Esoteric betting strategy

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by RPrinceton, Jul 9, 2019.

  1. RPrinceton, Jul 9, 2019

    RPrinceton

    RPrinceton Member

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    Hello,
    I spent the 4th of July Holiday in Las Vegas.
    During the course of my numerous Craps sessions I observed
    an interesting method of play that I've never seen before.
    It appears to be an involved hedge method.
    I can describe the following bets I saw.
    A Pass Line bet. A Dont Pass bet. Once the point was
    established then a Dont Come bet was made and a Come bet
    was also made. The Dont Pass and Come bets continued. So far many offsetting bets.
    This is where it became interesting. The individual would put odds on certain
    sides of the dice and many times would pull the odds down and move them
    to the opposite side and perhaps even on a different number. I also noticed
    he had a small batch of chips on the rail that appeared to be used to
    track a count or who knows what. Always looking for a better way to
    play the game I approached him on the strategy. He was very hesitant
    to share any information and ultimately bragged that it was a complicated
    system that reduced the house edge substantially. I could follow the "hedging"
    portion but could not detect the pattern with regard to the switching of the odds. He
    would also at times take down the odds on the Dont Pass bet. I looked thru
    You Tube but could not find any information on this betting strategy. He
    bought in for $4K and left with $5K, i.e., up $1000. He was making substantial bets
    minimum $25 on each bet with $100-$300 odds. I do not think he came up with this system
    on his own based on his demeanor. The point is I think it is out there and I would
    like to program it in my Craps simulator.
    Based on my sketchy details, sorry, has anyone heard of this strategy?
    Thank you in advance.
    RPrinceton
     
    #1
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  2. HornHighBLEVE, Jul 9, 2019

    HornHighBLEVE

    HornHighBLEVE Member

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    No but perhaps someone here has.

    I use to play a system so complicated that it was written down on an index card...cause I couldn't remember it. It's sole purpose was to be random. At the time I was jealous of other players winning big on Imo...were dumb bets. One time the box wanted to see the card.

    I passed on it after awhile mostly cause it took my enjoyment of the gambling experience away...but there was NO hedge play involved.

    I'm fond of systems, I can see the attraction to them, I hope to you can figure this one out to your advantage.
     
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  3. bahdbwoy, Jul 9, 2019

    bahdbwoy

    bahdbwoy Member

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    nothing you do can reduce the house's advantage.

    natural variance will occur on the "free" odds, meanwhile he will die slowly via boxcars and the ultimately chase those loses.
     
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  4. von duck, Jul 9, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    This statement is complete bullshit. It is quit easy to reduce the house advantage to zero. And recommended. :cool:
     
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  5. bahdbwoy, Jul 9, 2019

    bahdbwoy

    bahdbwoy Member

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    $5 dc and simultaneous $5 come..
    - you cannot win on the next roll
    - you can lose $5 on the next roll

    how do you get rid of that?
     
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  6. lone irish digit, Jul 9, 2019

    lone irish digit

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    This is Barney

    Sounds like personage was the LID who is still in the Vegas. Wad that personage wearing Skunkhat? He occasionally uses such a headging/odd strategy after tying one on night before. When he has shakes and feels nauseous he uses such strategy to get to point where he is only risking the odd bet and contingent on where he feels the gas is in his abdomen, will move odd bets accordingly. In crap circles this strategy is commenly known as the runny craps hedge.
     
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  7. Chip Magnet, Jul 9, 2019

    Chip Magnet

    Chip Magnet Member

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    Betting both sides and moving his odds bets from one number to the next didn’t reduce the HE. Hedging always increases the HE. The only way to reduce the HE is to increase the odds multiple.

    Betting both sides at the same time, nearly doubles the HE versus betting one side only. Any loss on the Don’t side is always offset by a corresponding win on the Do side. Any loss on the Do side is offset by a corresponding win on the Don’t side. Except when the 12 rolls for a loss for the Do side, and a Push for the Don’t side. This occurs 1 in 36 rolls for a 1/36 = 2.77% HE.

    It’s his own system. Bet both sides, and either lay or take odds depending on the number rolled, or the total number of rolls. Possibly something like after six rolls, or two numbers repeat, down with the lay odds on the 6 or the 8, and take them instead.

    He got lucky.
     
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  8. von duck, Jul 9, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    By never making any bets to begin with. Zero house edge. :cool:
     
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  9. von duck, Jul 9, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    You are wrong, the house edge on the doey/don't is 1.39 %, not 2.77%. While you do lose 1bet in 36 come outs, you had placed 72 bets during those same come outs. The house edge, is the average between the Do, and the don't. It is not the house edge which doubles, it is your action which doubles. :cool: TD.
     
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  10. TDVegas, Jul 9, 2019

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    No. It does not reduce house edge. The house edge on the pass line bet is always 1.41%. The HE on the odds is always 0. Two separate bets and each has their own expectation.

    The odds bet doesn't improve anything. The EV remains the same.

    $100 pass line bet alone.....expected loss is $1.41

    $100 pass line bet with $100 odds....expected loss is $1.41

    Now, once volatility enters the picture, different things can happen. Might win more or lose more, depending how the dice play out.

    Expectation though...remains equal.
     
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  11. von duck, Jul 9, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    No! You are completely wrong. In the example with the odds bet, you now have $200 in action, with an expected loss of $1.41. You have reduced your expected percentage loss by 1/2. :confused: This is pretty simple stuff man. It should be easy to see. Any craps book, explaines how the greater the odds you take, the smaller the house edge, any craps book. :cool:
     
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  12. TDVegas, Jul 9, 2019

    TDVegas

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    I see you are buying books by John Patrick.:eek:My sympathies.
     
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    Last edited: Jul 9, 2019
  13. von duck, Jul 9, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    I've never read any book by that Patrick guy. The fact is, that you have the facts wrong. You are NOT a math guy, plain and simple. It should be pretty obvious that the $200 bet, with an expected loss of $1.41, has a lower H/A, than the $100 bet with an expected loss of $1.41. If the other math guys weren't such "suck-asses", they would chime in and tell you, that you were wrong. Do you really think they are doing you any favors, by NOT bringing your error, to your attention? :cool:
     
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  14. James Hall, Jul 9, 2019

    James Hall

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    How many have you bought. Sounds like you know what's in them
    and that goes against your , "PRIME DIRECTIVE" "Do not bother to learn ,
    the math says you are going to lose"
     
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  15. The Midnight Skulker, Jul 9, 2019

    The Midnight Skulker

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    You are correct: expectation remains constant. However, von duck is also correct: HA goes down, but in so doing creates an illusion that you are expected to lose less when in fact you are expected to lose the same amount.



    Correct again, and it creates the same illusion for the same reason as above with the HA on flat w/odds.



    I was not going to give you a chance to prolong this Dr. Science "I know more than you do" routine, but I can't resist mentioning The Oddsman's Bet as a way to reduce the house advantage to zero.

    [heavy sigh] Oh well. Having broken my Oath of Silence I might as well make a complete mess of it. Another technique, which actually reverses the HA, is to buy another player's established Don't bet that he/she is about to take down. A few dark siders refuse action behind 6 and 8; when you find such a one strike a deal with him/her. For example, say the other player is betting $10 DP/DC and is about to wave off action. Offer to buy the bet from him/her, which would make you a 6:5 favorite to win even money.



    As von duck noted, betting both lines simultaneously is known as the Doey/Don't method, but is typically used by dark siders to hedge their 2:1 disadvantage on the comeout roll. That the player you observed was going both ways (on different numbers) and apparently using chips as an abacus to keep track of something suggests he was extending the hedge philosophy by juggling his odds so he could come out ahead so long as one of his front side numbers made, and maybe also at least break even so long as none of his back side numbers made. IOW some kind of Super Ricochet. Sounds like a grind but workable if your brain and bankroll are up to it.
     
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  16. TDVegas, Jul 9, 2019

    TDVegas

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    Thanks, M.

    I probably should have worded it differently, but the end result is an expectation to lose the same amount either way.
     
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  17. von duck, Jul 9, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    It's NOT an illusion that the H/A is reduced by increasing the amount played on the odds. TD was completely F"king wrong, and you don't have the balls to say it, period! You thought long and hard to find some way to tip-toe around the issue. TD is very weak on math, that is just the way it is, and that is NOT his only shortcoming. :cool:
     
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  18. von duck, Jul 9, 2019

    von duck

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    You probably should have stayed out of any discussion involving math. :cool:
     
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  19. TDVegas, Jul 9, 2019

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    I’ll remember that when you discuss bubble craps. :cool:
     
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  20. von duck, Jul 10, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    There is nothing to discuss about "bubble craps". If it is Aruze, it's fixed, and I think most players can see it for themselves. It's pretty obvious. I'm not sure what's "Legal" and what's not, but the game is not completely random, not even close. :confused:
    As far as the standard dice game, I don't know. I do not believe the dice are "shaved", or "weighted", but I've seen anomalies in Biloxi and elsewhere, that lead me to believe, that something is amiss. I don't know what might be possible. :cool:
     
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