Cumulative probabilities, Systems of Play and Chance

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by KokomoJoe4, Dec 10, 2013.

  1. Onautopilot, Feb 16, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    There is really no way to look at one individual's play over a 50 year period to determine the chance that he might be a winner overall, with unknown variables in his play....prop bets, parlays, variation in bet size, amount of odds, etc. There is no way that anyone could use mathematics / probability to determine the "chance" that someone is lying about being a lifetime winner, because there is no way to know all the variables. The statement, "I'm a lifetime winner", or, "I make a living playing craps" will always remain a rhetorical declaration....a take it or leave it thing. And with the unknown variables, it would be difficult to even come close to computing the odds of the statements validity, or lack thereof. In your example, that would be about 5,000 hours of play, or 150,000 line decisions. But there is no way to know the number of betting decisions, come, place, lay, props, etc. Alan could take al of the exact variables, and come up with the "chance", but there will never be any "exact variables" provided. You can make up the variables, and run a simulation, but that is never reality, why bother. But having said that, one could plug in the most optimum betting strategy, and come up with those chances, Alan has already done that many times, and that does tell you that a less than optimum strategy diminishes the chance considerably, in most cases to the point one might say...."Ether you are a liar, or the luckiest SOB in the world. :)
     
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  2. betwthelines, Feb 16, 2015

    betwthelines

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    Probability math says so. You overstate it if you are saying there are no lifetime winners at craps. There are, have been and in fact probability math says there MUST be. These very few have simply been lucky. And lucky COMPLETELY in accordance with MATHEMATICAL (probability) variance. You are totally correct, however, when you state things like no one makes a living playing craps...(and, yes, at the end, it's true, mathematically all lose...but the mathematical "end" is infinitely--if I dare use that word--longer than anyone's "lifetime")...

    I posted on a thread here results of my first million simulated craps rolls (mostly wincraps, rolled out one-at-a-time, but about 90k or so were with real casino dice rolled into a felt-lined box with care taken to insure randomness)...this took over 29 years and the bankroll and bet amounts mimicked practicality and availability of casino offerings of the times, starting out with 25cent, double odds (1974) but it was often 10x odds $3 or $5 min...it was all Tough Craps, p/c/odds & its RELENTLESS progression with some very, very rare dp/dc/lay thrown in...After 1,000,053 rolls the game was AHEAD over $21,000...(alas <sigh> real play [& the next 682k and counting simulated rolls] have not been so lucky)...

    I posted these results in 2003 on the defunct rec.gambling. craps site and a very well respected math guy there (whose name now unfortunately escapes me) replied that 11% would be EXPECTED to be ahead after a million rolls, playing double odds...now this figure does seem awfully high to me but it's what he said...perhaps a mathhead here could chime in...

    To repeat some WILL win over a lifetime (but you wont </:^) and indeed probability variance says that some MUST win, at least if you play the best vig bets...tom p
     
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  3. goatcabin, Feb 16, 2015

    goatcabin

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    A million rolls would be something less than 300,000 passline decisions. At $5 pass, 3, 4, 5x odds, the ev would be -$21,212, SD $134,461, Sigma 1.58, p = .0575. It would be higher with higher odds multiples, lower with double odds. Mason? Stacy? Mark?
     
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  4. betwthelines, Feb 16, 2015

    betwthelines

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    Most often Tough Craps involves 1 passline and a limit of 3 come bets, sometimes 2 or 4 comes or even just one pass (at the bitter end), the exact number dependent upon the status of the bankroll (of course [it seem like anyway] you manage to make it up on four numbers total something less than half the time)

    But now that you mention it (thanks!) I think it was Stacy who replied on r.g.c that about 11% of players at double odds would be expected to be ahead after a million rolls...again, this seem an awful high percentage to me but i'm pretty sure it's what he said...and after all my first mil did reveal a winner...tom p
     
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  5. TDVegas, Feb 16, 2015

    TDVegas

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    OK....which side do you fall on?
     
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  6. TDVegas, Feb 16, 2015

    TDVegas

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    Ok...out of 1,000 regular gamblers, how many?
     
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  7. Onautopilot, Feb 16, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    I'm not a lifetime winner, money wise. So neither.
     
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  8. betwthelines, Feb 16, 2015

    betwthelines

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    110 ("11%") according to one math guy...bear in mind however that would include ONLY those bettors who bet ONLY the pass and come with double odds...(too 11% is most likely a rounded number, up or down...don't and lay bettors would likely round to the same but with a slightly higher percentage)...at these bets some MUST win lifetime...probability MATHEMATICS indicates so...once again, to me personally, this seems awfully high but the one who said it--"Stacy" I believe--was a highly regarded math guy on the old r.g.c site...(mathwise I am myself rather clueless)...

    I think I understand--and agree with--the gist of what you are saying, it is just that saying that NO ONE wins lifetime is simply not true...tom p
     
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  9. Onautopilot, Feb 16, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    You would be hard put to convince me that a lifetime gambler would only just play one bet strategy their whole life, and at the same bet levels all the time. So, in my opinion, all those probability syms are just theoretical, and probably would not apply to any real life craps player. I'm not saying there is no life time winners, I believe there are a few. I just don't think the math is the way to find the probable numbers of them, just too many variables in most real craps player's game.
     
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  10. goatcabin, Feb 16, 2015

    goatcabin

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    Yes, they are just theoretical, JB. They are just intended to demonstrate that variance can stay ahead of expected loss for a long time. Many players get a lot more variance, by increasing their bets, like Tom, but of course that also adds expected loss.
     
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  11. betwthelines, Feb 16, 2015

    betwthelines

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    Now you might argue that NO ONE makes these low vig bets EXCLUSIVELY...and you would be practically correct...I will re-state unequivocally here that there are only TWO known bettors in the entire world that play tough exclusively...I cant speak for the other one but I can say that one of 'em aint gonna be no stinkin' lifetime winner!...(short of a miracle)...tom p
     
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  12. TDVegas, Feb 16, 2015

    TDVegas

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    I woud be curious to know of those 11% (sounds high to me but whatever)---what we're talking about in dollars won. I realize that is dependent on bankroll and betting but if it was allotting say $500/week to gamble with playing 1 strategy over time---are we talking $15/week....$50...$75 in winnings per week on average? Is there anyway to assume a pass line bet $25 with 1-2-3x odds and get a number in profit?
     
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    Last edited: Feb 16, 2015
  13. goatcabin, Feb 16, 2015

    goatcabin

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    The 11% figure, or my more accurate (IMO) 5% in a post above, just refers to the likelihood of a player breaking even or better; it doesn't address an amount. The amounts are on a continuum. You could ask, what is the probability a player would be ahead by x amount after y decisions; different question.
     
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  14. Onautopilot, Feb 16, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    I understand that, and I like the math, like you say, it does a great job of describing the game, and looking at all the possible scenarios. I just don't believe there will ever be enough real "aggregate players", that play exactly the same way, to draw any conclusions from a probability simulation as to how many actual players might be lifetime winner. I think it will always be a rhetorical, self proclaimed thing, nothing else. In deciding the truth of ones claim, trust is the only consideration for me in this instance.
     
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  15. betwthelines, Feb 16, 2015

    betwthelines

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    I can tell you unequivocally that you are wrong. There are at least two players in the world that play tough EXCLUSIVELY. (OTOH you are "substantially" 'not wrong' as over the years I have posted literally DOZENS of times on various craps boards that there are "only 2 known players in the world" that play tough exclusively [well, ok, originally it was only "1", til I met the other]...this statement has never been disputed)...

    Whether or not I can convince you that I play tough exclusively is of zero concern to me. I know what I play...tom p


    No. I am NOT a "theory"...The other guy was living and breathing too ...tom p
     
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  16. betwthelines, Feb 16, 2015

    betwthelines

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    Yeah, what he said...The strategy was the same throughout the million rolls: Tough Craps (you may or not wish to refer to my thread here of the same name) ---and, yes, 5% sounds more realistic to me than 11% but then again remember that I have only practiced a million rolls ONCE...and it came out $21,181 ahead with a zenith actually of +$29,808 after 913,015 rolls (working on my 2nd mil, 685,646 rolls into it, sitting at a much more expected minus $45,902)---but as Alan outlined the actual dollar amounts varied widely, reflecting my own financial situation but more especially what offerings were available at the casinos at any given time (quarter craps --25 cents, double odds--initially back in 1974)...tom p
     
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