Hit Frequency vs Rate of return

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by Dave G Ct, Dec 26, 2016.

  1. Dave G Ct, Dec 26, 2016

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    Okay what bet do you prefer?
    $44 inside or $24 6&8
    Both are similiar in money at risk.On paper the rate of return with the 6&8 is far superior..BUT
    What if they are not hitting.and the 5&9 are.What if you are looking for only one hit on the $44 inside and you plan to drop the 5&9 after that first hit. Lot of options at play.There is really no right answer unless you are married to the math.Anybody want to weigh in?
     
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  2. HornHighBLEVE, Dec 26, 2016

    HornHighBLEVE

    HornHighBLEVE Member

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    Wishfully thinking over the two choices I like the $44 inside because it's painful to watch box numbers hit that you're not playing. The thing is knowing when to turn them off.
     
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  3. Edward-ky, Dec 26, 2016

    Edward-ky

    Edward-ky Member

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    The real key is knowing when to put them up in the first place.
     
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  4. AzDice, Dec 26, 2016

    AzDice

    AzDice Member

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    What about playing the iron cross for $12 six and eight, $5 field $5 five. Only staying on it to figure out the table and dice. Not a better rate of return but it gives you all the numbers early.
     
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  5. Dave G Ct, Dec 26, 2016

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    AzDice
    You are right about that.
     
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  6. The Midnight Skulker, Dec 27, 2016

    The Midnight Skulker

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    So you contend that 1 + 1 = 2 only if you are married to the math?

    For each scenario a player is considering -- $44 inside vs. $48 Section 8 in this context -- the math can describe the universe of session results from which that player will pick one. Presumably the parameters of interest are the chances of experiencing various profit/loss levels, the ratio of thrills of victory to agonies of defeat, and the chance of surviving for some specified period of time as a function of bankroll. Once a player has determined the relative importance of each of those parameters (and any others he/she can think of) then there is a right answer. It is just not the same answer for every player, nor the same answer for any player every session.
     
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  7. Onautopilot, Dec 27, 2016

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    Excellent response, but I am afraid it will be received by some that are not familiar with the "process", somewhat like people respond to a discussion on quantum entanglement.........they stick their fingers in their ears and start humming real loud. :)
     
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  8. The Midnight Skulker, Dec 27, 2016

    The Midnight Skulker

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    {La, la, la, la, ...] What?
     
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  9. James Hall, Dec 27, 2016

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    fingers in ears and humming or FIEAH as it is known in some circles
    is also known scientifically as DCWFIHAMUMM by others as
    DON'T CONFUSE ME WITH FACTS I HAVE ALREADY MADE UP MY MIND
    I see that a lot
    It is rather amusing or at least curious
    One thing I like about this forum , is the different opinions that are available
    the thing I find rather curious is how these opinions are formed with such a broad expanse
    between the two absolutely polarized extremes
    one extreme says , not possible
    the other side says , it's the only thing that works
    it's amusing , rather curious , always entertaining and many times educational
     
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  10. Onautopilot, Dec 27, 2016

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    I don't think many people have said anything is impossible.....just improbable in most cases.

    Our differences here on this forum, and everywhere else, is that ones "reality" shapes their thoughts....and no two people have exactly the same reality, and some have very opposing realities.

    A rational person changes their reality based on a "proof" that their original reality was wrong, even then it can be a difficult thing....the brain is a strange animal in that way, in fact in many ways. :)
     
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  11. James Hall, Dec 27, 2016

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    what is amusing and at the same time amassing , two people can witness the same event
    and come away with exactly opposing views and opinions
    some people hold the idea that perception is reality
    therefore sometimes with some people their reality may be absolutely incorrect
    and they will argue their point of view even when they know they are wrong
    I am not speaking from a craps situation
    I am talking about life in general
    I have one friend who , when he make up his mind to something , he will not change , even when proved wrong
    winning an argument with him is a great satisfaction
    and you only know when that happens when he says "Well alright , but I still think you are wrong"
    then you won't see or hear from him for days

    One thing remains constant
    "HIGHLY SUCCESSFUL PEOPLE GENERALLY MAKE DECISIONS VERY QUICKLY
    AND CHANGE THEIR MINDS VERY INFREQUENTLY"
    that applies to some pretty stubborn people too
     
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