Field Bet Martingale..Math help

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by basicstrategy777, Jan 3, 2012.

  1. falcon, Feb 1, 2012

    falcon

    falcon Member

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    Dewey was an ex-governor of NY state whose math and the NY Times shouted out that he had just won the presidency. The real easy math showed Truman won and thus the Dewey Decimal System was created to be used for Al Gore against George W. Bush to show that Gore won Florida and the presidency in 2000. Dewey was a PL/2X odds player against Truman who was a Place bettor on a vote for vote wager. Somehow the short term PL/2X FO votes could not catch up to the Place bets wins and Dewey lost.

    Some presidential folklore that has been lost in the archives.

    falcon
     
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  2. Southern-Comfort, Feb 1, 2012

    Southern-Comfort

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    Dewey was Donald Duck's nephew. The Dewey Decimal System has nothing to do with math, but it rather a method of filing used by libraries.
     
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  3. falcon, Feb 2, 2012

    falcon

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    SC: Dewey is southern for Dewar's straight up as in, "bartender give me a Dewey." The Dewey Decimal System was invented to allow carpenter furniture makers to make file cabinets with really tiny drawers. Besides, one does not file in a library because a rasp is too noisy.

    falcon
     
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  4. The Midnight Skulker, Feb 2, 2012

    The Midnight Skulker

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    Since I am going to be responding point by point I will revert to Usenet quoting format.
    "> > >" precedes quotes from falcon's post of February 1, 2012, at 09:50 AM.
    "> >" precedes quotes from my response posted February 1, 2012, at 11:29 AM.
    ">" precedes quotes from falcon's response to my response posted February 1, 2012, at 02:48 PM.

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    > > > 1. Odds bets cannot be made until the point is established for the PL and Come.

    > > 1. So? Odds bets are separate from the flat Pass/Come bet, made at different times under different conditions.

    > 1. So? Are you saying the different "conditions" are rain, sleet, and snow? 67% of the time the different "condition" is that the flat bet did not win or lose. It is at that time that the odds bets are pushed out on the green ... .

    At the time the flat PL bet is made there is no point established, and it is possible that no point will be established, which in turn means no odds bet will be allowed. At the time the odds bet is made there is a point established. IOW the conditions are different. We seem to agree on this; I commented on it only because you seemed to think it was relevant.

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    > > > 2. 67% of the time the PL bet is inert and provides no "comfort" or foul language.

    > > 2. I have no idea what you're saying here. A PL bet is always working, never inert.

    > 2. When the PL bet does not win or lose on the come out, it is moot or inert 67% of the time -- nothing happened to change its condition ... .

    The status of a flat PL bet does not change when it establishes a point: it remains "in action", the official term for unresolved and owned by neither the house nor the player. However, the status of the game has changed. Odds bets are now permitted, and the number that must roll for the bet to win has been chosen. These conditions are different than those in effect when the flat PL bet was made. If "moot" = "inert" = "in action" then I guess we are in agreement here.

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    > > > 3. Therefore, the PL wager, 67% of the time, now becomes a "put" bet.

    > > 3. More precisely, during the point phase, which is reached 67% of the time, a PL bet functions like a Put bet.

    > 3. Well guess what you and I agree.

    Careful. Functioning like a Put bet is not the same as becoming a Put bet. If it became a Put bet it could be removed before the next roll of the dice.

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    > > > 4. And therefore, the 1X, 2X, & 3X PL/FO 67% of the time gets the "short change" shaft from the house on its payouts.

    > > 4. I say again, Odds bets are separate from the flat Pass/Come bet, made at different times under different conditions. They have nothing to do with the comparison of flat PL bets to Place bets. Both get short changed, as you put it, and during the point phase the flat PL bet gets the greener weenie -- because it did not get resolved on the comeout roll where, if it had been resolved, it would have won twice as often as it lost.

    > 4. I am not sure what exactly you mean by the "greener weenie." Is that better or worse than the Place bet win? Your repitition of # 1 is addressed by my #1. Admitting that the PL flat bet gets "short changed" is not going to make guido1 very happy. He emphatically stated that PL players never get "short changed" at "ANY" time. That last "statistic" is really nice, but you need to be sure to inform the others that "won twice as often as it lost" is a whopping net 11% of the time.

    I do not recall guido1 ever saying PL players never get short changed. In fact, was it not he who stated that they do get short changed, being paid even money when they should get paid 1.028:1 (or something close to that)?

    As for the 11% I have no problem informing anybody interested that a PL bet will, on average, win immediately 2 times out of 9.

    You also really should learn how to use Google. I took me 10 seconds tops to find this link: http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=green weenie.

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    > > > 5. To complete the brainwashing, the craps establishment has fostered and ingrained a fact that somehow an 11% chance (net) of winning a table minimum (for the most part) wager (your so-called "two-stage" bet) will overcome Place bets of equal $$ amounts 67% of the time.

    > > 5. You are going to have to show your work on this one. Mine is at http://www.crapsforum.com/viewreply/6002. Remember to make both bets on the comeout roll and have the Place bet working.

    > 5. I have trouble making sense of what the craps establishment believes let alone "show(ing) my work." Having the Place bet working at Come out is nonsensical. Which number is working or are you suggesting that one should bet across the board and have them all working at Come out against a single PL wager at the table minimum? I don't think I will buy into that one.

    "Both" implies two -- that would be 2, as in one (1) PL bet and one (1) Place bet. Pick a number, any number, to place. Now, show your work, as I did at the link cited.

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    > > > 6. Since the point can only be tossed once, the Place bettor's two, three, four, etc. "stage" bet becomes the press which will continue to outperform the usual one time FO wager for that point. As long as the shooter throws numbers that are not the point, the Place bettor will reap victory after victory at the rate of two to one even against the Come/O bettor. However, when that 7 does show up, I fear all left on the table save one Come bet is lost.

    > > 6. And so the Place bettor is in effect making more bets than the Pass/Come bettor, and if those bets win is making more profit than the Pass/Come bettor. An observation to put Yogi Berra to shame: You win more when you win more. :bug: Who'd a-thunk it!

    > 6. Not sure what #6 means - see #5 above.

    You posit a hand where many point numbers are thrown and have a Place bettor betting and staying up on all of those numbers while a Come bettor makes a single bet and waits for it to be resolved before making another Come bet. Of course the Place bettor will outperform a Come bettor in that situation, but that means nothing. A series of results can be composed to show that any strategy is superior to any other strategy.

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    > 7. So why did you not address the odds better at 1X, 2X, & 3X vs the Place bet on the same number with the same $$ amount at risk 67% of the time? Oh, I forgot, you did, you stated that they get "short changed" 67% of the time along with the Place bettor, but you did not say that the Place bettor makes more money. Why is that???

    Because the Place bettor does not make more money when 100% rather than 67% of the time is considered.
     
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  5. falcon, Feb 2, 2012

    falcon

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    Midnight: I need to say that your computer skills far and away exceed my huge lack of skills. I am going to take a computer class next week and hopefully become one tenth as proficient as you are exhibiting above.

    I have some errands to run right now, so I will answer your postings a little later, but somehow we do seem to be on the same page with a lot of the stuff herein. If there are some disagreements, it could be because I did not make myself clear.

    Anyway, thanks for taking the time and for some info I was not aware of.

    falcon
     
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  6. 7Craps, Feb 2, 2012

    7Craps

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    No tuttyfruttygym, falcon, yuck you a gym rat?.

    Do not take a computer class. NO. stay away.
    Keep believing all that you have posted. No need to mess up the computer universe.

    You have already proven by many of your posts that your flea/troll title fits. Wear it proudly!

    Did Guido sweet talk you by calling you his long lost bro? *******Damn******

    We should all take a 2 by 4 to both of you.

    There are many lakes around to jump in or dolls to play with.
    You ever get to Tunica?

    FYI: I am off to Vegas
    Yahoo!
     
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    HornHighBLEVE likes this.
  7. Sancho Panza, Feb 2, 2012

    Sancho Panza

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    Among the welter of misstatements in that post is one regarding which newspaper printed the headline "Dewey Beats Truman." It was The Chicago Tribune, which called itself "the world's greatest newspaper."
     
    #67
  8. falcon, Feb 4, 2012

    falcon

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    Mr. Midnight: Let me respond as best as I can by your numbers:

    1. It seems we are in agreement here noting that the PL wager is "active" 33% of the time when an outcome is immediate. To my interpretation, the other 67% of the time, the come out only establishes the point after which time the PL then becomes "active" again. I understand that the next roll does establish those "condidtions."

    2. I concur with the assessment here.

    3. Others here have balked at what you and I are saying of the great unwashed 67% of play. Somehow, they believe that the majority portion of play creates a player payout edge even at 1X, 2X, and 3X odds, and the house does not "short change" players with their payouts, and they would be wrong.

    4. I placed guido1's quote up there; please note. We agree here also.

    5. I do not have to show my work on this one as the odds of the 7 showing more often at come out than any Place number is directly related to the number of ways any of those numbers can be tossed. The 11% PL edge is just not an attractive bet for my play. That "gateway" bet, for me, allows for less flexability of play and requires a larger investment in one number, as discussed above, to warrant the gamble.

    6. Yogi - a great philosopher!!

    7. I am not sure that point can be addressed accurately, and for me, it is not important. If one relies on those "simulations" to "prove" that PL/FO players make more $$$ than straight Place bettors, so be it. My personal experience has shown me that players buying in at low amounts, as most seem to do, leave the table broke while a few who catch that "hot" shooter do win as do the Place bettors. PL/FO more $$ ? Perhaps, but at 1X, 2X, & 3X odds not really sure.

    As you say strategy outcomes can be shown in various favorable lights. I find it so strange that so many are relying on vast numbers of "simulations" covering tens of thousands of rolls, wagers, and outcomes to justify their math and any way to play. It would seem to me that the only real test is their own personal experience and outcome relating to finishing their year up or down. That is how I determine if my play is fulfilling my goals and pocketbook.

    falcon
     
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  9. falcon, Feb 4, 2012

    falcon

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    7OOOOOCRAP: Do you sit and vegetate so that your juvenile name calling gives you some kind of superior satisfaction? Me, I swim a lot every day and do also manage to weight train some.

    It does seem that there are some who can show agreement with my posts, and some who might disagree can do so without the childishness which you love to exhibit. While I might try their patience, most here do maintain their cool.

    You post like the "dominator?" - a thug who cannot match up in a majority of ways. "We"? You need help lifting and wielding that 2 X 4? Perhaps it is you that needs some gym time.

    Tunica was my destination of choice until AirTran stopped flying there. Harrah's used to foot the bill, but alas, no more.

    I wish you well in Vegas, and keep the 2X4's in your room. The security there is pretty intense.

    falcon
     
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  10. falcon, Feb 4, 2012

    falcon

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    SP: The Chicago Tribune it is. Thanks for the correction. Did you check you sense of humor at the door? "Misstatements"? Hardly.
     
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  11. Sancho Panza, Feb 4, 2012

    Sancho Panza

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    The sense of humor extends just to the point of wholesale rewriting of history. I didn't intend to bring up more problems, but seeing as how you insist, Dewey was not an "an ex-governor of NY state" when he ran for the presidency. He was a sitting chief executive: "Thomas Edmund Dewey (March 24, 1902 – March 16, 1971) was the 47th Governor of New York (1943–1954)."
     
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  12. basicstrategy777, Feb 4, 2012

    basicstrategy777

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    And on and on and on it goes.....he will just post anything that comes to mind and invariably it is just bad information, no matter the subject. After a while you get a rep and ultimately you just can't believe what he says. I guess that's why the internet is so great.....you can say anything you want. Someone will believe you.

    777
     
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  13. falcon, Feb 4, 2012

    falcon

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    Picky, picky, picky - I did not write that he was an ex-governor "when he ran", just that he was an ex-governor.

    Now we have BS 7 X three who apparently has never made a mistake, if that did happen would never admit it. After all, I am sure he believes that the house never short changes a PL/FO player in payouts no matter what the odds played.

    falcon
     
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  14. basicstrategy777, Feb 4, 2012

    basicstrategy777

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    Live in denial and enjoy every day.

    777
     
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  15. Sancho Panza, Feb 4, 2012

    Sancho Panza

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    This sentence that you wrote communicates otherwise: "Dewey was an ex-governor of NY state whose math and the NY Times shouted out that he had just won the presidency."
     
    #75
  16. DeMango, Feb 4, 2012

    DeMango

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    +1
     
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  17. falcon, Feb 5, 2012

    falcon

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    SP: Hey, try this one. I was wrong about a piece of unimportant minutia, while you and some of your think alikes are wrong about embracing endless computer SIMULATIONS which have no semblance of reality if brought to the tables. The craps math which incompasses your logic with almost endless decimal places (which was the original subject within this thread) is basically unintelligible, confusing, and teachable to no one. I wonder, if and when you are explaining or teaching the game to your children or grandchildren, you teach them about the 1.41%; 1.42%,etc.,etc. HAs which do not exist and have nothing to do with winning or losing or provide the various charts and graphs produced by guido1 with quantitative narratives of explanation or speak and teach about the undefinable "long term" expectations? Because, if you do, they will probably take up slots, croquet, or DVR programming.

    Now go forth and let all know that you have caught me in a meaningless error which has little to do about anything, and then get those kids craps "educated" and ready to take on the house and clean them out.

    falcon
     
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  18. kaysirtap, Feb 5, 2012

    kaysirtap

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    Sorry falcon, but your posts seem to be full of errors, meaningless or not. I have read all of your posts on this forum, and most of the information you provide regarding facts of the game of Craps are incorrect. Even when you say that you agree with other explanations of facts, you actually don't.

    I've kept relatively quiet in regards to your erroneous posts because I find it somewhat amusing how you are unable to accept varying levels of proof against your beliefs. But seriously... enough is enough. You are certainly entitled to your opinion, but please stop stating those opinions as facts... especially those based on math.
     
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  19. Southern-Comfort, Feb 5, 2012

    Southern-Comfort

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    When your instruments tell you one thing, and your intuitiontells you another.... believe your instruments.
     
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  20. Sancho Panza, Feb 5, 2012

    Sancho Panza

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    That is fine when the instruments are in order. But as we see here, they are often not functional.
     
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