Field Betting... WTF! Martingale ? ?

Discussion in 'Beginner Zone' started by BuckShot, Mar 19, 2019.

  1. BuckShot, Mar 19, 2019

    BuckShot

    BuckShot Member

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    So I was introduced with a question on betting the field and utilizing a martingale with "Google" dice rolling.

     
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  2. TDVegas, Mar 19, 2019

    TDVegas

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    Having seen 18 right side winners in a row....and less, many, many times....

    Any Marty will eventually become a very, very expensive nightmare.

    Not because I wanted to....but I turned a $1 bubble player using a dark side Monty into a $500 loss.

    This guy will walk with a $5 profit. He's been told by several..."very dangerous".

    At his rate and style of play...hoping for a lot of luck, it'll take a lifetime to win that $500 back.
     
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  3. von duck, Mar 20, 2019

    von duck

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    You, and those that "liked" this post are full of shit. A Martingale or some cousin of the Martingale, is the best chance a non-AP has, of walking with a decent profit, short of putting it all on one roll. A field Martingale also has a chance of a double, or even triple winner if you choose the right table.
    If one cannot control the outcomes of the dice, then what is left is, where you will place your money, and how much you bet. This guy's strategy is as good as any, and better than most. He is putting the casino in a position to have to have a long run, to knock him out.
    If one plays such a system, one will win most of the time, which by the way is what MOST of us are trying to do. None of these systems alter the H/A per-say, but they still give the average JOE, a better chance to walk with a winner.
    By the way TD, you sound a little like TR-31 in this post. What did you do? Employ the " nuclear Option"? :cool:
     
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  4. The Midnight Skulker, Mar 20, 2019

    The Midnight Skulker

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    I did not view the video. Nevertheless, I must point out that a straight Simple Martingale wins only the amount of the first bet of the series regardless of the size of the bet that won; the house is paying the difference with money previously lost by the player during the series. Losing progressions win more times than they lose, so if average JOE wants only to have the house pay for his trip to the all-you-can-eat buffet then he is the favorite to get a free meal. Unfortunately, when the solid waste makes its way into the air circulation system he had best be appropriately attired with a whole lot more than a skunk hat and a goat coat.
     
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  5. Mssthis1, Mar 20, 2019

    Mssthis1

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    Even if both the 2/12 paid triple, the Martingale would be a poor choice to play in the field since it isn't a linear bet. 20 ways to lose only 16 ways to win. Or looking at it from a different angle, you'll lose 25% more bets than you win. You'd have to get lucky and hit a big bet on the 2/12 and then be smart enough to bolt immediately for the cage to stand a chance.
     
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    Last edited: Mar 20, 2019
  6. TDVegas, Mar 20, 2019

    TDVegas

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    I think he did hit a 2 with an $800 loss progression...put the $2,400 off to the side, and then decided to play 5-6-8-9 bets. Then he decided to also play the field in conjunction. The place bets were hitting (6 & 8)....but the field losses were eclipsing his wins. Then he had, I think, $1,000 on the field and about $1,000 on the 5-6-8-9 with his win progression......7 out next roll. 2k....whoosh.
     
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  7. von duck, Mar 20, 2019

    von duck

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    What you say, is for the most part, sort of true, but not quite. There are a couple of points that you either missed, or intentionally left out. A simple martingale on the field, has a 2.777% chance of a double winnner, and if played on the "proper" table, also a 2.777% chance of a triple winner, with each decision, both of which pay a hefty dividend, over previous losses. When playing a "martingale" a win produces not only a monetary gain, but also, a gain, or reset of the house, chance of winning. I refer to this "reset" as a gain in "position". If a player has $511, and can begin the progression at $1, then the house has to win 9 bets in a row, to break the player, pretty tough, but it will happen. Any units picked up by the player, before 9 loses in a row are NOT lost when the shit hits the fan. On the field, the chance of 9 losers in a row, are about 1/200, maybe you see it in 5 minutes, maybe 5 days. In any case, the casino is in a position of having to hit a 200/1 shot.
    I do not believe that this example is the optimum, application of the Martingale, but it is still, not too bad. One other point, is that a Martingale, is for a player with very LARGE BALLS, hence, not at all for TD. I believe this system, gives an unskilled player, a much better chance of a winner than just about anything else, but obviously, is not a "lock". :cool:
     
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  8. von duck, Mar 20, 2019

    von duck

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    We're talking Martingale here, not D'Alumbert's pyramid. With a Martingale, any winner starts the progression over, so so cumulative winners are not a problem, with the pyramid, they are a problem. :cool:
     
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  9. BuckShot, Mar 20, 2019

    BuckShot

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    I just posted a new video on the SEVEN (4to1) and lost my shirt on a losing streak of 16 numbers in a row. I'm sorry but in theory the Martingale style betting sounds good, but I would never ever try this at live tables.
     
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  10. von duck, Mar 20, 2019

    von duck

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    You don't bet it on a GD 4/1 shot. It needs to be a bet you will win pretty often. You should be able to see this without even a test run. Even a 2/1 shot has too many long runs, no winners. On the field the chances of 9 straight losses, is about 200/1 on the 7 the chance of 9 straight losses is about 1/5. One hell of a lot of difference. How long did you last, maybe 10 minutes? :cool:
     
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    Last edited: Mar 21, 2019
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  11. The Midnight Skulker, Mar 20, 2019

    The Midnight Skulker

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    The omission was intentional and I have a razzle dazzle straw hat and cane routine left over from my corporate IT days to justify it. (No black face, either now or back then BTW.) My "straight Simple Martingale" incorporates the enhanced payoffs on a 2x2/3x12 table such that each win pays (14 + 2 + 3) / 16 = 1.1875 to 1. The progression would therefore not be a straight double, rather 0.8421,1.6842, 3.3684, 6.7368, 13.4737, ... . Should be a piece of cake to use on the play table depicted.
     
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  12. von duck, Mar 20, 2019

    von duck

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    I figured it was. This post has absolutely nothing to do with any point I was attempting to make. My point is simple. Put the casino in the position of having to do something difficult, in this case, win 9 in a row. Is a simple system to play, so anybody could do it, and I'll guarantee you, most would have a much better chance to walk out the door, with more than they walked in with. Beats the hell out of any SHIT plays, TD will recommend. :cool:
     
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  13. Mssthis1, Mar 20, 2019

    Mssthis1

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    James way is better for the field. Bet $5 and parley it 9 times. Win at least $2560 or walk a $5 loser.
     
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  14. James Hall, Mar 20, 2019

    James Hall

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    Why would anyone do that??
     
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  15. von duck, Mar 21, 2019

    von duck

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    I have never heard James advocate the field bet. I have heard that dumbass TD recommend the horn bet, one of the worst on the table. This bet (James Way) is the reverse martingale. If as TD says, the Martingale is "bad", then logic would dictate, that the "Reverse Martingale" must be "good". So what's your problem? :cool:
     
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  16. James Hall, Mar 21, 2019

    James Hall

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    Here is an option , place $1 on the field , press it 31 times
    and pull it.
    How much would you have???
    Any math guys in the house???
     
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  17. BuckShot, Mar 21, 2019

    BuckShot

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    is 31 timeseven possible? I've seen runs of 25 at the Baccarat tables but not sure if it's even possible in craps.

    The average field bet run is 3-5
     
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  18. Mssthis1, Mar 21, 2019

    Mssthis1

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    I did see 13 in a row a couple weeks ago. Only reason I noticed is because the guy next to me was betting $25 in the field every roll. He overstayed his welcome and left with 0.

    The answer is 0....................................

    If you bet across and press too much the answer is also 0. It just takes a few more rolls to get there most of the time................
     
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  19. eagleeye2, Mar 21, 2019

    eagleeye2

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    Mssthis1,

    Right-On.

    That's why a ""PARTIAL PRESS"" is the way to go!

    eagleeye2
     
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  20. James Hall, Mar 21, 2019

    James Hall

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    Possible but not likely but just as a lark see
    what doubling a dollar 31 times would come to
    then do it again with 25 times you mentioned.
     
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