Cumulative probabilities, Systems of Play and Chance

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by KokomoJoe4, Dec 10, 2013.

  1. KokomoJoe4, Dec 10, 2013

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Playing the game from either direction on the line surrenders 0.014xyz (1.4xyz%) to the other side.

    This is the basis of MINIMAL casino expectations of success. I have two questions regarding this fact of life at the craps table. Obviously, these numerical expectations go WAY up when other of our "favorite wagers" are factored into the calculation. Only odds reduce the 1.4%, and there are only four bets on the table that allow them.

    Does the difference in calculated probability for success for the Do (0.49292929...) and the Don’t (0.493181818...) make any difference to the player? In Percentage against this is 50.707 % vs. 50.682%. Doesn’t seem like much, but it is something.


    Secondly, concerning making points. We all know the 6:5, 6:4 and 6:3 probabilities of rolling the seven before any of the paired point numbers. They are based on simple math and on the construction of the dice. Even though we often state otherwise, we know that the dice have memory – this is the basis of the game. Sevens roll the most and 2’s and 12’s the least. When the seven hasn’t come up in a long while, we know it is overdue. Nevertheless, I’m betting bigger and bigger as the seven stays away, as long as I’m connecting on come numbers, if not the pass. Nothing wrong with a seven at the right time either. I never let cumulative probability expectations affect my bets – they are always working, unless I’ve got more than one come bet working and the pass has just been made.


    What do you guys who regress in order to protect winnings think about the cumulative calculations? Do they have any effect on your play, or is your play a fall-back to the often heard, “every rol is a 1 in 36 affair”?
     
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  2. basicstrategy777, Dec 10, 2013

    basicstrategy777

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    K

    Conventional wisdom says the dice have no memory....each toss is an indepedent event....yada,yada,yada.

    This is countered with what probability says about how often numbers will show ( and they do show as "predicted" and casinos stake their financial life on it )

    What makes more intuitive sense to you........The math, that says a 7 does not ever to appear........or that after a bunch of tosses, the 7 is due to show ( and it does).

    The question becomes can history, in some fashion, roughly predict the future.

    You must develope a system of play. If it is all random, than any system should be as good or bad as any other system.

    To me, cumulative probability contains some seeds that can bear fruit and what the heck.....how can't hurt.

    Whether it is placing the previous point on the come out because after a very long roll it never showed.........or calling my bets off because the 7 hasn't shown in a God awful long time..........or not seeing a 2/12 show after many, many rolls..........I will make these bets based upon cumulative probability.

    You may have guessed my position based upon what I have said in the past.

    777
     
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  3. KokomoJoe4, Dec 10, 2013

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    If this is true, I'm missing something, because if 'Joe' was nothing but a seven bettor, he would be out about 17 bucks for every $100 wagered, while Josephine, a pass line bettor and occasional 6 or 8'er, would only be out a buck and a half with the same amount at risk.

    Agree with you wholeheartedly here, just don't have the gumption to make "bad" bets even though they might be considered (and in fact are) DUE.
     
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  4. basicstrategy777, Dec 10, 2013

    basicstrategy777

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    Not if Joe was lucky.

    But hey.....we all just have to do it our way.

    If you want to be strictly a math guy and use a sharp pencil, God bless you and good luck. It is said, luck favors the prudent ( but not always).


    777
     
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  5. donald, Dec 10, 2013

    donald

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    Each toss is an independent event holds good only for random shooters. Dice controllers who win millions, toss the dice in a controlled way and the outcome is not random. They skew the randomness of the game and the mathematics of random craps does not hold good. Seven is due may not hold good with a Dice controller who is tossing to avoid the seven.
     
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  6. KokomoJoe4, Dec 10, 2013

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Hmmm,

    Could be wrong but I believe this has been discussed here a time or two previous.

    Should there be a question mark in the bold above? (after any of the three words?)

    Surely you jest, or should I sign up for a course or two? Sorry, but couldn't resist, especially with the obviousness with which you speak (or is that type?)
     
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  7. basicstrategy777, Dec 10, 2013

    basicstrategy777

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    Dice controllers ?..............Holy Moly !! That would be a breakthrough and make you a sure winner. Truly, how could you lose if you can controll the dice, even a little bit.

    Controlling the dice seems like a hard thing to do. I bet it takes alot of practice. But boy, if you can do it you are sitting on a gold mine. I bet it would increase your social life considerably and you would make alot of new friends. Dice controller........I even like the sound of that.

    777
     
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  8. donald, Dec 10, 2013

    donald

    donald Member

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    In Amazon there is a book "Craps Underground" about dice controllers making millions. I did not buy the book. I do not have the talent to be a dice controller. But I am inclined to believe that some can control dice and hence make the game non random. I could be wrong. But if one prefers to play a random game, just do not bet on those who set the dice or bet with them.
     
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  9. KokomoJoe4, Dec 10, 2013

    KokomoJoe4

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    let me know if you determine how this is done. I can probably keep a secret.
     
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  10. $nakeEye$, Dec 10, 2013

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    KokomoJoe4 -

    You can begin your long journey / pilgrimage at :

    www.axispowercraps.com/crapsforum and/or www.diceinstitute.com

    $...eE..$

     
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  11. Heavy

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    If you want to get a book on dice control then start out with Mad Professor's (Tino Gambino) book - The Crapshooter's Bible. It's solid material. Most of the other books on dice control in the market place are simply vehicles to steer players to sign up for the author's classes.

    Yeah, I teach those kind of classes myself. But I won't sell you an infomercial. I will give you a copy of my seminar manual gratis. You can download a copy of it here:

    http://www.crapsfest.com/modules.php?name=Downloads&d_op=viewdownload&cid=7

    I do know a few guys who are making six figures a year playing craps. When I say "few" I mean damn few. Most of these guys play in the high limit parlors. Most play very short hit-and-run players. Several of them are "hired guns" who shoot for high rollers who pay them a percentage of their wins.

    I think it's more important to focus on just what you can achieve with your bankroll as opposed to fantasizing about making millions and living life in the fast lane. I'm quite satisfied to go to the casino, win a couple of hundred bucks, sleep in a comped room, eat a great comped steak and enjoy a show on the house from time to time.

    By the way, you might want to consider what it would take for the average Joe to win $1 Million at craps. Let's say you are a pensioner who plays the Don'ts daily for 20 days out of the month and grinds out a $50 per session win. That's $1000 a month or $12,000 a year. At that (very attainable) win rate it will take this gent a little over 83 years to win $1 Million. Could YOU win $1 Million at craps? Seems to me like all you'd have to do is live long enough.
     
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  12. TDVegas, Jan 4, 2014

    TDVegas

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    I don't see how anyone can make a living at a negative expectation game. It's just not possible unless you're cheating. The mathematical house advantage is written in stone. I've played enough times and hours to realize there is no way to beat the game. Over the long haul, the house edge ALWAYS takes over.

    That being said, I find the 3 point Molly is the best way to play. I've played pass and don't pass enough times to realize that you can play for two hours or more and be up or down $5. Unlike blackjack where a favorable shuffle can net you 8 of 10 hands, I find craps pass or don't pass to be 2 win, 2 loss. 3 win, 1 loss. 1 win, 3 loss. It becomes tedious.
     
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  13. Heavy

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    Yes, but unless you are counting cards blackjack is also a negative expectation game. And it's getting harder and harder to find a decent blackjack game.
     
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  14. basicstrategy777, Jan 4, 2014

    basicstrategy777

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    So....if the odds are against you...you can't be a lifetime winner ?

    777
     
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  15. TDVegas, Jan 4, 2014

    TDVegas

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    If you hit the mega jackpot in slots....sure you can.

    You're not winning at casino gambling unless you fall into three criteria.
    Cheat
    ace poker player
    Ace handicapper.

    I know people want to believe otherwise, but every scheme, every plan, every strategy has been debunked by millions, billions of hours of play time. The casino wins. They woud'nt exist otherwise. Gamblers tend to be a funny bunch. There's always a bunch out there who think they have a plan.

    The building, floor space, tables, machines, employees, healthcare, electric, gas, water, security, debt interest, licenses, payroll, drinks, sports book and on and on and on and on all have to be paid for BEFORE they even see a profit. These places weren't built on winners. It's a nice thought to think you can win over the long haul, but it's just not reality. Sorry.

    I will add that grandma visiting Vegas once a year for 3 days might over a 10 year period be ahead. Might. The long hauler, the guy playing craps once, twice, three times a week, maybe 100-150 times a year (an addict) isn't going to be up at the end of the year. I guess there could always be the slight exception, but I woud not bet on it.

    Gambling is for enjoyment and entertainment. It's a hard reality to accept for those who want to win, but is reality.
     
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  16. Heavy

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    Well, I'll respectably have to disagree with you. Although "contol" is a stretch when combined with the word "dice," it is certainly possible to "influence" the outcome of the roll - which is why most of us in that community talk about "dice setting" and "dice influencing," and not "control." I do know guys who play craps pretty much full time. I say "pretty much" because they also engage in a little sports betting from time to time. And yes, these guys are doing all right for themselves without the complication of a day job. As for blackjack players, I'm well acquainted with a group of guys who have a shared seven figure bankroll and play as a team. They are not cheats, although if a dealer is sloppy they're not above capitalizing on their mistakes. But these guys are making a significant six figure income each off their play.

    Can it be done? Absolutely. Is it easy? If that were the case everybody would be doing it.
     
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  17. Heavy

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    Of course not. There's nothing in it for them. I, on the other hand, HAVE played with these guys and know for a fact they're legit.

    I also know the next step in this discussion - the point where you tell me I am either misinformed or misrepresenting the facts.

    So what's the point?
     
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  18. TDVegas, Jan 5, 2014

    TDVegas

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    There is none. I know what I know and you claim to know what you know. I have mathematics on my side and inconclusive results from dice rolling experiments. You have word of mouth. I also have casinos still in business. Believe what you want, it's a good tall story at cocktail parties.
     
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  19. $nakeEye$, Jan 5, 2014

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    TDVegas -

    A MOST interesting post - if I may say so -

    I , for one , will re-direct my efforts and the others whom I am associated with -

    And disband from attempting to " Beat YOUR Unbeatable game " -

    And focus our intentions on a game which ' Can 'and " Has been " and " Will Be " - beaten !

    Sincerely !

    $...eE..$

     
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  20. TDVegas, Jan 5, 2014

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    It's always nice to have dreams...even unattainable ones.
    Go forth and be happy and convinced you can win. Even though you can't.
    Dreams are good. Play within limits.
     
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