Due theory, influence and math

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by KokomoJoe4, Jan 29, 2015.

  1. KokomoJoe4, Jan 29, 2015

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Some recent posts have had me thinking about this.

    Unless divine or psychic, there is no way of knowing the next result.

    There is the fact that every toss of the dice is a one in thirty-six outcome result. (in three dimensions, there are 576 possible outcome results, but that is another matter).

    The 1 in 36 never changes. However, there is more than one way to roll all numbers, except for a few. When all possible outcomes are considered, we arrive at the basis of the game. The seven shows 1 in 6 times, the twelve 1 in 36.

    Class, IF the ten hasn't shown in twenty rolls, isn't it overdue? No answers the pointy-headed fellow wearing coke-bottle glasses and a protractor - every roll is a 1 in 36 affair.
    Yes answers the classmate who sponsors football polls on Fridays - it is expected every 1 in 12 and the results are expected for a good reason.

    Then there is the argument that if a shooter can eliminate just one seven from his results, he will have an even game with the house. Sure math can be made to show this, but can it be done? Sometimes yes. Any skill involved with this?
     
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  2. TDVegas, Jan 29, 2015

    TDVegas

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    The great thing about craps is that while the mathematical computations can be complex...the actual make up of the game can't be any simpler. For hundreds of years people have been looking for the holy grail flaw in the game to try and exploit it. To this day, it hasn't happened. Simple but effective. Even trying to exploit short term variance has proven futile. If I could exploit something in the game, you would find me exploring each and every casino in town until my belly was full. I suspect 100% the same would apply to the people here who love this game. Anything that moves beyond 2 dice, 36 results, hit the wall....is someone trying to make it seem more complex to justify some scheme.
     
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  3. Onautopilot, Jan 29, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    Trying to find a "hiccup" in random chance has been sought after since a caveman started scattering bones around looking for a sign. There may be one, Porrando's paradox (sp) seemed to be one, but I don't think anyone has figured out how to apply that to casino games yet. If someone does find that hiccup, they will not tell you about it! :) If someone thinks that DI can accomplish it, so be it, I will not enter into any discussion with anyone that tries to defend DI with out any replicable evidence to prove it. Having said all this, I am still a "seeker". :)
     
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  4. TDVegas, Jan 29, 2015

    TDVegas

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    Likely, we all are. I guess there is enjoyment in the "chase":D
     
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  5. superrick, Jan 29, 2015

    superrick

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    There is nothing due in the game of craps. There is no way you can control the dice. All you have to do is look at the slow-motion videos I've posted to see what really happens when the dice hit the tables.

    Numbers disappear all the time when your at the tables, you never know when they are coming back, at some point they will return, it could be the next roll of the dice or hours from now. I've seen guys that will say the nine has been missing for 30 rolls of the dice and then lay it. Talk about bad luck, the very next number will be a nine!

    The math of the game tells you what should happen over 10,000 rolls of the dice. It is for the casinos to figure out the Vig they can charge you and still make money on the game of bank craps. It does not tell you what the variance will be when you are playing. Therefor the math of the game is about useless to you the player. The should have, would have but didn't factor is always there on every roll of the dice.

    The worst bets on the table could be the best bet for you to make because the shooter is rolling those numbers. I don't know how many times I will hear someone telling their buddy that look at that fool he is betting on the 12, that is just a sucker bet. The guy that is running his mouth is losing by betting on the 6's and 8's and taking full odds on his pass-line bets.

    The guy that is betting the 12 is just killing the table, because he is betting what is being rolled. It all comes down to one thing what ever number you have your chips on has to be rolled for you to win. Do I bet on the 12, hell no, but if I see something happening that the math of the game says shouldn't be happening I will bet it.

    I had a guy in from out-of-town, we were at Green Valley Ranch, I noticed that the 12 was being rolled by every shooter a bunch of times. So I got 30 white chips just to see what would happen if I bet it on every roll of the dice, as a type of experiment. The plan was to quit no matter what happened when I ran out of the white chips. Any chips that I won was going in the back rack and the ones I was playing with went in the front rack.

    When my little experiment was over with in 30 rolls of the dice I had over $90 in profit, in the back rack. Would I bet the 12 on every roll of the dice today, hell no! The math of the game tells me that it should be a bad bet! The key words are should be, they are not will be!

    I see more players losing money betting on the 6's and 8's then any other box numbers. Now you're all going to say how can that be, it's called variance! Nothing is written in stone, when your on the craps tables, nothing is due, there are no magic bullets that you can get that will guarantee you a win when you are playing.

    The best looking shot I ever made turned out to be a seven-out! If you are not betting on what is being rolled it very simple, you are going to lose. Just because every book out there says the best bets on the table are the 6's and 8's if you are placing box numbers, doesn't mean that you are going to win by playing those two numbers.

    The should have, would have but didn't factor is what kills the craps players. I always ask the math guys how they did at playing craps when they were betting on what they tell everybody is the best bets on the table. That is the pass-line and taking those so-called free odds. They will tell you that by betting the pass-line and taking full free odds, you have the best bet you can get on a craps table, funny when I ask how they did, they lost by doing so! Then they don't want to talk about what just happened to them!

    Everybody out there should know how they classified bank craps. It's a game of chance in every book that I have read on casino management! Your chance of winning can go either way. You could walk up to the table when everybody on the do side is winning, or you could be betting on the do side and everybody is losing that is betting the do side. Sometime the power of observation is the best thing you have when playing craps. Bet what you see happening, not what should happen by the math of the game.

    If you really what a 100% guarantee on the game of craps, don't play save your money and you will always be a winner!
     
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  6. Onautopilot, Jan 29, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    When a mathematician says, "best bet" they are usually talking about EV....a before the event thing. And before the event, they are generally right. Looking at it after the event, is statistics. Neither one of these will be of any value predicting what will actually happen once the dice are in the air. Variance swamps EV in almost every instance....it's a craps shoot! :)
     
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  7. basicstrategy777, Jan 29, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    Casino's make their money because they know the 7 is Due.....they would make money if they had no house edge. People are stupid...people are underfunded....people are unlucky....people have no discipline. To walk out of a casino ahead is as if you walked thru a lions den with a slab of meat under each arm, totally untouched.

    777
     
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  8. Liman

    Liman Member

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  9. goatcabin, Jan 29, 2015

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    Wording like this makes people think there is some huge set of 11 numbers (2-12) in the sky, and each roll of the dice pulls one out, with no replacement, like dealing from a deck of billions of cards. The probability of a seven is 1/6, of a 12 1/36. It's, by far, not the same thing.

    Here again, "every 1 in 12" is not expected by any means. Nor at the end of the Universe should you expect the total number of 12's to be 1/36 of the total number of rolls. This is a sad but very common misconception.

    I'm sure I've used this quote before, maybe over on the Wizard's site, but, once more:
    "The law of large numbers has frequently been cited as the guarantor of an eventual head-tail balance. Actually, in colloquial form the law proclaims that the difference between the number of heads and the number of tails thrown may be expected to increase indefinitely as the number of trials increases, although by decreasing proportions. Its operating principle is "inundation" rather than "compensation." Richard Epstein, "The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic"

    Nothing is "due" except your next house payment! >:)
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
     
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  10. KokomoJoe4, Jan 29, 2015

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    because of variance, OF COURSE a session or many sessions is too short a time for the "expected" proportion of results to show as "expected". In this sense, the argument against "due" is accurate.

    However, the expectations are as stated because that's what the construction of the dice and randomness dictate. On this basis, there is absolutely reason to suspect a number is due. This is not guaranteed, just expected.
     
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  11. Dogalot, Jan 29, 2015

    Dogalot

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    Coin flip.... Gotta rethink...
     
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  12. goatcabin, Jan 29, 2015

    goatcabin

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    You haven't understood that quote at all, have you?
     
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  13. KokomoJoe4, Jan 29, 2015

    KokomoJoe4

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    Understandings (or lack thereof) aside, my only point is that we know what to expect, and expect it for good reason, while at the same time allowing entropy to operate.
     
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  14. basicstrategy777, Jan 30, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    Who in their right mind says nothing is due. 'Your ' time is coming....everything is due...including the 7.

    Inundation has nothing to due with it. Probability says 1 in 6.....1 in 6 does not exist unless there is compensation.

    The spread exists but the ratio holds. No compensation...no ratio.

    And a bumble bee can fly...we just don't know when, but he will.



    777
     
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  15. Morgue, Jan 30, 2015

    Morgue

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    After finishing playing craps I frequently go for a wander and observe other casino games.

    On my last visit I stopped at a roulette table. There was a group of guys playing the even money bets based on past results. One, after losing his (small) bankroll betting 1-18 because it hadn't rolled for 7 times, reached into his wallet pulled out his last $50 and plonked it all on 1-18 exclaiming "it HAS to come this spin". ...it did not.

    The funny thing about due theory is that there are three distinct viewpoints about it.
    1) X hasn't appeared for a long time, it's DUE, I better put money on it.
    2) X keeps appearing, it's HOT, I better put money on it.
    3) Past results mean nothing and don't affect the next roll/spin.

    From my observations roulette players are most susceptible to due theory. Baccarat players are the opposite and see "streaks" and bet with them.

    Interesting.
     
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  16. basicstrategy777, Jan 30, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    Due verses streaks drives me a little crazy at the table.

    I will bet with the streak but I know that 7 is coming......the longer the roll goes the more the electrons in my brain are pulling me both ways. The guy on my left shoulder says " send it in"...the guy on my right shoulder says, "you've done great, you've got a ton on the felt, reel it in, you know that 7 is coming, don't be a pig." That greed verses fear of loss thing gets stronger and stronger and eventually I yield and will take my bets off/down....and start rebuilding again as the roll continues.

    I have won thousands at the tables but could have won much more if I just let it fly.

    Sometimes, I think I just need to say 'screw it' .

    777
     
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  17. Morgue, Jan 30, 2015

    Morgue

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    A player at the table I was talking to was having a terrible night and got it into his head that he was going to parlay his bets to $1000 and then take them all down.

    He was rolling well and after making his point and counting all his bets he had an estimated $800-$850 on the felt. I strongly suggested at this point it was time to scale WAY back. He rolled a point of 10 and took back everything he had on his buy bet of it. He just wanted one more hit. It never came...

    Question is:
    Did I offer sound advice or was it entirely my fault for jinxing him. Hmmmm
     
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  18. Dogalot, Jan 30, 2015

    Dogalot

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    There was a trip that I stepped up to see this player had been on this particular roll had built it up to $5K on each number (confirmed, yes $30,000) - after the inevitable, colored up -- $81,000. I wish I had been able to see the beginning stages, and how he did it...
     
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  19. goatcabin, Jan 30, 2015

    goatcabin

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    Totally wrong, and recognized as a fallacy for well over 100 years. Here's what Wiki has to say about it:
    "
    The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen less frequently in the future, or that if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e. independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. This fallacy can arise in many practical situations although it is most strongly associated with gambling where such mistakes are common among players.

    Gambler's fallacy arises out of a belief in a "law of small numbers", or the erroneous belief that small samples must be representative of the larger population.
    "

    BTW, I love your "inundation has nothing to DUE with it". >:)
     
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  20. Bases loaded, Jan 30, 2015

    Bases loaded

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    The reason I play to always 'load the bases' is because I dabbled with 3 point mollies and then watched the other 3 numbers repeat, repeat, repeat. Have a COME bet on every roll, take full odds, load the bases and then collect your profits.
     
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