Forumite gathering

Discussion in 'Trip Planning & Meetups' started by KokomoJoe4, Feb 14, 2020.

  1. DeMango, Feb 16, 2020

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    Important question is who offers a private table? Barring that, the lowest volume of craps players if that can be ascertained.
     
    #21
  2. von duck, Feb 16, 2020

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    For myself, I'd be leery of any place that offers 100X odds. To me, this is too much risk, with no probability of winning, long run. I've asked this question before, but let me ask it again. "Is there some way, that the casinos see a profit from the odds bet. I'm not talking about "foul play" but rather, the difference in their play stake, vs the players. We all know (most anyway) what the math says, but is that in fact what happens. :cool:
     
    #22
  3. von duck, Feb 16, 2020

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    Try post #11, but you'll have to look close, because it's like one of those "find Waldo" puzzles. :) Good luck! :cool:
     
    #23

  4. Liman

    Liman Member

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    if it happens, anyone that doesn't want odds on pass line or come bets, Ill take that action on their flat bets and pay them 1 dollar each time I place a bet. win or lose, they get a dollar for each odds bets Im allowed on their action. if they bet 5 dollar line bets, Im giving them a 20% rebate on their bets.
     
    #24
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  5. DeMango, Feb 17, 2020

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    Waiting
     
    #25

  6. Liman

    Liman Member

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    I thought that was the blond beauty standing there in the snow that LID posted a pic of.
     
    #26

  7. Liman

    Liman Member

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    can you see her in this post?
     
    #27
  8. DeMango, Feb 17, 2020

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    No, got lid on ignore.
     
    #28
  9. KokomoJoe4, Feb 18, 2020

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Baron, ?

    Considering that the odds bet is the only FAIR wager* in the casino, how do you arrive at your "no probability of winning" conclusion?

    * IF offered, the free buy bet and the field bet paying triple on both 2 and 12 also qualify as fairly paid wagers
     
    #29
  10. KokomoJoe4, Feb 18, 2020

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    LMAO !! I missed this last time around. You're killing me MS.
     
    #30
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  11. Mssthis1, Feb 18, 2020

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    Horseshoe Council Bluffs has 4 tables, 100X odds. Caesars Southern Indiana shows 100X odds on their website. I haven't been to that casino I think it used to be under a different name. Had a room booked there a few years back and ended up cancelling the trip.

    Ameristar Kansas City is 20X odds and vig after on buys. Last trip (2018) they had 4 tables on the main floor and a table in the high limit room that you could reserve with the proper credentials. 10K front money if I remember correctly.
     
    #31
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2020
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  12. von duck, Feb 18, 2020

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    The statement WAS, "NO PROBABILITY OF A LONG RUN, WINNER! :cool: That's what I said. The bet, is "even Steven " any probability of a winnner by variance, is exactly balanced by that same probability of a loser by variance. I know that you know this to be true, so my question to you would be, "why are you asking the question, when you know my statement was correct. Furthermore FredP, and Mssthis1, also know that my statement was correct, so, what was so much, to "like" about your post? :confused: I mean really WTF? :) We all know that you "hired on" as one of the shills, with the passing of OAP, along with Mssthis1, but I mean let's face it, my post really doesn't leave much to argue about, it is correct as I posted it, and the three of you know it. :cool:
     
    #32
  13. KokomoJoe4, Feb 18, 2020

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Precisely BECAUSE of the variance associated with the use of mega odds at the right time - when you are risking only profit already in hand, this method of play is one of the best and allows for the possibility of beating the game, even beating the hell out of it at times. Of course this comes with a sizable share of losses, which need to be kept small as possible.

    The game is always negative expectation. The fact that the Do player is favorite for only one roll of the dice suggests he should utilize those one roll advantages with use of parlays. This has nothing to do with odds, other than the avoidance of placing them with the parlay.

    Underdog at all times when sitting on a box number, you take your chances by placing a much larger odds wager. If you don't like the bet, no one is forcing you to make it.

    Yes, I know I am the underdog whether sitting on the four or the six, but because with the odds bet I will be paid fairly on the winner, collecting 1.2 to 2x more than I am risking, I make the bet. This is gambling, and it's as close to a fair game that I can get.

    When you state there is no probability of a long run winner, I beg to differ. I've haven't dug into my wallet to play craps since 2004. Don't get me wrong. There is no skill involved, just what I would call smart and aggressive at times play.
     
    #33

  14. Liman

    Liman Member

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    last week when I was mapping out a route for july, I think it was horseshoe council bluffs that listed sold out on the dates we wanted. Harrahs had plenty of space. Pretty sure it was horseshoe, or a hotel next to it. connected to casino, too lazy to look it up now....Im thinking, really, not insulting anyone who lives out there, but council bluffs hotel is sold out on a Thursday night? damn.
     
    #34
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  15. Mssthis1, Feb 18, 2020

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    The hotel at the horseshoe in council bluffs is very small. Maybe 80 rooms. Originally it didn't have a hotel. One was added as an afterthought later on.
     
    #35
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  16. random_roller, Feb 18, 2020

    random_roller

    random_roller Member

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    Nobody is required to bet odds, let alone 100x odds. However, the option exists for the craps player at Rivers Casino (Des Plaines, IL) and Horseshoe (Hammond, IN). Only a handful of casinos are willing to take such action. Not sure there is even a casino in Las Vegas that offers 100x odds. The house still has an expected advantage on the combined bet (flat + odds), even at 100x odds.

    The probability of winning at craps in the long run is low, perhaps extremely low, but it is above zero. Some people play craps infrequently and only make minimal, low HE bets. Variance can allow for such players and others to end up on the plus side. Expectations and reality don't always end up the same 100% of the time.
     
    #36
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  17. von duck, Feb 19, 2020

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    If it's the week of July 4, being sold out on a Thursday, is probably not that unusual. :)
     
    #37
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  18. KokomoJoe4, Feb 19, 2020

    KokomoJoe4

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    DM, For your eyes only, here she is.

    [​IMG]
     
    #38
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  19. von duck, Feb 19, 2020

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    I understand YOUR motivation for the odds bet. :) My post was basically questioning the CASINO'S motivation to offer you 100X odds, when their long run expectation, is to break even on the bet. Also, by offering those kind of odds, one would think that they would see only minimal action on the line bets, where they figure to make their money. :confused: The whole thing makes not much sense to me. I mean, if the betting public is foolish enough to play 6/5 BJ, and 150/30 ATS bets, why would the casino give these "suckers" an even break with 100X odds. I've contemplated this question for years, and the only plausible answer I can come up with, is that the casinos "see" a profit, on the odds bet, in spite of what the math says. I don't know this to be a corrrect assumption, but, applying the principle of Occums Razor to the problem, this is what I keep coming up with. I've ask the question more than once, and nobody will touch it with a ten foot pole, which leads me to believe, that maybe I'm right. :cool: I do not have a "formula" that produces this answer, however, I do have a couple of theory's as to why it might be true, and they don't involve crooked dice, just "gamblers tendencies".:)
     
    #39
  20. lone irish digit, Feb 19, 2020

    lone irish digit

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    This is Barney

    I believe in one of the LIDs book he states the reason that casinos make monies on big odds bet is because craps personages will go bust long before casino, especially those with $100 buy ins.
     
    #40
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