Cumulative probabilities, Systems of Play and Chance

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by KokomoJoe4, Dec 10, 2013.

  1. Sancho Panza, Jan 5, 2014

    Sancho Panza

    Sancho Panza Member

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    Officers of the court typically have a far different judgmental framework from the ones us civilian riffraff use. "Cheating" usually implies illicit or even criminal actions. Unfair or manipulative tactics would be more neutral. After all, no broken laws have been cited.
     
    #41
  2. $nakeEye$, Jan 5, 2014

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    Southern-Comfort -

    The following link is to a case which evolved circa 1989 -

    Anthony Campione - aka " Tony Blueberry " to his class-mates and fellow BJ players took the Trop to court !

    http://cases.laws.com/new-jersey/ne...-of-new-jersey-inc-ta-tropworld-casino-et-als

    And another side to the story :

    http://books.google.com/books?id=CV...a=X&ei=N_3JUte0B8fFsASl7YCgDQ&ved=0CEcQ6AEwBQ

    You will have to do a little reading to get the gist of his complaints !

    $...eE..$

     
    #42
  3. TDVegas, Jan 5, 2014

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    How asinine. 25 years ago a casino took action against an avowed card counter.
    Who gives a sh*t?

    Your rants are hysterical and delusional.
    My god, stay away from gambling.
    You come off as angry at casinos. DON'T GO INTO THEM. Problem solved, for you.

    I've never come across a paranoid like you in all my years...
    Try Internet gambling. You're ability to be around people is suspect.
     
    #43
  4. $nakeEye$, Jan 5, 2014

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    TDVegas -

    Proves my point that you and your cronies are low life cheaters and thieves -

    And unfortunately, you fleas have the blessing of the crooked politicians who are in bed with you !

    The handwriting is on the wall - accept it and live with it -

    But, then again you will not -

    Because that would mean that you have integrity -

    Which you do not possess -

    Good riddance !

    $...eE..$
     
    #44
  5. Sancho Panza, Jan 5, 2014

    Sancho Panza

    Sancho Panza Member

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    In Jersey, card counting is not cheating. And the court clearly found that the approved measure to counter it do not constitute cheating.
     
    #45
  6. TDVegas, Jan 6, 2014

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    NJ is a little different than Vegas. They'll make playing difficult.
     
    #46
  7. Southern-Comfort, Jan 6, 2014

    Southern-Comfort

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    Card counting is not cheating, and neither is the house reshuffling the cards. The player has the right to leave if they don't like it.. the casino has the right to tell the player to leave and never come back if.. well actually they don't even need to give a reason, they have the right just as any other business does.
    Card counting is not illegal. It can be debated as to whether its cheating... but in the end every casino has the right to decide they don't want it.
     
    #47
  8. KokomoJoe4, Jan 6, 2014

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    TD,

    I have played craps regularly, typically twice a week, for going on my tenth year. Sessions are always short. Buy-ins $200-300, occasionally $500 after a nice winner. My records of play begin in July 2004 and currently show over 1100 sessions. Over nine 12 month periods of time, only one year shows more losing sessions than winners, and only two years show negative cash balance.

    The worst I'm going to do is leave $150 on the table, and have done this a hell of alot of times. Many sessions going up & down & nowhere are quit when ahead by twenty or thirty bucks. Fortunately, there are the occasional times when numbers are hit, odds are collected, bets progress and hit several more times before the big loss, or when luckier, the crap out without loss of a large odds bet.

    This play does NOT involve some infallible system and does not involve influence. It's just conservative, low HA play that gets aggressive when appropriate, and most importantly, luck. I have no plans to take up the game as a profession, but it can be a alot of fun, especially since the cost of future play is coming out of my safe via the casino.
     
    #48
  9. The Midnight Skulker, Jan 6, 2014

    The Midnight Skulker

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    A very recent discussion over in the Roulette Forum may be of interest to you. See http://www.rouletteforum.com/viewthread/15066/#37747. Obviously the talk there is about roulette, but it also applies to craps...and to any game of chance for that matter.

    My point here is that the math starts with the assumptions that the game, be it craps or roulette, is a series of random and independent trials, with "random" meaning that all results are equally likely. In roulette this means the ball has the same chance of landing in any pocket as it has of landing in any other pocket. In craps this means that all six faces of each die have the same chance of showing as any other face. Proceeding from the "random and independent" assumptions the math logically shows that in the long run the casino must win. However, in any time period shorter than that long run the math shows that individual players can come out ahead; not that any players will come out ahead, only that they can.

    The same math that proves the house has a long term advantage can also be used to prove that a player can have a long term advantage simply by starting with a different set of assumptions, namely that the trials are not random, that some faces of each die are more likely to show than other faces. Of course this does not prove that any player has an advantage, only that it is theoretically possible for a player to have an advantage if he/she can introduce a sufficient level of non-randomness into the trials. That is what the dice influencing debate is all about, not the math of the game.
     
    #49
  10. Grizzoola, Jan 6, 2014

    Grizzoola

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    TDV, this discussion reminds me of the "Is there a God? Do we have a soul?" questions in religion. If you somehow believe there is a god and you do have a soul, then your thinking is just like those who believe they can "beat the odds." Science has over the years disproved much of the claims of religions. Yet, people adhere to the belief that there is a god and that they do have souls.

    It's the same for those who love to play craps, whether for fun or to "make money." I enjoy craps, but I'm also mindful of my bankroll and overall financial situation. Like many others, I always go into a session hoping to come out ahead, even with very little. After over a year and about 30 sessions, I'm a little above even. And, yes, at various stages along the line I've been ahead a lot.

    Whether I can end this year still ahead, we'll see. Like many, I still have hope of "beating the odds," that maybe I'll be an exception. I think that's where a lot of players are coming from. They know the general rule, but hope that they can be an exception.

    Alexander Pope, a 17th Century London poet, has, I think, summed up the human condition quite well:

    "Hope springs eternal in the human breast.
    Man never is, but to be, blessed."

    Of course, he was talking about a lot more than just gambling.
     
    #50
  11. The Comeback Kid, Jan 6, 2014

    The Comeback Kid

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    Don't know if you 2 have been formally introduced?

    Lou’s “The Strategy” will be presented January 18-20 in Tunica

    See in Trip Planning and Meetups

    Talk amongst yourselves.

    We'll be waiting by our computer screens for the riveting details.

    It doesn't get better than this!
     
    #51
  12. superrick, Feb 16, 2015

    superrick

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    If the math of the game doesn't lie, why is there variance?
     
    #52
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  13. goatcabin, Feb 16, 2015

    goatcabin

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    TDVegas:
    1) I agree that the only people who "believe" in dice "influencing" are those that are writing books about it and teaching it.

    2) Probability says that over a reasonable period of time the casinos will be ahead and the players, taken as an aggregate, will be behind. However, variance ensures that there will be large differences among the results of different players. When you talk about the "long run", what do you mean? The more bets that you make, the larger the expected loss becomes, relative to the variance, so that it becomes less likely that an individual player will be ahead, the longer he/she plays. Still, even a regular player will probably never reach the point where it takes Sigma Six to still be ahead. Saying that math proves that every player will lose his entire bankroll to the house is (sort of) like saying the math says you can have a million rolls without a seven, in that neither really relates to what actually happens.

    3) Since variance is the only thing that allows players to win, increasing it increases your chances, while also, of course, increasing the cost of bad luck.

    Once the expected loss is equal to the standard deviation, which, for the line bets is at about 5000 bet resolutions, is takes one standard deviation of positive variation to overcome the ev, and the probability of being that lucky is about .16. However, if the player takes (or lays) single odds, the standard deviation is still almost double the ev after 5000 bets, so the probability of a player still being even or better is about .3. For double odds, it's .36, for 3, 4, 5x odds, it's .42, etc. etc.

    Now, I'm not suggesting that 5000 bets is anywhere near the "long run", but just trying to show how lots of variance keeps the standard deviation ahead of the expected loss for a long time. It takes a hell of a lot of bets to reduce the probability of being ahead to Sigma Three, the probability of which is .0013, which is only 769 to 1 against.

    What's your definition of "long term" for an individual player?
     
    #53
  14. goatcabin, Feb 16, 2015

    goatcabin

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    Cumulative probabilities, BTW, are useful ONLY if one understands that they are valid only before the sequence starts. I posted some cumulative probabilities in the thread about progressive vs. flat betting. They are useful in showing that progressive betting requires consecutive wins to be ahead of flat betting, but they are easily misinterpreted and misused.

    The key is to understand that, as each event transpires, the probabilities must be re-figured. An simple example is two coin flips:

    TT .25
    TH .25
    HT .25
    HH .25

    If the first flip is heads, TT and TH now have probabilities of zero for THIS SEQUENCE. Since the total of all the still-possible outcomes must be 1.0, the probabilities of HT and HH are now .5. However, the probabilities of the NEXT two flips go back to .25 each.

    This is a very, very common misunderstanding, leading to erroneous belief in numbers being "due".
     
    #54
  15. TDVegas, Feb 16, 2015

    TDVegas

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    I would say someone playing at least once a week is a long term player. I never said they will lose their entire bankroll each time they play. The great thing about craps is you can keep the house edge very low--as opposed to slots or other "mail in the check" games. There's give and take and I guess maybe there are a few long timers out there net ahead a bit, but I think the number is so miniscule it's not even worth noting.

    #1, I don't believe anyone is becoming financially enriched playing craps nor do I believe anyone is making a living. There may be some minute exceptions but generally that is usually just internet braggery. Just thinking logically if your goal was 52K/year. If in your first week it doesn't go well and you lose $500...well next week you need to make your 1,000 plus the $500 you lost plus another 1,000 just to get back on track. God forbid you have 2 bad weeks in a row. Now it's like a raging river against you just to get back even.

    The tourist coming into Vegas for 3 days once, twice a year certainly can be a winner. The short term variance helps that happen. Without short term variance, there would be no casinos unless people like losing 2% or 5% or 10% each time they play.

    You see a lot of regular posters here saying they play hardways bets, fire bets and other enormous house edge bets---I just can't believe you can get and stay ahead playing 50+ times a year doing that.
     
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    Last edited: Feb 16, 2015
  16. TDVegas, Feb 16, 2015

    TDVegas

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    I don't believe in numbers being due. I don't believe in "feelings" or "intuition" or any of the other witch doctor stuff. I don't believe positive thinking helps you win....but that's me. If others want to believe they hear voices...so be it.
     
    #56
  17. goatcabin, Feb 16, 2015

    goatcabin

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    That's not specific enough. I want a number of bets that someone would make in a lifetime of play.

    This is not about sessions; it's obvious that players win sessions. You are talking about cumulative outcome, and so am I.

    I had to modify my program, because when I tried to tell it to calculate ev and SD for 100,000 bets it choked. Problem was, that I was using a short integer variable for the number of bets, since when I wrote the program, many years ago, I wasn't thinking in terms of lifetime play. I changed it to a long integer, so:

    for 1,000,000 bets, all $5 pass
    pass, no odds: ev -$70,707, SD $4999.50, Sigma 14+, prob. ~0
    pass, single odds: ev same, SD $9791.50, Sigma 7+, prob. ~0
    pass, double odds: ev same, SD $14,286, Sigma 5, prob. <.0001
    pass, 3, 4, 5x odds: ev same, SD $24,576, Sigma 2.9, prob. .002
    pass, 10x odds: ev same, SD $54,045, Sigma 1.3, prob. .09
    DP, 20x odds: ev -$70,129, SD $105,477, Sigma .66, prob. .25

    For a more realistic situation, pass w/3, 4, 5x odds, 100,000 bets, ev is -$7071, SD $7772, Sigma .91, p .18.

    So, the player with average luck will be around $7000 behind, and the "mirror image" of the player breaking even (.91 SD to the worse), will be losing over $14,000.

    The numbers will vary, of course, with different bet amounts, but not the Sigma numbers.

    The reason it becomes more likely that a player will be behind the more he/she plays is that the variance (SD) increases much more slowly than the expected loss, with the square root of the number of bet, not the number of bets.
     
    #57
  18. TDVegas, Feb 16, 2015

    TDVegas

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    That's tough to do unless we make some assumptions. I would offer the guy playing at least once a week and playing for at least 2 hours or so each time and goes with $300 bankroll. There are a lot of variables though---does he leave the table after a win amount?---He could be gone after 5 minutes depending on that amount. If I was driving a couple hours to the casino, would I leave after 5 minutes after I made my $25 or am I staying to enjoy play time? I like playing but there is also a balance in regard to money won...or lost.

    Lets say once a week for 2 hours of play---how many outcomes is that? I don't know. That's 104 hours for years 25 thru 75. 50 years of play.

    Lets also say his play involves some higher house edge bets like fire bets, hardways bets.
     
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    Last edited: Feb 16, 2015
  19. Harley, Feb 16, 2015

    Harley

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    TDVegas - Since you live in Vegas, how often do you play craps ??
     
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  20. TDVegas, Feb 16, 2015

    TDVegas

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    Maybe once a week, give or take.
     
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