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Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by RPrinceton, Jul 9, 2019.
Next time you're at a table, ask the dealer or the pit how they rate a doey/don't bettor.
The two separate players are rated separately, because their bets are at risk on every roll. A single player neutralizing his bets on all but one in 36 rolls, with a doey/don’t will not get rated, or they will be rated for the PL bet if the house is generous. The house isn’t stupid.
Another thing. No combination of bets can combine for a lower HE, than the lowest HE of a bet in the combination. The PL and DP cannot combine for a lower HE than either the PL or the DP alone. The HE for the doey/don’t combination is not 1.33%.
Nobody said the H/E was 1.33. The number quoted was 1.38888....
The definition of H/E, is not based on how the house rates the bet. It's the percentage of the money bet, that you would expect to lose in the long run. If you think the "don't" is not a bet, try playing the doey without it, and see if the result is the same. A normalized round of the dice, playing the doey/don't requires you to place 72 bets, of which you figure to lose ONE.
1/72 = 1.388888.%, thats the H/E, by definition.
The 36 DP’s are a wash. Zero risk. Zero chance to win or lose any of them. They are not bets.
Why is it so hard to understand the fact that a bet is not a bet, when it is impossible to either win or lose it?
If you bet $1 million on the Steelers to beat the Packers, and bet another $1 million, the Steelers won’t beat the Packers, how much are you betting?
If you make a single $10 bet on the Steelers to beat the Packers, how much are you betting?
It’s not 1/72. It’s 1/36.
who really cares...
per bet made typically includes pushes
per bet resolved excludes pushes
so I will lose 1 time... and there is only 1 outcome if you disregard outcomes resulting in a push.
so 1/1 bet resolved = 100% ha... I bet $1 I lose a $1 every time that combined doey/dont is resolved without a push
I lose $1 every 72 bets made including offsetting / pushes ... .0138 ha
so after 72 decisions I lose .0138 of the money wagered..eg $1
Your assertion that the don't bet is a wash, is only correct, when the 12 shows. The dealer will make fist, and bump the table with it, beside your bet, indicating a push. For the other rolls, that result in a decision for this bet, you will observe, that the dealer will do one of two things. If the dealer takes your money, that means that you LOST the bet, or that the dealer just stole your bet. If it was the latter, you should in a very eloquent, and tactful way, bring this to the dealers attention. I suggest you say "WTF do you thing you're doing MF. If the dealer places an equal amount of money beside your bet, that means that you WON, the bet, or that the dealer just f'ked-up, and you should very quickly, and discreetly, "rack", the "bonus" bet. These bonus bets can be considered "comps" paid to the player, for putting up with, incompetent dealers. In any case, the don't bet is a bet, and is settled as such.
Who cares? YOU DO. What you say is true though. For all intents and purposes, this bet IS 100% against you. H/E is not always the whole story. The H/E in any game that involves Pushes, i.e. Blackjack, Baccarat, etc. is skewed somewhat, for the purpose of determining how you might fare. This is not a failure of the math, it is rather, the rest of the math. It's all in there.
What was the spread in that steelers game?
he he he all this yak about reducing house edge. HELOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO lowest house edge of any game is craps.
NOW go practice grip and toss until you build a muscle memory and if you are not comforatble at that table go to another table keep moving until you find that table your comfortable with.
45 years experince speaking
I find the more outrageous and complicated a strategy, the dumber it is in practice...that might just be me though