Cumulative probabilities, Systems of Play and Chance

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by KokomoJoe4, Dec 10, 2013.


  1. Heavy

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    See, you just proved my point. Knew your answer before you posted it.

    BTW, whenever anyone puts what is effectively a "demand for proof" on something, I tend to believe the burden of disproving that same thing lies with the person making the demands.

    Believe me, I've been down this path dozens of times over the last twenty years and have heard it both ways from some of the sharpest mathematical minds in the casino industry. Those who believe generally do not need further proof. However, there is plenty of roll tracking software out there one can use to validate whether or not they have an edge. I've been using BoneTracker for around ten years now - and I tracked with pen and paper before that. For those who do not believe, no proof will ever suffice. They always fall back on the same arguments regarding the validity of the recorded results and suggest that the person recording the rolls is "only tracking the good ones" or using a "that roll didn't count" approach to tracking. Same stuff. Different day.

    I will say this. I agree with you that the math of the game is irrefutable. Assuming your inputs are correct - which they are not. Whenever you start lumping all the play of all the players for all time together you'll get something very near (but not exactly) the statistical norm. But take any one player who has some measurable skills and look at his play over 200 sessions a year for ten or fifteen years and you may be surprised.

    I'll leave the last word to you - since I know you'll insist.
     
    #21
  2. TDVegas, Jan 5, 2014

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    "But take any one player who has some measurable skills and look at his play over 200 sessions a year for ten or fifteen years and you may be surprised"
    -----
    By your own words, he'll never let a non believer "look" at his play.
     
    #22
  3. $nakeEye$, Jan 5, 2014

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    TDVegas -

    I do play within ' limits ' -

    However - WHY do the CASINOS need to resort to OUT and OUT cheating methods when THEY have an advantage already ?

    Can / Will YOU answer THAT question ?

    IF and WHEN YOU elect to respond -

    I will provide YOU with actual case law examples of exactly what I am referring to -

    Regards Black Jack AND Craps -

    The casinos are nothing short of thieves and whores !

    And if YOU are affiliated with them -

    Then the age old adage -

    " The acorn does NOT fall too far from the tree " -

    Applies to YOU as well !

    Sincerely,

    $...eE..$

     
    #23
  4. Southern-Comfort, Jan 5, 2014

    Southern-Comfort

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    Is the police officer making an outright accusation that the casinos are cheating? I would love to see your "examples".
     
    #24
  5. $nakeEye$, Jan 5, 2014

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    Southern-Comfort -

    Are you for real or what -

    When the casino can shuffle a multi-deck Black jack game when they " suspect " a player has an ' advantage ' -

    Is THAT NOT cheating ? -

    When the casino allows the personnel at the craps table to wilfully interfere with a shooter who is having a long roll -

    Is NOT THAT cheating ?

    I do NOT believe that YOU are that naïve to ASSuME otherwise -

    They are the biggest cheaters this side of the US Congress -

    You can play and lose ALL day long -

    BUT - exhibit ANY sign of being a knowledgeable / advantage player -

    And then WOE be unto YOU !

    $...eE..$

     
    #25
  6. Southern-Comfort, Jan 5, 2014

    Southern-Comfort

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    Shuffling cards at any time is not against any rule. Nor is your blanket "willfully interfere" statement. They are inconveniences to you, which are done to protect themselves from the "thieves and whores" that they see. Its a two sided coin, and you'll be much happier once you realize that if they were not there, you would not have a place to play at all. The casinos are NOT your enemy. They are your friend, so why not try looking at them as that? If you really feel that they are cheating, why not just stay away from them?
     
    #26
  7. $nakeEye$, Jan 5, 2014

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    TDVegas -

    No - I am NOT angry - I am an ' Educated Consumer ' -

    Who is more than well aware of the cheating antics which is performed on a daily basis by every casino in the world -

    If YOU are not aware of what is transpiring around YOU -

    Then it is YOU who is the ' less than honest persona ' -

    YOU speak with forked tongue - as you have been well trained -

    Politics and casinos are ' bed fellows ' -

    Who is on the top and who is on the bottom is irrelevant -

    Everyone is on their knees to each other -

    AND you as well as I know - the cheating the $5 player is total BS -

    It is NOT the piddly $5 player that is anyone's concern -

    Oh and as to your idiotic remark of being ' clueless ' -

    I am VERY well aware of what is transpiring each and every time I set foot in enemy territory !

    $...eE..$



     
    #27
  8. $nakeEye$, Jan 5, 2014

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    Southern-Comfort -

    You really disappoint me -

    I always had respect for you -

    And thought that you were knowledgeable -

    I will NOT stay away from the casinos - as you suggest -

    However - I will dis-associate myself from the likes of you -

    Obviously, we do not and never will see ' eye to eye ' -

    Especially, after what you consider ' real casino life expectations ' -

    Wish you the best in the future !

    Adios !

    $...eE..$

     
    #28
  9. TDVegas, Jan 5, 2014

    TDVegas

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    Because he's an addict. An angry one too. Terrible combination for casino employees to deal with.
     
    #29
  10. $nakeEye$, Jan 5, 2014

    $nakeEye$

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    TDVegas -

    Yes - as astute as you can be -

    YOU , Sir - are most correct -

    It is " I " who is the culprit here -

    Not YOU , NOT the casinos- and MOST definitely - not that rocket scientist - Southern-Comfort -

    It is " I " -

    Perhaps the shuffling at will by the casinos are a figment of my imagination -

    Perhaps the obvious distractions by the craps persons are also a figment of my imagination -

    Obviously, I do need to have a frontal lobotomy performed so I can be of the mental capacity levels of you and Southern-Comfort -

    Funny thing about that -

    We recently completed a project at NY Presbyterian Hospital in White Plains, NY -

    The same hospital that Jack Nicholson starred in ' One Flew Over the Cuckoos' Nest ' -

    He must have played your character -

    The drooling idiot !

    And a Happy New Year to YOU !

    Sincerely,

    $...eE..$



     
    #30
  11. Southern-Comfort, Jan 5, 2014

    Southern-Comfort

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    You really disappoint me, and you insult your badged brethren by making the statement that you can provide proof of your claims of casinos cheating on request, yet when requested all you can do is insult the person asking for your alleged proof. Is this the type of police officer you were prior to "retiring" from the force?
    You see casinos as cheating because they defend themselves against advantage players... the casinos see the advantage players as the cheaters. Its a self feeding cycle of insanity. Do you have any idea how much you are sounding like your old friend HardEight? Except that he actually attempted to provide the proof he claimed to have, you only claim and off to provide.. them avoid providing.. probably because your proof is even weaker.
    Except you gave a glimpse of what you consider proof. Shuffling a deck of cards? Distraction? Give me a real example of cheating if you are going to make the claim.
    I play craps too. I lose some, win some. Honestly lose more now than before, but I do not see any cheating. My loses are my own fault, or is my wandering mind caused by the noise that was always there anyway? My hand a bit more shaky... damn those casinos for causing my hand to shake.
    Serious, I am having fun at your expense now, and I should apologize. But I am serious about presenting proof. If you have it, show it.
    Again, the casinos are not evil. And the table crew, if you see them as the enemy, you really REALLY don't understand the situation. The casinos are in the ENTERTAINMENT industry. They want you to have fun, and they want you to come back and have more fun. But like every other business in the entertainment industry, they have to pay bills, they need to make money. Unlike most other businesses in the entertainment industry, you have a chance to have them pay you for being entertained. They are not the enemy, they are your friend.
     
    #31
  12. $nakeEye$, Jan 5, 2014

    $nakeEye$

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    Southern-Comfort -

    The casinos are not now - nor will they ever be - ' Your Friend ' -

    YOU need to come to that realization -

    They are in business - they are in the ' gambling ' business -

    They do NOT gamble -

    THEY have a ' bottom line ' to maintain -

    THEY will ensure that THAT bottom line is NOT compromised -

    YOU, Sir , need to ' Re-Evaluate YOUR rationale ' regards the casinos -

    They are NOT your friend !

    You are their pay check !

    YOU need to realize THAT !

    THEY will cut your legs off in less than a heart beat if necessary !

    YOU can take THAT to the bank !

    $...eE..$
     
    #32
  13. Southern-Comfort, Jan 5, 2014

    Southern-Comfort

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    Ok let's stop the theatrics. Your caps and insane ravings are really annoying.
    Just show me the proof you claim to have.
     
    #33
  14. basicstrategy777, Jan 5, 2014

    basicstrategy777

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    TDV....To say because you are playing a negative expectation game you can't win in the long run is silly and mathematically incorrect.

    To say there is inevitable loss is correct........too say there is inevitable loss by everyone is not correct......a vast majority will lose, but not all. There are lifetime craps and blackjack lifetime winners. The math says so. There are those whose luck and skill and personal make-up will beat the odds. There are odds, but there are no absolutes.

    Between my position and your position I would say yours is on shakier ground. IMHO.

    777
     
    #34
    Pressit likes this.
  15. Southern-Comfort, Jan 5, 2014

    Southern-Comfort

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    Actually, he is correct. I can't recall the house advantage at the moment, but its not 100%. It favors the house, but the house will not win all the time. Likewise it is quite possible that a few (but certainly not all) players will win overall. Just like the math says 3 hour sessions are impossible, but they exist.
    Math says that sooner or later I will put in a post that I don't have typos.. I just edited out two
    And for the record. math does lie, or at least tells jokes. Its the absolute measure of accuracy, then it throws PI at us.
     
    #35
  16. basicstrategy777, Jan 5, 2014

    basicstrategy777

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    It is the same math that says each toss is an independent event.....that numbers are not due......that it is possible that a seven can never appear. That math. Also, bumble bees cannot fly ; it is aerodynamically impossible. I'm afraid that is the math you are using.

    777
     
    #36
  17. basicstrategy777, Jan 5, 2014

    basicstrategy777

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    What I believe he means is..... the house will not win 100% of the time from everyone, no matter how long they play.

    This is what you are saying.....and it is not true.

    Probability goes from 0 to 1. Zero ( 0 ) means the event is impossible to occur, while a probabilty of 1 means it is certain to occur.

    You are saying the probabilty of everyone losing at craps over the long term is 1...it is a certainty. Once you read this previous sentence again you will understand why I said what you said was silly and not true.



    777
     
    #37
  18. TDVegas, Jan 5, 2014

    TDVegas

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    He's saying he can't recall, but its not 100%. That makes no sense nor does it reflect anything. No one is saying that every time someone enters a casino, they lose. Short term probability (volatility) is different than long term probability.

    It is always possible to win on any single bet. Casinos know that, in the short term, a player can win (short term volatility), but if someone continues to gamble, it becomes more and more likely that the overall results (cumulative) will be a loss (long term predictability)
     
    #38
  19. The Comeback Kid, Jan 5, 2014

    The Comeback Kid

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  20. basicstrategy777, Jan 5, 2014

    basicstrategy777

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    You're backtracking.

    777
     
    #40