Critique This: When Below Buy-In, Stay at Minimum

Discussion in 'Bankroll Management' started by Grizzoola, Dec 25, 2013.

  1. Grizzoola, Dec 25, 2013

    Grizzoola

    Grizzoola Member

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    So, can you tell me is if this is what you do? If not, why?
     
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  2. KokomoJoe4, May 28, 2014

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Not exactly the way I play. I always go back to minimum following a loss, and always increase my bet after a win. So even if still down quite a bit, after a winner, I will increase my bet. Usual progression is 10 to 15 to 25, normally with double odds.

    Why? Although I like to play and do play frequently, I'm not a grinder and not someone who wants to spend a lot of time at a session. My objective is to get ahead by at least $75, then play very aggressively until I see a loser. The only way I will not leave the place a winner with this strategy, when aahead by $75, is when I lose the first bigger bet. Admittedly, this happens more often than I would like, and it keeps me at the table longer, often with poor results.
     
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    Last edited: May 29, 2014

  3. idoc

    idoc Member

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    It depends... What is your buy-in and what is the table minimum?

    I like to bet at least 2 units on inside numbers. If I'm losing or if the table turns cold then I may just bet 6&8. So if I catch a 3 or 4 bad rolls, I may bet just 6&8 even if I am up over my buy-in. I don't really focus on the buy-in but I do have a predetermined stop loss.
     
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  4. SevenOut, Jun 8, 2014

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    Idoc makes an important point... your bankroll and table minimum.

    If I am losing or winning, I begin with the same wagering of the $200 Hit and Run System. The superstition of a losing table could be the beginning of the longest roll and Fire Bet payouts in your memory!

    My Craps "Theology" is Dice have no memory, regret nor reason to have feelings. You are playing Craps... not Blackjack or Poker where once the cards are out... the odds do change within the deck or decks.

    I have had shooters do the Point Seven Out, weaning my bankroll and the next shooter wins back those losses for me and I leave as a winner after the roll is completed. I have also left with just pocket lint in my pocket. To win aggressive... play aggressive.
    That is how you make those wins that cover previous losses.

    If you consistently are losing, examine your game and understand why. If there is no reason other than the dice outcomes while you are playing, a good game plan will pay off on a hot roll, which could be a series of bad dice outcomes for someone elses game!

    Stay the course and leave the thinking to your game plan, not to the feelings at the moment.
     
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    Last edited: Jun 9, 2014
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  5. rudeboy99, Jun 30, 2014

    rudeboy99

    rudeboy99 Member

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    I don't feel it's in your best interests to grind out at the minimum simply because you've lost some of your buy-in. Every new shooter and every new "hand" is a potentially a positive cash flow opportunity for the bettor willing to go for it by using sane pressing strategies. Granted, it's best to maintain less fiscal exposure if the dice are chopping by staying with your basic bet sizes and if you're slightly "stuck", but if repeating numbers begin to show, it's best to bet into it, even if you use more conservative tactics than normal.:)
     
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  6. Grizzoola, Jun 30, 2014

    Grizzoola

    Grizzoola Member

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    I agree w/ what you say, rudeboy. I have just recently realized that I have to pay more attention to how the table is going & adjust my betting, accordingly.
     
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  7. petroglyph, Jun 30, 2014

    petroglyph

    petroglyph Member

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    Responding to the op.

    It is near impossible to win in that situation if you lose your first bet which assumidly would be a minimum pass bet.
    My response is my opinion only and can not be proven with math or any other way I'm aware of, so take it for what its worth.
    I don't think we can win with flat bets that don't vary incrementaly. I also know for sure my br wont support a marty although had I enough money and the house large enough limits I'm pretty sure I could at least break even. Too many ifs.
    So what I've come up with is you have to let your money have a chance to work for you. The only way we will win is from variance otherwise it will be a typical session that blends well somewhere into the law of large numbers.
    I like to think of it as table or game awareness. We have all seen streaks. I've seen more times when one shooter can bring a table down than up.
    Most people believe that there is no such thing as di. Fine. It just makes it harder for me to understand why on a table with say 8 shooters only one person time after time makes repeat points. I'm no mathmatician either so I don't know how that fits in with the cumulous strategis?
    If you go head to head with the house very long I will guarantee you will lose money, we have just got to somehow figure out how to receive odds payouts or we lose just like the charts spell out too us.
     
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  8. Grizzoola, Jul 1, 2014

    Grizzoola

    Grizzoola Member

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    This is what I'm finally realizing, after 40-50 sessions of craps over the last 1 1/2 years. Being able to read the variance is the single most important thing a player can do, other than managing his BR. Those dice will always vary from their theoretical outcomes; the trick for the player is noticing if the variance is high (& numbers are showing before the 7), medium (choppy), or low (pretty close to predictions). At least, this is how I understand variance.

    This is why a player needs at two, or even three, different strategies for the type of variance he sees during a game. I have been betting the same bets, in the same amounts, all the time, believing that it doesn't matter how one bets, because one can't predict outcomes (The Gambler's Fallacy.)

    Yet, in my last 3 or 4 sessions, I've noticed that sometimes the 6 & 8 show a lot; therefore, place the 6/8. Other times neither shows very much. Sometimes the craps numbers go on a streak (high variance?), etc. And, yes, the variance (streak, trend, etc.) can go from high to low or medium, immediately.

    So, I'm trying to develop the ability to read a table before I increase my bets or their amounts (such as taking more odds, etc.), or conversely, to lower them or make fewer of them. There has to be flexibility in how one bets.

    As a side note, I understand variance as described, but I see people referring to variance this way: "increasing odds lowers the variance." I still don't know what they mean. Vary from what? Variance in how one bets has no relation to the variance in the appearance of certain numbers.
     
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  9. KokomoJoe4, Jul 1, 2014

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    this may work well when the 6/8 continue to hit upon your observation, but it sucks when they stop hitting as soon as you place them, then our old friend shows up and says hello.
     
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  10. petroglyph, Jul 1, 2014

    petroglyph

    petroglyph Member

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    @ Grizzoola, did you find a place down this way?

    I think Laughlin craps is friendlier overall but the odds are worse.
     
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  11. Grizzoola, Jul 1, 2014

    Grizzoola

    Grizzoola Member

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    I'm still looking (more or less). Mid-April, I spent 3 days looking at apts. in LV & Henderson. I've ruled out Laughlin because I understand it's hotter there than LV.

    Right now, I may go down to Henderson next month & do some more looking, esp. just south of I-215. I like Green Valley area, but need to look at some apts., like in Silverado Ranch area. Crime rate is what concerns me most & there was a murder a wk. or 2 ago in the Silverado area, so I don't know.

    I do like Green Valley Ranch, Sunset, & casinos in those areas. Most all seem to have $5 tables. Right now, I'm 2 ways about moving anywhere, due to a lot of factors. Thanks for asking.
     
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    Last edited: Jul 2, 2014