Due theory, influence and math

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by KokomoJoe4, Jan 29, 2015.

  1. James Hall, Mar 4, 2019

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    #261
  2. James Hall, Mar 4, 2019

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    I have had a PSO or two.
     
    #262
  3. cmonhard8, Mar 4, 2019

    cmonhard8

    cmonhard8 Member

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    Craps Survival Table for 1 to 50 Rolls
    ROLL
    NUMBER
    PROBABILITY
    SEVEN-OUT
    PROBABILITY
    SURVIVAL

    1 0.00000000 1.00000000
    2 0.11111111 0.88888889
    3 0.11676955 0.77211934
    4 0.10476680 0.66735254
    5 0.09122363 0.57612891
    6 0.07891804 0.49721087
    7 0.06816676 0.42904411
    8 0.05885276 0.37019135
    9 0.05080065 0.31939070
    10 0.04384414 0.27554656
    11 0.03783614 0.23771043
    12 0.03264850 0.20506193
    13 0.02817002 0.17689190
    14 0.02430433 0.15258757
    15 0.02096801 0.13161956
    16 0.01808886 0.11353070
    17 0.01560445 0.09792625
    18 0.01346084 0.08446541
    19 0.01161138 0.07285403
    20 0.01001580 0.06283823
    21 0.00863931 0.05419892
    22 0.00745187 0.04674705
    23 0.00642755 0.04031950
    24 0.00554396 0.03477554
    25 0.00478180 0.02999374
    26 0.00412437 0.02586937
    27 0.00355731 0.02231206
    28 0.00306819 0.01924387
    29 0.00264632 0.01659755
    30 0.00228244 0.01431511
    31 0.00196858 0.01234653
    32 0.00169788 0.01064864
    33 0.00146440 0.00918424
    34 0.00126303 0.00792121
    35 0.00108934 0.00683187
    36 0.00093954 0.00589234
    37 0.00081033 0.00508201
    38 0.00069890 0.00438311
    39 0.00060278 0.00378033
    40 0.00051989 0.00326044
    41 0.00044839 0.00281205
    42 0.00038673 0.00242532
    43 0.00033354 0.00209178
    44 0.00028767 0.00180411
    45 0.00024811 0.00155600
    46 0.00021399 0.00134201
    47 0.00018456 0.00115745
    48 0.00015918 0.00099827
    49 0.00013729 0.00086098
    50 0.00011841 0.00074257

    This was from Wizard of odds....This is a cool way of understand why long rolls TEND to not happen, but also why they can---because there is STILL a mathematical possibility, regardless of how many rolls...
     
    #263
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2019
  4. James Hall, Mar 4, 2019

    James Hall

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    That WAS good
     
    #264
  5. von duck, Mar 4, 2019

    von duck

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  6. von duck, Mar 4, 2019

    von duck

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    All of those decimals in post 264 would be much easier to "grasp" if you would convert them to their fractional equivalent i.e. 0.11111111= 1chance in 9, etc. you can arrive at the figure by dividing the decimal into 1. FredP will be along in a minute to " not understand". :cool:
     
    #266
  7. KokomoJoe4, Mar 4, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

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    I suspect that possibly more is to come..........
     
    #267
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  8. James Hall, Mar 4, 2019

    James Hall

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    He does write some good stuff
     
    #268
  9. TDVegas, Mar 4, 2019

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    Been playing long enough to see some pretty crazy outcomes. My longest roll is 70+. My shortest is 2;). There are a lot of possibilities....the math doesn't say anything is impossible.

    We've all been there. Seen some sequencing where the cheering is wild...and have also seen the worst of the worst....6-7-8-7-9-7-4-7-5-7.

    Bubble was cold.....then hot.....then lukewarm. Same shit happens on the tables. No one is a magician, IMO. They will all be subjected to great rolls...and shit rolls. Since I sometimes play pass line/odds with 2 come bets or passline/odds and place the 6 and 8....

    It runs cold.....and runs hot.

    Anyone telling me different...I'm not so sure how much they are around the craps table.

    Wonderful game...it can beat the shit out of dark side and right side on the same sequence. I gotta buy a casino.

    From today....

    image.jpeg
     
    #269
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2019
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  10. KokomoJoe4, Mar 4, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    The highlighted statement above quite obviously identifies a player who shoots much better than what is seen from most of us. Now I do not know if this is due to chance, skill, variability, fate.......something else, or a combination of things.

    There is no question that some shoot better than others, and Mssthis 1 is one of those guys.

    I have no problem calling this skill, but I am pretty sure that Mssthis1 will tell us that he also has some shoots that do not go nearly as well.

    The following thoughts are not directed at questioning the shooting skill of Mssthis1, rather just something to think about:

    Considering that everyone shows good and bad results, it should be easy to see that (1) a decent number of great shoots can and do happen for the same shooter (2) there is a lot of variability when comparing a large number of performances by the same person, and (3) it is very difficult to see results that average out to be better than expected based on the player- negative math of the game. Actually, unless the results of every roll made are known and tabulated, accurate calculation of eV are not possible.

    IF such great results are due entirely to skill, shouldn't it be possible to perfect things to if not good results all of the time, much or most of the time? Does anyone claim to do this well? If so claimed, are the claims true?
     
    #270
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  11. KokomoJoe4, Mar 4, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

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    I have never counted rolls, but a guess is that my best ever might have reached 40 something. 70 is obviously so-called DI-ish TDV!
     
    #271
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  12. TDVegas, Mar 4, 2019

    TDVegas

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    A couple weeks ago. Been on the bubble for about ~6 years now...logged a LOT of sessions. 18 winners in that 70+ roll. That's a once every few years roll if you're lucky.

    Death to the dark side Marty on that one....

    Couldn't imagine.

    I'd be more than happy with two of your 40 somethings over my one 70.;)
     
    #272
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  13. Mssthis1, Mar 4, 2019

    Mssthis1

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    It's mostly table time koko. I put in more table time than most and I always seek out empty tables when possible.

    Last 2 years i have drifted more to bubble play because I feel they're easier to beat or at least hold your own for various reasons.
     
    #273
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  14. James Hall, Mar 4, 2019

    James Hall

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    $533 potential on the 8 alone.
     
    #274
  15. James Hall, Mar 4, 2019

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    Let's not get tracked into comparing outcomes of sessions
    on the machine to sessions on the table , those are two different games.
     
    #275