Dice Play in the days of Covid

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by Craps Poopshoot, Nov 1, 2020.

  1. Craps Poopshoot, Nov 1, 2020

    Craps Poopshoot

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    I have been playing a lot of Dice as of late. It is very challenging...

    - Mask has to be worn
    - Only 3 or 4 players per side
    - Two sets of dice, one for the shooter and the other set in the disinfectant. Switched per shooter.
    - Plastic barriers on the tables, the Orleans has you in a plastic box!

    Tables are mostly at $10 to $15 during the weekdays and $25 to $50 during the weekends. Most tables close at 2 am, and open again at 8 am. 24/7 table play is not happening in the days of covid.

    Problems:
    - dealers cannot hear you, you cannot understand the dealers. The mask, the plastic, and casinos are only hiring cheap dealers (English as a second language).... Many difficulties with booking bets on the table.
    - Saggy pants boys. They are the LA boys from the rough parts of town. They get uppity when they lose when things don't go well. They are here in Vegas because they have nowhere else to go, no job, and no prospects.
    fcea8fbefaf5769043e053628e64-is-sagging-a-good-thing-for-young-boys.jpg
    - Cannot find a spot to play. Few tables are open, those that are are full with the above-mentioned boys.
    - Lots of chip thieves about. So you have to really watch your chips!
    - Crime! Phones are being stolen, wallets and purses too. You really have to watch out when you are in the company of the LA people.

    My Play
    $1000 buy-in
    $44 insides, then regress to a single bet or no bets after 5 rolls from the 7.
    If the 7 is showing up under 5 rolls, I switch to the don'ts with a $30 bet and no odds. If the 7 and 11 are hitting on the come-out rolls, I just lay the point for $30.
    If the dice rolls seem to be above 8 rolls before the 7-out, ill take the first 3 hits, then press up - in hopes of catching a good roll.

    Typically, I will play as long as I need till I am up (200 or more). If I have been struggling at the table, I play till I am $50 on either side of my buy-in.

    I make NO center table bets! NONE! No field bets either.

    If the table I am at is choppy, where I am losing it as quickly as I make it - I color up and find another table.

    Of course, I have losing sessions. Impossible to win all the time, but I win more than I lose, so the grind is worth it.

    Cocktail girls are quickly at the tables since there is not a lot of table game players for them to serve. Food Comps from the Table Games bosses are hard to get now, and if you get it where to use it is a question since all of the buffets are closed, and the cafes are opened only for short times.

    Results
    I make enough to pay my bills and build the bankroll.
    Comps and points from the table games are OK, but what to do with them is a question. No buffets, cafes are closed, as are other venues that I would normally spend the points at.

    CHANGES COMING
    Cashless gaming is coming to Vegas. I am actually OK with that, I don't want to carry thousands of dollars on me.
    Chipless gaming is also coming too. Lots of tables now have the touch panels where you place bets. Chipless dice tables are making their way into Vegas! I guess covid can live on chips.

    Many casinos are now requiring to show ID when you enter. Circa demands it, Cosmopolitan has implemented it. NO ID, no entry. I am unsure if they run a 'Wants and Warrants' checks on those who they ID. It is very likely that all major casinos will be checking ID's when you enter. If you don't like that, then don't go to those casinos. Many of the smaller off-strip casinos won't check unless you look rough or homeless.

    Las Vegas does not want to be like Atlantic City, with criminals and gangs dominating the casinos, alongside every low-life scum you can think of.

    The Future Darkly
    It is likely that the Las Vegas major casinos will become the playground for the world's elite who will be living in a bubble, separated from the poverty-stricken masses, and covid free. They have the money and will be virus-free, crime-free, and well behaved.

    Casinos that will cater to the poor will be tight, low limits, lots of armed guards, and casino heat for anything they deem as 'unwanted behavior'. Most likely not a casino that any decent person will want to go to, or work at.
     
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  2. TDVegas, Nov 2, 2020

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    There really is no such thing as a “grind play“ for a player when you are being “shorted fair payment” on every winning bet and losing in total on every losing bet.

    A grind play is how the casino makes money, not the player. They grind every player and every bet (minus odds bet) by paying less than fair odds on wins and taking the full bet on a loss. Think of a river and a rock. The casino is the river. The player is the rock. The “grind“ of the water continually running wears down the rock. Gambling works the same way.

    Unless there is dice control or dice manipulation or bias dice or cheating...it’s technically an impossible way to ensure consistent winning (ie, net gains).

    Luck will only take the player so far. He needs more than table time, low house edge bets, bankroll management, loss limits, etc. to ensure long term profit. He needs a way to overcome house edge beyond flat out “muck em and chuck em” dice results.

    There is no wagering system to beat a game that holds a mathematical edge...beyond variance. Variance will only ensure you win some of the time but it still ultimately ensures a long term loss.

    Even a martingale will do that with a 90% win rate (9 in 10 win sessions).

    I would not risk cheating.
    I don’t think anyone can spot bias dice.

    You need dice influence or control to do what you’re doing...technically, mathematically. Spotting a hot or cold table and having a “feel” or “know“ it will continue and a player can profit would fall under dice influence, IMO. A gambler can spot something in a toss or bounce that gives them an idea of what’s coming next. DI.
     
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    Last edited: Nov 2, 2020
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  3. von duck, Nov 2, 2020

    von duck

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    I'm just glad to hear that he can still make ends meet with his craps winnings. This Covid thing must have cost at least half of the pro dice players, their "JOB". :confused: It was also very sporting of him to outline his fool proof, "winning strategy". :) I guess some guys are just "survivors". :cool:
     
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  4. Craps Poopshoot, Nov 3, 2020

    Craps Poopshoot

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    If you play a Dice system like a robot, where you make the same bets every shooter, Yes TDVegas, you will lose!

    The same thing is also said about Market Trading too! ( 95% Of Traders Lose Money )

    Shocking But True: 90% People Lose Money In Stocks
    About 95% of Casino gamblers lose - WSJ

    Yet, despite the odds, people do win.

    I have been reading a lot about Market trading, and just as there are dice hustlers, there are market hustlers who will sell you a system too.
    Many of the expert traders describe Market trading as 'casino like' and that the market is random!!

    However, Random can get streaky and have runs, both in the short term and long-runs. This is how money is made! Those who work the Swings, usually make money - but it is WORK and as the player you have to be engaged in the game fully, otherwise, inattention will cause you to lose.

    The gambler (be it the dice player or the market trader) has to be astute as to the trends and the runs that are presented. Things can change quickly, so one as to be alert when playing the game - otherwise, don't play!

    Those who are Market Masters (who actually make money in the Markets) are called "Skilled Traders" and are legionary! What is the skill they have? They can spot trends and runs, jump on them, and get out with PROFIT. Let me tell you that people like that EAT, BREATH, and SHIT MARKET all-day-long! You think if you meet such a person that they are in some cult or have some mental issue where they are obsessed with the Market.

    "The market is too risky" - common quote


    I know this guy who is a retired Dice Pitboss. He worked at all the major casinos here in Las Vegas for over 35 years, including a few that are now demolished. Here is what he said about dice:

    - Most players really don't understand the game,
    - Most are not all that engaged in the game, their attention wanders and they are easily distracted (Sports on TV, Dealers discussions, Dancers on risers, Drink girls, and other antics)
    - Most players bet poorly, (Field, hardways, proposition bets, feature bets)
    - Most players don't swing with the table, they just play the same way no matter what.

    Actually, I know a market guy who said that the Casino is actually more predictable than the Market is!

    Dice (Two 6-siders) will always create the dice Triangle

    DiceP.png

    The nature of dice is that the percentages above won't vary more than a few percent, creating SWINGS. Dice run HOT, Dice run Cold.

    Here is what the typical swings for Dice:
    5% HOT
    15% Warm
    60% Indeterminate
    15% Chilly
    5% COLD

    Funny thing is that the above can be said about any Market too. LOL

    Traders don't like Indetermante markets, nor do Craps Players.
    Traders look for Trends (Bulls or Bears), dice Players look for Trends (Do's or Don'ts)
    The play for Indeterminate markets is micro moves. VERY SHORT exposures for your bets!

    Q:
    So, if assuming that the above is true, why then are we all not quitting our day jobs and making money on the tables?
    (This is the same question about Day-Trading in the Market)

    A:
    Not everyone has the chops to grind (meaning to spend the time at the tables, to be attentive to the swings, and have the discipline to play them). Furthermore, most people are highly distracted, lacking any ability to focus or concentrate on the matter at hand, and unable to put in the time needed to make it work.
     
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  5. Craps Poopshoot, Nov 4, 2020

    Craps Poopshoot

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    Professional Winning is NOT EASY - It's work, lots of hard work.

    The Professional knows the odds and the risk. - Expected Value (EV) & Bayesian Analysis In Trading

    "HOUSE EDGE! YOU CANNOT BEAT HOUSE EDGE"
    Nope, you can't. There is no way to change that on the dice table (legally)

    So lets look at placing the Insides (5,6,8,9) for 6 ROLLS of the shooter. Mathematically, I have a 50% of surviving 6 rolls

    So the first roll the shooter sets the point, we don't win or lose on this roll, so lets say the shooter sets the 6 as the point, it does not really matter to us because we are place betting
    The plan is to collect 2 wins then take the bets down or after the 5th roll to take down the bets

    I have a 50% chance to win, 16.5% to lose, and 33.4% of push

    I am risking 22 to win 14

    WOULD YOU TAKE THIS BET?

    The answer is - IT DEPENDS! LOL

    Most players with any sort of experience would say that if the dice are trending over 8 rolls, they jump on this bet. But if the dice are trending very short rolls, most would pass on this bet and wait for better rolls to come along.

    Oh, does this mean dice are streaky? Yeah, that is what it means.

    But - NOBODY KNOWS NOTHING! Meaning, nobody knows what the dice will roll or do.

    Why not leave the bets up and make more money?
    Greedy Piggys get slaughtered! LOL
    The average number of rolls in Craps is 8, however, I think it is around 5 or 6 personally. Why the hell should I leave my bets up? Im there to win, not to help the casino pay its bills.

    Ah, but you can free-roll after 3 wins. 22 insides will pay 21 after 3 wins, and if the dice are streaky where the shooters seem to be getting 8 or more rolls then perhaps going LONG is the key.

    BUT, if the dice are choppy to short then GOING SHORT is the key.

    BUT if the Dice are just ICE, then being the BEAR Don't player may be the key.

    OH, JUST WHAT TO DO? - THIS IS ALL SO CONFUSING?

    NO SYSTEM CAN EVER BEAT CRAPS. Playing dice like a robot, same bet pattern, and method on every shooter will eventually fail. It's not to say that methods and betting patterns should not be used, cause I use them all the time, however, what I am saying is that you have to determine WHEN TO USE THEM, and that is not an easy thing to do.

    Q: I don't want to wait. I want to walk in and only spend 20 minutes at the table and walk away with a profit.
    A: Well, then the casino will be happy to see you!

    My Craps Dealing Girlfriend tells me that sometimes the tables run HOT during her entire shift, and other days it runs COLD her entire shift. Most of the time the Tables are Indeterminate with micro HOT and COLD trends. Humm, so she seems to be saying that the dice have trends and oscillate from Hot to cold. Very Interesting
     
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  6. TDVegas, Nov 4, 2020

    TDVegas

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    Most definitely dice can trend hot or cold. The problem is you don’t know this until after the fact. Damn casino makes you wager before the dice are thrown.

    If a 7 can be rolled at any time....and the casino is shorting me on every winning bet AND it’s a random game....it’s impossible to win beyond flat out luck.

    This of course doesn’t apply to anyone who uses some kind of thinking that they can read the tea leaves of dice results...and can discern what trend is coming and make bets. I don’t believe any of that is actually possible. That would be a form of dice control.

    You’re only as good as the next toss of the dice. If someone is telling me they have an idea what’s coming beyond the flat out statistical odds of it happening....my assumption is they aren’t here discussing it.
    I don’t think that is correct. That assumes within your 6 ROLLS that you will hit the numbers you’ve covered. Of those 18 combinations, there are still 18 combinations that can roll that yield no win or completely wipe out all four bets.

    With the 6 rolls, you have a 50% chance of hitting 3 winners and 3 non winners (6 of those non winners clears all your bets). Hitting 3 numbers (for example 5-5-9) is the only combination that puts you ahead by $1. If a 6 or 8 are in there (5-5-8)....you only break even. ($15-$15-$14 = $44)

    If it’s 6-8-9....you lose ($14-$14-$15 = $43) with $44 laid out.
     
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    Last edited: Nov 4, 2020
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  7. Awesomerich, Nov 4, 2020

    Awesomerich

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    Craps is rigged. . I used to be a craps player until I saw with my own eyes that the casino has total control of all action on the table. I have not played since that day. I've never worked for a casino to know any inside tricks.
     
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  8. von duck, Nov 4, 2020

    von duck

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    OK, let's say they DO have some control. What is the mechanism they use, to achieve said control. I'm not sure if I even know all of the possibilities. Give me your theory, and I'll share with you some of mine, though I'll say, all I have is observations, and theories. Fire away man. :cool:
     
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  9. Awesomerich, Nov 4, 2020

    Awesomerich

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    It's no theory. It's all about the computer that takes all info of you buy ins. watch the supervisor the whole time. Dont let them see you watching cause it won't work. Have you ever wondered why he's touching to computer when nothing happens or when they change dealers? Its preset buttons on a touch screen that let a few numbers come out then 7.
     
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  10. HornHighBLEVE, Nov 4, 2020

    HornHighBLEVE

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    Awesomerich, that would be cheating and there's no way they could cover that up for long or explain that greed to the public.

    The odds are already in their favor anyway...they always win in the end.
     
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  11. Awesomerich, Nov 4, 2020

    Awesomerich

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    So why is it that a dont pass player still loses. Casinos will never be a honest business that's why their still in business. A business that was run by a mob at one time all of sudden becomes honest business because of management change is bull shit. A craps game is like three card monte. Meaning your the only sucker that believe you can win. Cause in three card monte you have almost the same amount of people working the con.
     
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  12. von duck, Nov 4, 2020

    von duck

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    I have seen what would appear to be unnecessary action on the pad, to the point where it is actually hilarious. I don't know what all business is carried on with the pad, but it's more than just the players cards, which by the way, I would never possess. Your voice does not fall on deaf ears, as I also have witnessed "shenanigans" with the pad. I believe that is one piece of the puzzle. Anything else? :cool:
     
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  13. TDVegas, Nov 4, 2020

    TDVegas

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    That’s because the design of the game and the payoffs ensures that the house wins on both ends. Ever play when both right side and dark side players lose while playing at the same time? I have.

    Craps is like a perfect organism. There is no flaw in it that can be exploited for wins. We win when the gods from above throw down a tiny bit of variance. Luck.

    Casinos....like carnival games, are in business and make money because, yes, the game is rigged in their favor. Some might use a different term than rig.

    These marble palaces weren’t built by winning players.

    Better luck to you.
     
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  14. TDVegas, Nov 4, 2020

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    no question....

    DCAA828A-64D5-44BF-BACD-720D685CE1EF.jpeg
     
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  15. von duck, Nov 4, 2020

    von duck

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    No, it wouldn't be like that, and I never really speculate as to the mechanism. I know that awesomerich is really YOU or one of the other shills, and this is contrived posting, trying to milk me for info. Forgetaboutit man, I ain't telling you SHIT! :cool:
     
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  16. TDVegas, Nov 4, 2020

    TDVegas

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    Haha...great.
     
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  17. Dave G Ct, Nov 4, 2020

    Dave G Ct

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    Gee TD talking about DI! Spent so much time in that section he now knows it inside and out.

    Craps rigged? Of course they have a HA or why would they have the game in the casino. I still like regression unless betting 4 & 10. Honest have not been out this year but I do practice. Hope we can get back to normal.
     
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  18. TDVegas, Nov 4, 2020

    TDVegas

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    Dave....I know next to nothing about DI other than I believe it’s the only viable way to beat craps. That of course, assumes it is possible to influence wanted dice results.
     
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  19. yacraps, Nov 5, 2020

    yacraps

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  20. yacraps, Nov 5, 2020

    yacraps

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    LOL..thats pretty much all you've been telling :D
     
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