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Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by Stuart Brandt, Jan 20, 2019.
Ellis Davis is a system scammer.
Yes , yes I can see that , Appropriate .
As seen from a point of envy by someone who lacks skill.
or the shaft to defend his opinion.
At 15:00, he says you need a $20K bankroll. He also mentions $90 hop bets at level seven. That would be a $630 single roll bet to cover his seven hop bets.
I didn't watch the video but wanted to mention I saw a guy playing a weird system last night on the bubble. He'd place the six and eight, hop the 4,5,9,10, bet all the hardways and sometimes bet the horn.
After an hour and a half of so of play he mentioned he was was ahead $50 or so. Shortly after that was the first PSO all night and he said that wiped out all his profit.
He was whining about how cold the bubble was. The average roll length was 10 and there was only 1 PSO all night. No hot shooter rolls, that was probably what formed his cold dice opinion.
I won $152 playing a conservative lay bet progression. I thought the dice were pretty warm.
Great post Mssthis1
Funny , how twp people on the same table at
the same time making different bets on the same
outcomes , can each walk away with a totally different
perception of the table condition , hot or cold.
Leads me even more to believe that the table has
little or nothing to do with the final result but rather the
final result , success or failure , remains in the hands of each player.
I love at 7 min mark,di explained. Perfect
You're right , he DOES HAVE A POINT.
Doing something the same way every time is
THE DEFINITION of NONRANDOM.
I have not taken his advantage dice control, but I have heard alot about him and have talked with him a few times on the phone. He is a stand up guy and his methods work well for the short game.
I personally have used the hop strategy to my advantage, If i could recommend anyone to learn from it would be Beau in north vegas, The dice coach, He charges $220 for a 2 hr class and $295 for a 2hr one on one.
Highly skilled player.
Some say luck some say skill, what it boils down to for me is skill level and commitment to the game
but if your only playing for fun and not a living then you cannot expect alot.
I suggest watching bonethrower on youtube, I have learned alot from his mentality and dice methods and its free.
Tony says in one of his videos that his average roll is at least TEN rolls before he sevens out but since he uses a progressive hop style method he many times puts up hundreds of dollars per roll all I can say is..........I WILL STICK WITH PLAYING BACCARAT ONLINE WITH TEN DOLLAR UNITS LOL.
TONY HAS BALLS OF STEEL,,,,,,,,,,,,,, MY WIFE ALREADY SQUASHED MINE LOL.
YES TONY IS A STANDUP GUY HE WILL PUT HIS MONEY WHERE HIS MOUTH IS AND YOU BETTER WATCH YOUR MOUTH GUYS OR HE WILL PUT A WOOPIN ON YOU LOL.
Also if you watch the above videos he is not trying to work with people living off foodstamps and welfare his line of attack is retired upper middle class people who want to make some extra money off playing craps again he talks about three banks of 6000 each 95 percent of people going to the craps TABLE DONT HAVE THAT KIND OF SCRATCH IN their table next to their bed or sock drawer.
I like Tony.Also BT is very entertaining to watch and he has great rolls.Perhaps one of the " hapless vagabonds" here or over at Heavys
If he's suggesting his long term SRR is 10...he's bullshitting.
If the average hand is 8.5...ipso, fatso...add 1.5 onto 6 SRR, you get a 7.5 SRR...
He's also bullshitting.
If he plays 3 times a week, 10 hands per day...maybe 70~80 rolls. Ticky ticky tock, that's 250 rolls per week, 1,000 rolls per month. 12,000 over the course of a year. Ok, ok, let's give him some weeks off...make it an even 10k rolls.
He's not averaging a 10 SRR (not even fucking Superman can do this) nor is he averaging a 7.5 SRR.
10 SRR? Cut the bullshit. That's just Wild, Wild West probabilities...or outer space probabilities. IOW's...ain't happening. The other stuff he claims...I have no way to verify.
Stuart, everything can be downsized, but know this, to be successful one must know how to increase or decrease odds on numbers happening. Can’t happen online. Without di you are playing with fire
Yesterday at table there was a guy betting multiple hop bets at ever increasing levels. When he won, he won big, but when he lost, it was expensive to replace all his bets. One of his most memorable wins was a hop bet when he had so many other bets on the table including horn, that his payout---to stay up on all bets---was $0. Tough way to make money !!
TD, I’m usually at 200 to 400 rolls per day on a trip. He does mention early morning visits. We don’t know what his comeout game plan is. ie more sevens. I would give him a pass on rolls and lengths. Not on money earned which I don’t think he has, please correct.
Dave, please have the decency to finish your sentences. You do know how to use edit, do you??
Dave, please have the decency to finish your sentences. You do know how to use edit??
Short term....he, me and you can pull off just about anything on SRR. And yes, I would want to know how he counts. I went thru this with tdb until we figured out the accounting methods differ.
If he's claiming his long term (10k rolls overall, let's say) is hovering around 10 or even 7.5 SRR...
I'm sorry...I'm calling foul on the play. We're talking traditional roll length and SRR calc's. If he uses something different...I withdraw my statement.
I've done a 12 SRR over 100+ rolls. I've done 7-8-9 over 100+ rolls. It can even get into the several hundreds of rolls...but it's get tougher.
I'm only talking his overall long term...literally thousands of rolls. His long term SRR isn't going to be 10. If I had to guess...over that many rolls 5.7 to 6.3 SRR.
Generally what ends up happening is people use short term to justify long term. Sure, there will be many times the SRR is above 7. There will also be many times it's below 5. In the end...it averages out...give or take.