Craps Strategy: Al Kaufman's 444

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by Craps Poopshoot, Dec 13, 2016.

  1. Craps Poopshoot, Dec 13, 2016

    Craps Poopshoot

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    Here it is


    Now, Al says you only are going to play the table till you make $100 then move to another table or casino.


    Some details on the system

    The original video by Al
     
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    Last edited: Dec 13, 2016
  2. random_roller, Dec 13, 2016

    random_roller

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    I've seen plenty of players start out with $32 across (or $64 at a $10 table) without regressing and most of them weren't happy when they left the table. That's 4 or 5 hits needed to be net positive on Level 1 (without pressing or going to Level 2) or at least 1 hit at a higher level before a 7 out or running into bankroll / table limits. If that higher level hit doesn't happen before a 7 out or running into bankroll / table limits, the result is a pretty good-sized loss.

    I don't recall the specifics of the system, but it was something like $32 across (Level 1), increased to $192 across on a 7 out (Level 2), then $954 across after 2 straight PSOs (Level 3) and finally $5,xxx across after 3 straight PSOs (Level 4). 3 straight PSOs (or with non-paying numbers mixed in before 7 out) isn't that unusual and to be out almost $1,200 if that happened seems crazy.
     
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  3. Edward-ky, Dec 13, 2016

    Edward-ky

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    Yeah that seems like solid strategy to go with.
     
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  4. Twelve4s, Dec 13, 2016

    Twelve4s

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    I like this 442 strategy,

    IMG_5209.JPG
     
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  5. HornHiYo, Dec 13, 2016

    HornHiYo

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    I love the line " You're looking for a hot table where guys are throwing numbers"
    No shit? How many other right side bet strategies would succeed at a hot table where guys are throwing numbers?
    Would someone be dumb enough to bet dark side at a hot table where guys are throwing numbers!
     
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  6. Craps Poopshoot, Dec 13, 2016

    Craps Poopshoot

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    It is very rare these days that I see a roll in to the 20's. Players cheer for anything that is over 8 rolls, and anything in the low teens is a considered great.

    Players who hunt for long rolls tend to be go home empty handed. I tend to profit from Scalping the short rolls. The way I play is designed go use the bouncy tables and very bouncy backwall to produce a 'RANDOM ROLL' where the seven is likely to show its face in in every six rolls.

    So, today I am over at Palace Station. I played some Baccarat then when I was finished with the shoe, I headed over to the Craps tables.

    The typical 'insides' and 'across' players where there. A few 6 and 8 hunters among the bunch as well. The dice where simply not giving them anything though. I watched for a few shooters and then decided to jump in.

    I bet 5 on the Don't Pass.
    Shooter rolls a 8. Ok, not bad but not good either.
    I make a $5 Don't Come bet.
    Shooter rolls a 3.
    I parlay the Don't Come Bet, so now I have $10 on the DC.
    Shooter rolls another 3.
    Nice. I parlay that to to $20
    Shooter rolls a 5
    Good, a 5 is a good number for me.
    I make another $5 DC bet
    Shooter rolls a 4
    Sweet!
    I make my last $5 DC bet
    Shooter rolls a 6

    So, I got 4 behind bets up: 4,5,6,8 with bet on the 5 parlayed for a total working of $35

    Shooter then rolls a 9, 11,9 then the Seven-out.

    So, the shooter had 9 rolls before the seven. Those playing the insides or across either came out to a wash or slight losses. Those who press, press, press on wins tend to suffer badly at the tables. I am sure that method works well in the books and internet chat rooms, but in reality it is a very bad method to use.

    The average roll, mathematically speaking, is 8.3 rolls long. The seven appears 3.2 rolls after the point is set, again mathematically speaking.

    Use to be something called 'easy money' in Vegas. Long time ago I came here in the 80's. There where 4 mountains of bets on the table:

    The lay the 4 and 10 and the Place 6 and 8.

    A good roll was one where the 6 or 8 was rolled, then of course those bets are taken down on a win, then sit back and wait for the seven before a 4 or 10. Good times!

    Of course rolling a 4 or 10 would bring the ire of the players down on you, as now they have to work a bit harder to get that 'easy money'.

    You don't see this sort of bet anymore. Anyone care to guess why?

    These days when I get a DP or DC on the 4 or 10, I am in utter terror of that bet. I sweat that bet more than a DP/DC on the 6 or 8. I DARE not lay odds on the 4 or 10 bet, but I will on the 6 or 8.

    Funny how things have changed.
     
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  7. Craps Poopshoot, Dec 13, 2016

    Craps Poopshoot

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    If a shooter is hitting repeat insides, I don't bet on that shooter. If the table is showing me a lot of repeat insides, then I find another table!

    I have won with the don't on hot tables, mostly because I bet a few behind bets up during the roll, then the come-out seven pays them! That is a real work of art to do something like that, and timing is everything for that sort of betting maneuver.

    Today a hot roll, or hot shooter, does not mean a big payday for the right side players - CAUSE THERE IS A LOT OF CRAPS IN THEIR ROLLS. This is one of those annoying little details I point out with the DICE TODAY, that there can be as many Craps rolls as there are 6 and 8 rolls. Given that Craps rolls are non-paying rolls the casino is getting a free roll out of the shooter and one roll closer to the seven-out. I also think that higher than mathematically predicted Craps rolls gives the casino one hell of a house edge!

    It does not matter if you believe in Bias Dice or not, the dice don't care and will still act accordingly to the biases the have.
     
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  8. random_roller, Dec 13, 2016

    random_roller

    random_roller Member

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    You mean you're not interested in risking $954 across to try and get 1 hit that will allow you to net $10 or $11 profit (with $32 at risk after regressing $954 across back to $32 across following the hit)?

    How can you pass up such a "sure" thing? :rolleyes:
     
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  9. KokomoJoe4, Dec 14, 2016

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Nice ride Four's, but you are not going to do the Subaru rally in your 442, are you?
     
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  10. KokomoJoe4, Dec 14, 2016

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    No surprise coming from me, but I wouldn't play across if I was using Dave's money to do so.

    RR has hit it succinctly on the head, too many hits required to recapture outlay, let alone win any money.
     
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    Last edited: Dec 14, 2016
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  11. Twelve4s, Dec 14, 2016

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

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    Negative. Just taking a break on the way home from the rally. Napping in back seat. Remember when cars had back seats?
     
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  12. James Hall, Dec 14, 2016

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    we were over at Parker's one day when a cute little blond knocked on the door
    and asked him if he had any jobs shE could do to earn a little money
    he said you could paint my porch and I will pay you $50

    He took her out back to the barn and showed her the paint , brushes and rollers
    an hour and a half later she knocked on the door asking for her $50

    he asked you painted the porch in less than two hours

    She said , "WELL YEAH BUT IT AIN'T A DAMNED PORCH IT'S A FERRARI "
     
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  13. Twelve4s, Dec 14, 2016

    Twelve4s

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    Mistakes can be made,

    IMG_5254.JPG

    IMG_5252.JPG
     
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  14. James Hall, Dec 14, 2016

    James Hall

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    #14
  15. Twelve4s, Dec 14, 2016

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

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    Send her over. She's worth more than $50!
     
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  16. KokomoJoe4, Dec 14, 2016

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Hold your horses. What's this $50 shit? Things only cost James $42. :)
     
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  17. Onautopilot, Dec 14, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    Saw a young kid playing the all across negative progression in the Horseshoe years ago. The dealers knew him and let him call the bets off after one hit, and leave them there for the next shooter. He just wanted one win per shooter.

    I saw him up to the 3rd. level a time or two, but lucked out and hit his one win. He had a nice large bankroll, I guess he was prepared to go to the next level if needed.

    I finally left the table before he did, so not sure how long he dodged the bullet.

    I like some negative progressions, but not that one, a bit too volatile for my blood. I have seen too many aggressive negative progressions hit the wall!
     
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  18. James Hall, Dec 14, 2016

    James Hall

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    don't let her paint your porch
     
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  19. James Hall, Dec 14, 2016

    James Hall

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    Kokomo
    The reason I set everything at $42 is because I have to steal the money
    out of my wife"s purse , to protect herself she never puts more than that in there
    and she hides all her credit cards
    Life just sucks sometimes , then ya die
     
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  20. Twelve4s, Dec 14, 2016

    Twelve4s

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    Ya gots to do, what ya gots to do,

    IMG_5255.JPG
     
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