Don’t pass hop 7s

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by Scott venedam, Dec 11, 2019.

  1. Scott venedam, Dec 11, 2019

    Scott venedam

    Scott venedam Member

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2018
    Messages:
    16
    Likes Received:
    2
    Gender:
    Male
    So just wondering what the odds are for this strategy. It’s basic. It’s 15$ don’t pass then 1$ on 61 52 43. So whatever the point is you’re playing 18 to win 15. I don’t know how to do all the odds for this but I do it all the time and for the most part it’s good.. cheers
     
    #1
    yacraps likes this.
  2. KokomoJoe4, Dec 12, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2013
    Messages:
    6,013
    Likes Received:
    5,131
    While it is true that seven is always the most likely dice outcome, expectation is 16.7% of the time. You're better off just playing the Don't and forgetting about the hedge/hops.

    If you ask me, one of the best plays in the game is 1 or 2 or 3 Don'ts.

    Once through the come out, you are favorite to win even money.

    To offset the 20 or so per cent immediate losers you get going out on the DP/DC, always parlay your Come out craps winner with the thought of turning your $x line bet into $4x.
     
    #2
    yacraps likes this.
  3. TDVegas, Dec 12, 2019

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    18,018
    Likes Received:
    12,439
    A couple 11 come out winners will do some damage to the hedge.
     
    #3
  4. The Midnight Skulker, Dec 12, 2019

    The Midnight Skulker

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2010
    Messages:
    4,131
    Likes Received:
    4,469
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Idaho, USA
    Whipped out a quickie spreadsheet and came up with an expected loss of $0.52/decision. I admit I took a shortcut and used a published 40.6% overall chance of the dice passing if there is no decision on the comeout regardless of what point is established. What I think you may be overlooking is that you do not break even on a comeout seven; you win $15 but you lose $2 on the other hoppers. Similarly you net only $12 when a point misses because you lost the hoppers. Finally, a comeout 12 is an immediate $3 loser.
     
    #4
  5. von duck, Dec 12, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2017
    Messages:
    11,720
    Likes Received:
    2,804
    Gender:
    Male
    Man, it's a lot easier than that.
    $3 hop 12 for 36 comeouts (normalized) = $108 bet. Yielding 6 hits at $16 return each = $96 returned on this portion of the bet.
    $15 don't, for 36 come-outs = $540 bet at -1.36% loss, so $532.49 returned on this bet. Total loss $19.51, for 36 come-outs. 19.51/36 =.
    $.5416 per hand. Overall loss 19.51/648 = 3.01%. Not very good. :cool: But not awful either. :)
     
    #5
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2019
  6. basicstrategy777, Dec 13, 2019

    basicstrategy777

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2010
    Messages:
    10,073
    Likes Received:
    9,680
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    CT.
    You won't need that hedge if you have a DC bet out there on a number to cover your DP line bet.

    777
     
    #6
    yacraps and Mssthis1 like this.
  7. Mssthis1, Dec 13, 2019

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2016
    Messages:
    3,278
    Likes Received:
    5,219
    If it was a bubble game and I had $10 on the DP I'd lay every box number for $3 ea on comeout rolls if I wanted to hedge. Comeout seven and the lays win $11.38. Horn numbers are a push on the lays while hoppers go bye bye. Box number and you lose $3 same as the hoppers.

    This reduces the HA on the hedges from 11% down to a little over 3%.

    If you were green chipping the DP you can do the same thing on the tables and lay every number for $30 on comeouts. Try to find a vig after game.

    PS: The dealers love it but it may take some crews a little time to get up to speed. First time I did this at one of the local casinos it was a major clusterfluck and the pit had to get involved to come up with what to charge for vig. Some places my also insist you bet $40 on the 4/10 but I haven't ran into one of those yet since you're chumping yourself a little on the vig.

    FYI: If you try this on a bubble you have to drag each individual lay bet off with your finger when you decide to take them down. If you hit the "cancel all" button it will take the DP down too since it isn't a contract bet.
     
    #7
    Last edited: Dec 13, 2019
    yacraps and TDVegas like this.
  8. von duck, Dec 13, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2017
    Messages:
    11,720
    Likes Received:
    2,804
    Gender:
    Male
    Yeah it'll take down the don't, and you can expect one hell of lot of repeaters if you're playing this, and you're at the bubble alone. :D
     
    #8
  9. Mssthis1, Dec 13, 2019

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2016
    Messages:
    3,278
    Likes Received:
    5,219
    Place or buy the number after it's established if you feel that way. No way to lose then. Duh.
     
    #9
    yacraps likes this.
  10. von duck, Dec 13, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2017
    Messages:
    11,720
    Likes Received:
    2,804
    Gender:
    Male
    This move would not make much money, and, it would summon the, much dreaded, "11 up your ass" come-out streak. :D
     
    #10
  11. yacraps, Dec 18, 2019

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2011
    Messages:
    4,437
    Likes Received:
    4,786
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    san diego
    ...I would rather put a dollar on the 12
     
    #11
  12. bonetek, Dec 19, 2019

    bonetek

    bonetek Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2017
    Messages:
    36
    Likes Received:
    23
    Gender:
    Male
    Hedging your DP with a hop 7/11 bet is a good one, IMO, when you go to a table
    and you only have $100 to play with and the minimum bet is 10 or 15.

    While you may lose more in the long run and is mathematically a poor bet,
    this hedge can keep you in the game far longer than your bankroll would
    normally allow when the current short-term pattern has the 7/11 appearing on the
    comeout more than 16%. $100 will disappear in no time if you don't hedge.

    I like when it keeps me in the game past the comeout and then, if I sense a
    really cold table, single odds on my DP can more than compensate for the hedge
    losses.
     
    #12
    yacraps likes this.
  13. TDVegas, Dec 19, 2019

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    18,018
    Likes Received:
    12,439
    With a $100 bankroll and a $15 table.....I would find a bubble craps machine.

    7 hop is 16.7% house edge. That’s slots. Probably worse.

    if it’s a $10 table....with $100 bankroll. Bite the bullet. Just make a DP bet and maybe an additional dc bet. If dc gets knocked off....hope for a 7 and live another hand.
     
    #13
    yacraps likes this.
  14. von duck, Dec 19, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2017
    Messages:
    11,720
    Likes Received:
    2,804
    Gender:
    Male
    First you say, that "hedging" is bad, then you say to "hedge" the houses side of the dp for one roll, by placing a dc bet? :confused: Then you tell him slots have a prohibitive H/E, so go find a bubble craps "SLOT MACHINE". Why would you intentionally give (yourself), I mean "bonetec" bad advice? :cool:
    Hey bonetec, if all you have is $100, and you want some action, play a Doey/Don't with $1 hop 12. When you get on a point, lay $6 odds, and if the shooter "doesn't " collect 3, 4, or 5 dollars. You should be able to "hang" for a couple hours, and if you can catch a string if come out craps,(12s) you might just make a few bucks. :) If on the other hand, your in a hurry to "drop" the $100, so you can get the hell out of there, TDs suggestions, should do the trick. :D
     
    #14
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2019
  15. Phil N, Dec 26, 2019

    Phil N

    Phil N Member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2019
    Messages:
    1
    Likes Received:
    1
    Gender:
    Male
    If you only play $15 on the don'ts then I just leave it alone no hedge. I usually play $75 don't pass, $15 7 hop & $10 Yo & 12.
     
    #15
    yacraps likes this.
  16. von duck, Dec 26, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2017
    Messages:
    11,720
    Likes Received:
    2,804
    Gender:
    Male
    OK, let's "run" the numbers on these bets, for 36 "normalized come-outs.
    $75 don't, times 36, = $2700 times .9864 = $2663.28 = loss of $36.72
    $10 yo X 36 = $360, with two winners returning $320 = loss of $40
    $10 boxcarsX 36 = $360, with 1 winner returning $310 = loss of $50
    So, total of $3420.00 bet losing a total of $126.72. Or about 3.71%
    In conclusion, your "hedge" doubled the % loss and increased the total amount bet, over the line bet alone. This play "SUX", but I'm sure there are times when it will fare better than a line bet alone. On average though, it does much worse. :cool:
     
    #16
    yacraps likes this.
  17. The Midnight Skulker, Dec 27, 2019

    The Midnight Skulker

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2010
    Messages:
    4,131
    Likes Received:
    4,469
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Idaho, USA
    Did you forget about the Skinny hoppers? I will let you run the numbers if so, but with just about half again as much on props as the line my guess is your 3.71% HA is low. If you're will to pay in the neighborhood of a nickel per line decision it's a way to dampen variance, but that's a little too steep for my tastes.
     
    #17
    yacraps likes this.
  18. von duck, Dec 27, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2017
    Messages:
    11,720
    Likes Received:
    2,804
    Gender:
    Male
    I don't know what a "skinny hopper" is, but I showed the math, so if there is an error, please correct it, I won't be offended. :cool:
     
    #18
  19. The Midnight Skulker, Dec 27, 2019

    The Midnight Skulker

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2010
    Messages:
    4,131
    Likes Received:
    4,469
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Idaho, USA
    Skinny (capitalized) is short for Skinny Dugan, a cartoon character from the 40's (or possibly before). (I have tried several times to find an image and have always come up empty, so I have approximated the one I remember, which was only an outline without color filled in.) SkinnyDugan.jpg
    Well, if you insist.
    1. A quick check shows that for each line decision $75 (DP) + $15 (hop 7s @ $5/each) + $20 (ET) = $110 action/comeout.
    2. $110 * 36 comeout rolls = $3960 total action per set of 36 theoretically distributed line decisions.
    3. You came up with $3420, a difference of $540 = $15 (hop 7s @ $5/each) * 36, hence my suspicion that you forgot the Skinny hoppers.
    4. Over 36 rolls those bets will win 6 times, returning $75 = $450 for a loss of $90.
    5. Add that to the $126.72 total loss you got for the other bets and the grand total loss is $216.72 ...
    6. ... on $3960 total action for a HA of a shade under 5.5%, or $6.02/decision.
     
    #19
    yacraps and HornHiYo like this.
  20. von duck, Dec 28, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2017
    Messages:
    11,720
    Likes Received:
    2,804
    Gender:
    Male
    Yes, I left out the hop 7s. I don't date back to the 40's, and never have heard of "Skinny Dugan. Is he any relation to Andrew Dugan, cause there is a pit guy at Cherokee, that is a "dead-ringer" for Andrew Dugan. :cool: From your drawing, "Skinny" appears to be Asian.
     
    #20
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2019