" HOP " The 7's - on the Come-Out Roll -

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by $nakeEye$, Oct 12, 2011.

  1. $nakeEye$, Oct 12, 2011

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    ALL AC Casinos allow you to place a minimum $1 " HOP " bet on each and every number combination that can be thrown with the two dice -

    Unlike the Pocono casinos - and I " assume " like wise with SE PA -

    As these combos are NOT on the layout -

    They are NOT allowed -

    The " HOP any 7's bet " as I am assured - many if not most - would construe it to be a " sucker " bet -

    Depends -

    WHAT KIND OF A SHOOTER DO WE HAVE HERE , BOYS AND GIRLS ? -

    Do we have a " Gripper/Ripper - Flinger/Winger -

    OR -

    Do we have a deliberate care taking setter who throws gingerly/ softly to the same spot with the same set over and over and over again -

    I have done the " 5-Count " on each and every shooter -

    And, I must admit, in all honesty , I will not bet on the " Winger-Flingers / Shake,Rattle and Rollers " and others in their category -

    Regardless of how many point numbers / passes that these morons make -

    They are losers - in my book - in the long term -

    In the short term -

    They might have a lucky run or 2 or 3 or 4 -

    But they have nothing -

    To get back on topic -

    In lieu of " lay betting against " certain anticipated / expected / hoped for results of the 7's appearance on the come-out roll -

    There is another cheaper approach -

    A $3 " Hop the 7's " on the come-out roll -

    It's a $1 wager on the 6/1 - 5/2 and 4/3 combos of the 7 on the come-out - or for that matter ANY roll of the dice -

    The pay-off is 15 for 1 - if you hit -

    Just want to put this out there as I just discovered this allowable bet in the past week or two -

    This can also be played on the " darkside " !!!!!!!!!!!!
     
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  2. eastcoast, Oct 12, 2011

    eastcoast

    eastcoast Member

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    Delaware also allows the "hop" bet, and the fire bet.
     
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  3. basicstrategy777, Oct 12, 2011

    basicstrategy777

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  4. Snap

    Snap Member

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    This is a nice insurance bet I use on the come out with a hot shooter.

    If I am on a hot table with guy throwing number after number I will have ALL the come bets numbers with odds by time he hits the point. A term commonly called having the "House Built" come numbers 4,5,6,8,9, and 10 with odds minus the point of course.

    Instead of losing all my come bets on the come out roll, I will "hop the skinny's" to help cover the cost of keeping my come bets alive. Some casinos will actually allow you to turn the come bets OFF after you win your first skinny hit. VERY NICE!

    Also, if you hit the skinnys, press that bet. Seven is the most common made number and here is the UNIQUE opportunity to make nice cash on a 7 run!.

    As a rhythm roller I am confident enough not to take this bet at a local casino where I know the table, if I am at a different house and unfamiliar table I will hop the 7's on myself.


    When not to make this bet.

    Let say there is a chicken feeder is throwing the dice and you have three or four come bets out there. Take the loss on the come bets if he sevens out and get your odds back. Highly unlikely he will continue hitting multiple points.
     
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  5. $nakeEye$, Dec 26, 2011

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    Explain / expound on that one - I am confused !
     
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  6. kaysirtap, Dec 26, 2011

    kaysirtap

    kaysirtap Member

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    I believe Snap is describing the combined effect of winning the hopping 7's bet and Come bet losses... which are then replaced as Put bets thanks to the proceeds from the hopping 7's bet. Since the odds are normally off during the come-out roll, the hopping 7's bet would only have to cover the Come bets themselves. This explains why they are permitted to be "off" after the first "skinny hit"... because they are (will be) Put bets, not Come bets.
     
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  7. falcon, Jan 19, 2012

    falcon

    falcon Member

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    SnakeEye$: Actually hopping the 7 is a FIVE roll bet. Any challengers on this mathematical phenomena/actuality?

    falcon
     
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  8. kaysirtap, Jan 20, 2012

    kaysirtap

    kaysirtap Member

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    Sure, I'll ask... how is it a five-roll bet?
     
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  9. falcon, Jan 20, 2012

    falcon

    falcon Member

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    kaysirtap: Thanks for asking.

    I will start out by noting that simple math rules this "complicated" game from my perspective and how I approach my play. Therefore, since the 7 can be thrown six ways, the "perfect math" says that the 7 will appear once every six rolls. (We all know that is not always the case.)

    The hop bet pays 15 to 1 plus the player receives one-third of his $3 hop 7 back ($1) when he wins the bet.

    Roll # 1 - hop 7 for $3 = lose $3
    Roll # 2 - hop 7 for $3 = lose $3 total = $6
    Roll # 3 - hop 7 for $3 = lose $3 total = $9
    Roll # 4 - hop 7 for $3 = lose $3 total = $12
    Roll # 5 - hop 7 for $3 = win $15 plus $1 bet return or $16 - net win of $1.

    Please note that the actual amount of bets total only $15 so that while some might say that you cannot count that return of bet a win, they would be wrong simply because you end up with more money than you started with.

    I use this method only after the point is established. Since about 65% of most established points are resolved within four to five rolls (either through a point conversion or a 7 out), it is a viable and inexpensive method to deal with the majority of play. When the table is cold and you have some confidence in the math, betting more $6 or $9 or more can result in some fairly nice returns with a minimum of actual $$$ risk.

    falcon
     
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  10. guido1, Jan 28, 2012

    guido1

    guido1 Member

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    Exactly.
    The mean or average for 6 rolls would be 1 but that is not the distribution.
    on average, 1 in 3 groups of 6 rolls will have no 7s rolled.
    on average, 1 in 5 groups of 6 rolls will have 2 or more 7s rolled. cool!
    A picture
    [​IMG]
    the numbers
    Code:
    x    prob[X=x]   prob[X<x]  prob[X>=x]  prob[X<=x]   prob[X>x]
    
    0    0.3348980   0.0000000   1.0000000   0.3348980   0.6651020
    1    0.4018776   0.3348980   0.6651020   0.7367755   0.2632245
    2    0.2009388   0.7367755   0.2632245   0.9377143   0.0622857
    3    0.0535837   0.9377143   0.0622857   0.9912980   0.0087020
    4    0.0080376   0.9912980   0.0087020   0.9993356   0.0006644
    5    0.0006430   0.9993356   0.0006644   0.9999786   0.0000214
    
    OK. The wait time for a 7 to roll in 5 rolls is ~60% or 6 in 10 7s roll, on average, within 5 rolls of the last 7 that rolled.
    [​IMG]
    The distribution of rolls once a point is established. Just because I have it.
    can't recall if this was from a sim or actual math.
    Looks to be about ~67% (2 out of 3) of all points are resolved by the 5th roll.

    I have and have seen a few others bet the 3 way 7 on a cold table and clean up. Have also seen a monster roll come out of many cold tables.That's gambling!
    Enjoy!
    [​IMG]
     
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  11. basicstrategy777, Jan 28, 2012

    basicstrategy777

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    Do the figures in the yellow chart show that the longer a 7 is not rolled, the greater the probability it will be rolled ?

    Or are there other charts for that and we can discount what the yellow chart says.


    77777777
     
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  12. guido1, Jan 28, 2012

    guido1

    guido1 Member

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    The values are only valid before the first roll of the dice for one success, that being a 7 to roll(or any bet with p = 1/6)
    It is actually easy to visualize in one's mind the moment a 7 does roll.
    Now what is the "wait time" in rolls until the next 7 rolls? It gives the probability of one event or the theoretical probability of the distribution of many events.
    Here is a pic of the wait time until 2 or 3 7s appear.
    The number of failures before 2 7s hit, the last trial being a 7.
    [​IMG]
    I will return tomorrow
     
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  13. kaysirtap, Jan 28, 2012

    kaysirtap

    kaysirtap Member

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    I think you are misunderstanding the calculation behind what people are telling you when they say that your winning bet itself cannot be counted towards your net profit. The reason your net win is $1 in your example is because of this:

    Proceeds from winning bet = +$15
    Two losing hopping 7's bet = -$2
    Previous losses = -$12
    TOTAL = +$1

    Yes, the total amount of your bets was $15, while you were $16 and down when your bet won. But just because your bets totaled $15 does not mean that you lost $15. If you were to "count that return of bet a win", then your calculations would show that your net win was $2 ($16 - $14)... which is incorrect. If you really want to consider money bet as money lost, then you would have to also consider it a win when you ask the dealer to take down your Place bets without having had a decision on them.
    I believe the chart in question has the following information:
    Column 1: Number of trials (throws)
    Column 2: Number of times a 7 won't be thrown
    Column 3: Chances of not throwing a 7 exactly the number of times shown in column 2, given the total number of throws shown in column 1. The other way you can say it is, the chances of ONLY ONE 7 being thrown given the number of throws shown in column 1.
    Column 4: Cumulative probability of throwing AT LEAST ONE 7 given the number of throws shown in column 1.
    Column 5: I'm not really sure about this column, but the numbers do match up to the chances of consecutively throwing all non-sevens the number of times shown in column 2.

    I'm sure guido1 will correct me on this.
     
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  14. basicstrategy777, Jan 28, 2012

    basicstrategy777

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    I was just half joking with the yellow column comment.....you know me and my 'due' stuff.

    777
     
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  15. Twelve4s, Jun 13, 2018

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

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    Can you make hop bets on Interblock Organic Craps machine?
     
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  16. Mssthis1, Jun 13, 2018

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    No hop bets on the Interblock. You can lay everything (box numbers) which is what I do on occasion. If you decide to do the math remember that if a horn number rolls you lose nothing on the lay bet. Hop 7 bets lose when a horn number rolls. House edge on the lay everything is 2.5% on the resolved bet only, slightly more on small bets like $1 because it'll round a 2.5 cent vig up to 3 cents on a $1, 4/10 lay bet.
     
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    Last edited: Jun 13, 2018
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