Field Bet Martingale..Math help

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by basicstrategy777, Jan 3, 2012.

  1. basicstrategy777, Jan 3, 2012

    basicstrategy777

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2010
    Messages:
    9,344
    Likes Received:
    8,596
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    CT.
    It's quiet here so let's see where this goes.

    I posted this on another board a long time ago and cannot find the response by crooked shot.

    The situation: I have a $ 3000 buy in. Minimum bet is $5. I start with a $5 bet in the field and double my bet after each loss.
    2 and 12 pays double ( nice if one pays triple ). I have enough money to make 10 bets. What is the chance I do not have 1 win in 10 consequtive tries ?

    I am thinking when I win the martingale I revert back to a $ 5 dollar bet I parlay the bet 3 times ,if I win, I go back to a $ 5 dollar bet.

    My win goal is $ 500. If you have enough information, can you give me an idea of my chance to reach this win goal .


    777
     
    #1

  2. idoc

    idoc Member

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2009
    Messages:
    323
    Likes Received:
    12
    Location:
    TN
    Sorry, I was never good at probability and statistics, but I would like to learn a strategy using the Field as the primary bet. Something other than the Iron Cross.
     
    #2
  3. Southern-Comfort, Jan 8, 2012

    Southern-Comfort

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2011
    Messages:
    850
    Likes Received:
    31
    sixes on top, all apairs with the axis on the 3/4, Let it two or three times (or if you're comfortably ahead already, ubntil you just can't stand it anymore)
    Pulled me out of a stinkhole more than once.
     
    #3
  4. kaysirtap, Jan 10, 2012

    kaysirtap

    kaysirtap Member

    Joined:
    Nov 2, 2011
    Messages:
    483
    Likes Received:
    22
    Apparently, I don't remember or never knew how to figure this out properly. I can provide the following information, but I'm not sure how to use the information to perform further calculations to give you the answer you seek.

    As discussed in PM, you would have to increase your bankroll to at least $5115 to sustain 10 consecutive Martinagale losses on the first throw, assuming an initial bet of $5. From what I understand of the details of the strategy, the following outcomes and their corresponding probabilities at the beginning of every sequence are as follows (a sequence has ended when the player wins three parlays in the field, has lost any of those parlays, or has won during the martingale progression):

    3.9% chance that you will win all three parlays in the field. If they all pay even money, you will win $75 (the amount of the wins will vary because of the 2 and 12, but the average payout is 1.125:1 when the 2 and 12 pay double, and 1.1875 when one of them pays triple).

    40.5% chance that you will lose $5 (This accounts for losing any one of the parlays. After this happens, I understand that you go back to betting $5, instead of starting a Martingale progression by betting $10).

    55.3% chance that you will win during the Maringale progression (this does not include a win on the first bet, because this is factored into the first two statistics given above). Again, it will be a net win of $5 if it pays even money when you hit, but obviously much more if it pays double or triple - particularly if this happens late in the progression.

    0.3% chance that you will lose 10 consecutive Martingale progressions in the Field, which will cost you $5115. (That means 3/1000, or roughly 1 in every 357 sequences)

    And now... I don't really know what to do with these numbers. 1/357 sequences sounds relatively safe on the surface, but you have to consider how many sequences will be required to obtain your win goal of $500. I hope I have helped at least a little.
     
    #4
  5. Greatest 7 Shooter in the World, Jan 10, 2012

    Greatest 7 Shooter in the World

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2011
    Messages:
    240
    Likes Received:
    2
    so betting $5 you want to win $500? So you plan to chance luck 100 rolls to loose over 5k? Now that's gambling.........
     
    #5
  6. basicstrategy777, Jan 11, 2012

    basicstrategy777

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2010
    Messages:
    9,344
    Likes Received:
    8,596
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    CT.
    Thax for the time and effort K.


    G7....it was slow during the holidays and I was just posing an idea to see what the numbers would look like.

    A win goal of 500 based on a 5000 buy in is 10% . there is 1 chance in 357....10 toss sequences....that I lose the whole 5000.

    If I hit a 2 or 12 late in the sequence I'm in fat city.

    I don't know if this is good or bad....I just thought I would throw it out there. Not making 1 field number in 10 tosses seems like a real long shot.

    We're just talkin'

    777
     
    #6
  7. kaysirtap, Jan 11, 2012

    kaysirtap

    kaysirtap Member

    Joined:
    Nov 2, 2011
    Messages:
    483
    Likes Received:
    22
    If you want some perspective on it, think about how long it takes you to see ten throws of the 2 or 12 (pick one, not both). The odds of making one of those is 1/36, so that's like saying 10/360... roughly ten times as likely as you losing 10 consecutive bets in the Field. So for every time you see the 2 or 12 thrown ten times (doesn't have to be consecutively, of course)... you could have seen your $5115 wiped out.

    EDIT: For some reason, I'm questioning this logic... but I'm pretty sure it's correct.
     
    #7
  8. DeMango, Jan 11, 2012

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2010
    Messages:
    5,536
    Likes Received:
    2,350
    Gender:
    Male
    Go west young man!

    Santa Ana Star in NM

    2 pays triple, 12 pays triple, that's right, zero disadvantage!

    Buys on the 4 and 10 are free, no vig!!

    How do they stay in business?
     
    #8
  9. basicstrategy777, Jan 11, 2012

    basicstrategy777

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2010
    Messages:
    9,344
    Likes Received:
    8,596
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    CT.
    D.....WOW....I'm impressed.

    777
     
    #9
  10. falcon, Jan 17, 2012

    falcon

    falcon Member

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2012
    Messages:
    420
    Likes Received:
    6
    I believe in the math or simple arithmetic associated with our game. The problem with the field bet and the simple math is that there are 16 ways to win and 20 ways to lose on any given roll of the dice. That creates, using simple math, a 44.4% chance of winning the bet on any giving roll of the dice, i.e., the house has a 55.6% edge over the player on each roll and those odds renew on every roll.

    The Martingale would require doubling ones bet PLUS X dollars. Example using a $15 press: $25 then $65 then $145 and so on.

    A much more practical and math friendly approach which actually provides a player edge on every roll of 61.1% is:

    hop the 7 for $3 (to start your Martingale) plus the field for $6.00 and double on every loss on both sides of the equation.

    This method gives the player 22 ways to win and only 14 ways to lose an 11.1% advantage over the house as regards winning and losing on any given roll of the dice. Doubling would look like this:

    $3 hop 7 + $6 field; $6 hop 7 + $12 field; $12 hop 7 + $24 field etc. Of course when you win a bet, the player goes back to the first level and starts again.

    Suppose you want to practice this strategy, just log on to a free craps web site (none of which have the hop bet bet available) and use the ANY 7 bet instead of the hop. The bet would be $5 Any 7 + $10 field and double from there.

    The down side is that one might get discouraged or even lose big time when the 5, 6, or 8 is thrown multiple times in a row.
    falcon
     
    #10
  11. DeMango, Jan 18, 2012

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2010
    Messages:
    5,536
    Likes Received:
    2,350
    Gender:
    Male
    Interesting bet series.
    By the way a Martingale is where you double your bet on a loss.
    A Grand Martingale is where you add $X to the bet after every loss. As per your first example.
     
    #11
  12. falcon, Jan 19, 2012

    falcon

    falcon Member

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2012
    Messages:
    420
    Likes Received:
    6
    DeMango: Thanks for your prompt reply. I know that you are aware that doubling even money bets such as the Field will not provide any profits unless one is lucky enough to hit a 2 or 12. Therefore, a regular Martingale will not work for such bets. The same would hold true for roulette's red/black or odd/even.

    I think it is appropriate to point out to our thread starter that with a $3,000 buy in and doubling of bets starting at $5 w/o any increasing in the bets other than the doubling of his losing field bet that after nine lost consecutive wagers, the player would be essentially busted. With less than a 50/50 chance of winning any given individual bet (actually 44.4%), it is likely, and I am sure that you as well as the thread starter have witnessed nine consecutive non-field numbers tossed multiple times. Therefore, it is my judgement that this gambit would fail more often than not.

    Using my hop 7 + field approach would also require the same nine consecutive rolls of a 5,6, or 8 in order to go bust, however, this is less likely to occur in that winning would occur 61.1% of the time. But by way of full disclosure, once there is a loss on any level of the progression, a second consecutive win at that level would be required in order to be at the break even starting point or a little profit. It could get pretty hairy on the upper progression levels, so my suggestion at those points ($400 field bet level) would be to take that win and step down to the $50 field bet level and start there. Catching up should happen.

    Your thoughts please

    falcon
     
    #12
  13. DeMango, Jan 20, 2012

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2010
    Messages:
    5,536
    Likes Received:
    2,350
    Gender:
    Male
    There is no bigger temptation in craps, as a systems player, then the field bet. A decision every throw of the dice. But as you said only a 44% hit rate. That is your biggest reason not to go there. By the way you have no advantage over the house. The vig you pay on both the field and the hop keep the lights paid for at the casino!
     
    #13
  14. kaysirtap, Jan 20, 2012

    kaysirtap

    kaysirtap Member

    Joined:
    Nov 2, 2011
    Messages:
    483
    Likes Received:
    22
    You don't consider a net win of one unit to be a profit?

    I haven't really tried to understand the details of your betting strategy, so I will only make one comment about it: making hop bets on every throw doesn't sound like an attractive way to play.
     
    #14
  15. kaysirtap, Jan 20, 2012

    kaysirtap

    kaysirtap Member

    Joined:
    Nov 2, 2011
    Messages:
    483
    Likes Received:
    22
    than
     
    #15
  16. basicstrategy777, Jan 20, 2012

    basicstrategy777

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2010
    Messages:
    9,344
    Likes Received:
    8,596
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    CT.
    BA-DA- BING !!!
     
    #16
  17. Greatest 7 Shooter in the World, Jan 20, 2012

    Greatest 7 Shooter in the World

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2011
    Messages:
    240
    Likes Received:
    2
    I know one thing 10 sounds like a large number but really it's not.

    roll 1: 5,6,6,8, and 7 out

    very common roll pattern. Now at this point do you have the nuggets to keep up with the double down knowing you are betting to get back to even to win 5 bucks on the next roll. Most don't have the stones.

    I know you were just throwing this out there but it's safe to say to junior members that this is not recommend.


    I have always said the best betting pattern is the one you adapt based off how you historically throw the dice.
     
    #17
  18. falcon, Jan 20, 2012

    falcon

    falcon Member

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2012
    Messages:
    420
    Likes Received:
    6

    I love it when the "sophisticated, knowledgeable, aficionados" can not think outside the box. I find it interesting that most comments or alternate answers almost never point out why a particular "strategy" might not succeed or where and how the losses will occur.

    Perhaps you might re-read my post and note that it started with how one might lose. I do not believe there was a suggestion that this was an end all type of gambit but only an alternative less risky, more profitable possibility to explore.

    As far as hopping the 7 on every roll as a supplement to the Field bet on every roll strategy, it offers the player six more ways to win and when the wins appear on multiple consecutive rolls (which does happen with some frequency), the profits exceed one unit.
    Starting at $5 on the Field only and losing until the fifth level ($80 play) then hitting to reap a $5 return is not my idea of a great profit or a stress-less way to play.

    The hop 7 plus Field at the third level ($12 hop plus $24 Field) provides a net win of $40 if the 7 comes up or $12 net with a Field win.
    While there are more $$$ wagered (remember there is a $3,000 buy in), the opportunities for real winning go well beyond a one unit "profit" and the odds of winning on any given roll far exceed the Field only gambit by almost 20%.

    BA-DA-BING

    falcon
     
    #18
  19. basicstrategy777, Jan 20, 2012

    basicstrategy777

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2010
    Messages:
    9,344
    Likes Received:
    8,596
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    CT.
    To not make 1 field number in 10 tosses ........seems like it would be very hard not to do.

    I think the double or triple payout on the 2 or 12 would save me when I am into my 7th, 8th or 9th roll. Having 1280 out there and hitting a 12 would be nice. After all....the 2 or12 eventually are due and they should show 2 times in 36 tosses. I should be able to last 36 tosses.

    Understand, I am not recommending this as a way to play.....we are just kicking it around.

    777
     
    #19
  20. DeMango, Jan 20, 2012

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2010
    Messages:
    5,536
    Likes Received:
    2,350
    Gender:
    Male
    I did not call BS 777 an idiot. However there is an idiot at work here who loses all his money as per his post on January 13th, then goes on a rampage, with a plethora of posts, questioning all aspects of dice setting and finally puts out this useless poll and acomplishes nothing. Does he go to an AP DI site? NOOOOOOO. Does he ask useless questions to his choir, the disbelivers? Of course. What you want from me, you ain't gonna get, you get nothing!
     
    #20