats you, but that is more than counterbalanced by the craps numbers. Now you're the frickin casino owning the slots with odds in your favor ranging from 55 to 66%. Those are pretty nice slot machines to own. More than makes up for the fact that now your interests and the DI shooter's interests diverge. You want the seven and he wants a number. But, even so, he doesn't necessarily care about YOUR number. He won't be setting for it, but for his number, if he's specifically setting for any number.

    Say he hits his number. Now your interests are back in line with the skilled shooter's. A seven wins for him AND you. He will be setting for your winner. So even if the shooter turns hot, may still survive if not making a profit, because you aren't losing on his made points, and even benefiting from them. And can make pass line bets independently if have confidence in the shooter. Money behind the line is always good and can serve as a hedge.

    This is far superior to betting the Don't Pass line where you're setting yourself up to getting killed by a suddenly hot shooter rolling several 7's and 11s on come outs, making points right and left, and so on.

    Try losing several bets in succession on succesive 7's and 11's with this method.

    You can't.
     
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  16. The Midnight Skulker, Nov 15, 2012

    The Midnight Skulker

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    Not bad reasoning IMHO. I too eschew the Don't Pass, but because some shooters take it personally, as a bet against them.
     
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  17. Grizzoola, Feb 25, 2014

    Grizzoola

    Grizzoola Member

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    As to hot, choppy, cold tables, I was wondering the percentages of these kinds of tables. For example, my brief experience, so far is 10% hot, 80% choppy, & 10% cold. Maybe some of you have a different take on this & maybe it's a useless exercise. I'm beginning to think that most of the time a table will be choppy & I bet accordingly. Of course, condition of the bankroll figures in there, too.
     
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