Conservative bets help please.

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by Dirtbag, Jul 15, 2016.

  1. James Hall, Jul 16, 2016

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    Koko
    actually it is not a pipe dream practicing at home allows us to make the same delivery over and over
    we will get different results on different tables we simply adjust to what numbers we bet
    both the tables at my house came from casinos in Vegas ,so to a great degree I get pretty close to the same outcomes

    the dice as a random event can change
    we do that on a somewhat consistent basis You get a random outcome when you throw in a random manner
    if you cast the dice in the same manner each time you effect the random nature of the outcome
     
    #81
  2. James Hall, Jul 16, 2016

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    Tabletop
    Years ago I had a friend who was a professional pool player he played some kind of tournaments then he traveled doing trick shot shows
    now that is one game where practice and knowing how to make shots doesn't change a thing
    Willie Elder was this guys name and he told me once
    "JIMMY YOU WILL NEVER MAKE IT AS A POOL PLAYER YOU EITHER HAVE IT OR YOU DON'T
    YOU ARE BORN WITH IT OR YOU NEVER HAVE IT AND ALL THE PRACTICE IN THE WORLD WILL NEVER CHANGE A THING

    he went on to say learning all these angles all this english and all that crap is BS it's all random once that que ball hits that object ball whatever
    is going to happen is going to happen get that freaking pool table out of your game room the only thing that matters is what happens down at the bar

    well I got rid of the pool table I THOUGHT I COULD PROBABLY DO SOME GOOD BUT WILLIE TOLD ME
     
    #82
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  3. James Hall, Jul 16, 2016

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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  4. Onautopilot, Jul 16, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    Can't wait for TT's reply to this.....and the part where it's all random after the cue ball hits the object ball! Me and ole TT have a few things in common...one of them is pool!
     
    #84
  5. James Hall, Jul 16, 2016

    James Hall

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    OAP
    my friend Willie did play as a pool professional but he never said those things I was just making a point about practice
    In my life I have known some really , really good pool players and everyone of them thought they were the best in the world
    pool players / sharks like poker players
    die broke if the play often enough and long enough
    and of course they get beat up and shot a lot
     
    #85
  6. tabletop123, Jul 16, 2016

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Yeah, They used to call him Fast Eddie! Willie knew all of the Top players, such as Earl Strickland, Buddy Hall, Lassister (Wimpy), Mike Sigel, etc. Willie was a "Old School" Player that grew up in the Mosconi, Irving Crane, Boston Shorty, & Squirrel Era! I also believe that skilled Tossers will have varying degrees of success, no matter HOW HARD they practice! Some people NATURALLY toss better than others, & it is what it is! Takes a TREMENDOUS amount of talent to overcome that 1 41 house edge, 1,41 & 1.52 doesnt sound like much to overcome but try to overcome it DAY IN & DAY OUT!
     
    #86
  7. KokomoJoe4, Jul 17, 2016

    KokomoJoe4

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    I would like a free copy :oops:, signed please.
     
    #87
  8. James Hall, Jul 17, 2016

    James Hall

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    TT
    if they take 1.52 how much is left//
     
    #88
  9. Settingcanthurt, Jul 17, 2016

    Settingcanthurt

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    Ha
    Haa
    Haaaaa
    Haaaaaaaaaaaaahaaaaaaaaa haaaahaaahahaaahaaaahaaaahaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

    thats funny!!!!
     
    #89
  10. wonko33, Jul 20, 2016

    wonko33

    wonko33 Member

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    I disagree with some of you about the usefulness of testing on tables at home.

    I think there is a great value to it. If you can throw a relevant amount of times and show with decent confidence (the math term) that there is influence, it at least proves that it is possible. It doesn't prove that it can be done in a casino but it proves the possibility.

    If you can't show influence with a degree of certainty in controlled situation then it is pointless. I find that there is value to that. I am not talking about throwing on your bed either but on a table with similar traits as the casino ones.

    If that could be proven to me I would think that there are some SILENT APs doing just that. Problem is all we have are futile attempts made by people who have no clue how to prove things.
     
    #90
  11. KokomoJoe4, Jul 20, 2016

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    I would suggest that there is zero mathematical confidence in a limited amount of data, and that nothing is proven. You need to approach an infinite number of results before any conclusions can be drawn. Remember the definitions of variability, randomness and chance?

    Of course a shooter who in general does pretty well, whatever that means, will feel that he is better than random. No one likes to be average.

    Math can be used to show that expectation at the craps table can be positive :eek:. I have shown how this is done several times. However, does anyone really think that this is happening? Just because it can be shown on paper does NOT mean it is true or that it is actually happening.

    Think about it this way. Players J and D both have thousands of rolls documented which show that they are rolling way better than predicted by math.

    J has actually rolled more sixes than sevens!, and his eights are also better than the expected 5:6 ratio vs. the seven. He calculates to be an advantage player.

    D shoots from the 2V and pounds the fours and tens, apparently all primary face hits. His ratio of 4's to 7's and 10 to 7's is way better than the expected 1:2. Math also shows him to be an advantage player.

    Incidentally math shows that a third player, KJ is a disadvantaged player and therefore a so-called random roller.

    What happens to the calculation of expectation when KJ goes on a Captain-like 100 roll hand? What happens to the numbers for J or D when they throw a bunch of two and three roll hands?

    I'll tell you what happens. The math changes. This is expected. It always happens. No one is always good. Thankfully, no one is always bad.
     
    #91
  12. James Hall, Jul 20, 2016

    James Hall

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    KoKo
    all of this sounds great think about this
    you have a table at home , you find out what kind of underlayment and layout a table in a casino has on just one of their tables
    you change your table to match that and practice as often as you can
    then go to the casino and take the spot you like to throw from
    I have two tables each end of both tables is set up like 4 different tables in Vegas
    I practice on each of the 4 ends
    over time with logging numbers on charts we made up I have found that I do better with certain sets on different bounce characteristic
    so whe I go to Vegas or elsewhere I go in , listen to the sound the dice make , I watch how the dice bounce then I choose which table to play
    works great for me
     
    #92
  13. Edward-ky, Jul 20, 2016

    Edward-ky

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    So u have tables set up to be like Vegas and yet you skip Vegas and travel further away to a casino. Makes perfect sense to me.
     
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  14. wonko33, Jul 20, 2016

    wonko33

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    An infinity? No you don't, the amount of rolls needed , let's say 95% certain, would be based on the size of the influence but not infinity. How do you think scientists prove anything? They certainly don't redo the experiment and infinity of time.
     
    #94
  15. KokomoJoe4, Jul 21, 2016

    KokomoJoe4

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    Practicing a random event does not make it a controllable event. So you spend the time and money to match the underlay at your favorite casino How about the grain of wood in the tables. How do they compare? How do you know the underlay on that particular table? Who told you? What about the pyramids. The felt? How do you "learn" to throw each toss with the same force, height, spin, coefficient of friction, moisture on your fingertips?

    Shall I go on?

    The concept of ramdomness is taught in the sixth grade, using the flip of a coin and the toss of the dice. WHY do think this is?

    Have the revelations of Dom, Frank and the Sharpshooter blown this concept out of the water? If so, why is Dom now showing people how to win sports bets rather than chucking dice for a living? Why does Frank write books and teach paying customers how to influence dice rather than make a living chucking the bones?
     
    #95
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  16. KokomoJoe4, Jul 21, 2016

    KokomoJoe4

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    The more the merrier. Results obtained by random chance will show a lot of variability. The expert shooter who just threw 72 rolls throws 2 the next time, turning his average into 37. Still a bit better than 6, eh?

    In the end, what do YOU think his average number of rolls will be? Do you think the answer to this question will depend on whether he is a DI, so-called DI, random roller or so-called random roller?

    This might come as a surprise, but I do. No not because I expect someone to be better at this tricky craft than the next guy, but rather because that is what variability requires.
     
    #96
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  17. James Hall, Jul 21, 2016

    James Hall

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    koko
    you posed a lot of questions / doubt ,,,the grain of the wood is spot on , I purchased both of my tables from casinos I buy layouts the same way pyramids are available
    the force of the throw is actually velocity some 15.5 to 16.feet per second , arc consistent , my dice rotate twice moisture on finger tips I keep chalk in my pocket
    Frank writes books because he always has , gives him a much bigger market / base of customers
    Why in the hell do you play you raised a lot of doubt thru your questions
    I doubt very seriously you will ever amount to a thing on a craps table , YOU REALLY NEED TO QUIT PLAYING
    you are exactly the people the casinos cater too
    the 6th grade flip of the coin ?? you high school drop outs on this forum have beat that old horse to death
    versions of this thing you call DI has been around long before Frank and Dom and all of them came up with their version of it
    I was introduced to it in the 1960s I was a little disapointed when I saw people trying to copy what they saw Leon , Gene and several other praticianers using
    in the not too distant future this thing is going to really take hold and you will kick yourself you didn't take it seriously
    but you keep going in laying your little $100 buy ins , you keep on with your little $50 ,,,$100 per session win , loss , limits
    you keep on pretending grownup gambler the casinos love you guys they laugh their asses off when they see you come in
     
    #97
  18. Onautopilot, Jul 21, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    A mathematical confidence level that a bias exists in some supposedly random event is not that difficult to arrive at, given the adequate data. (but doing that in a casino setting might be quite a chore)

    That confidence level is expressed as a percentage.

    The amount of bias is the key in how many trials might be needed. Heavily biased, less trials needed, a miniscule bias....might never reach any meaningful confidence level given the time frame allowed.

    If a DI has reached a high percentage of a "mathematical confidence" that they are introducing a specific bias with their skill, in a casino setting, they are not participating in these discussion.....they are out plying their trade!

    I have no problem with anyone that "suspects" that they are introducing a bias in the dice, and plays that way. I might have a problem with their extraordinary claims of success though! My first problem with it would be.....why are they advertising it!
     
    #98
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  19. Onautopilot, Jul 21, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    It's actually been around almost since the inception of the game. That is why the casinos take great precautions to thwart any attempt at it!

    Once in a blue moon, someone actually gets away with it....sliding, and short rolls, but not for long!
     
    #99
  20. The Midnight Skulker, Jul 21, 2016

    The Midnight Skulker

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    "That ain't my style," said Casey.
    "Strike one!" the umpire said.

    "No, seriously, that weren't my style. When the pitching machine in batting practice doesn't throw the pitch I asked for it doesn't count. That was a no-pitch!"
     
    #100