House Edge & Number Odds

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by BeastWolf, Jun 16, 2020.

  1. BeastWolf, Jun 16, 2020

    BeastWolf

    BeastWolf Member

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    People talk about the house edge all the time. This is really important because if I take a risk, based on the odds of that risk, I should get paid accordingly. Of course the PL odds is the only place where that happens. However, I was thinking about if it's really a good idea to take PL odds on the 4/10 or even the 5/9 because the odds success is pretty low. Shouldn't we think in terms of odds more than house edge? Any illumination is very helpful!
     
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  2. Night Attack, Jun 16, 2020

    Night Attack

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    It doesn't really matter as there is no house edge which means you will break even on the odds bet over the long term.

    Maybe consider odds betting based on your overall goal for the session along with your money management.
     
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  3. TDVegas, Jun 16, 2020

    TDVegas

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    There’s only 1 math reality. You are expected to break even on the odds bet. Doesn’t mean you will or won’t. Anything else on that topic is hope, luck, a feeling, a hunch.

    It’s a good bet...the only “even up” bet in the casino, even though you have to make a pass or don’t pass in conjunction.
     
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  4. DeMango, Jun 17, 2020

    DeMango

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    6&8 are not much worse in edge then the pass line, so don’t be shy to place them.
     
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  5. Chip Magnet, Jun 17, 2020

    Chip Magnet

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    There is no house edge on odds bets, but they increase variance, which causes the swings in your bankroll. The higher the odds, the greater the variance, and the greater the swings in your bankroll. You cannot win without variance, but odds on the 4 and 10 can take chunks from your bankroll before you see a winner. I always take odds, but rarely on the 4 or the 10.
     
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  6. TDVegas, Jun 17, 2020

    TDVegas

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    Correct. You don’t have to do full odds. You can go 1X (or less, assuming the wager meets table min.) if your concern is volatility of bank roll.

    Bankroll to betting levels is a big part of craps strategy.
     
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    Last edited: Jun 17, 2020
  7. basicstrategy777, Jun 17, 2020

    basicstrategy777

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    I love the 4 and 10....they come up as often as the 7.........they pay alot when they hit......and you lose the same as the 6 and 8 when they lose..........

    I love little joe and the throat tickler..........what are you going to do ....

    777.
     
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  8. The Midnight Skulker, Jun 17, 2020

    The Midnight Skulker

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    That depends on how important playing time is to you as compared to profit/loss. As Chip Magnet said taking/laying odds increases variance without increasing expected loss. Variance is your friend in a negative expectation game, hence the larger the variance the better your chances of reaching a win goal. Lamentably, there is a catch: the larger the variance the better your chances of hitting a loss limit over a session of equal duration. I can make only a very slight improvement to what TDVegas said: "[Balancing b]ankroll to betting levels is a big part of craps strategy."

    Goatcabin, a former active member of this forum, coined the phrase The Shape of Possible Futures to describe the distribution of all actual results a player might get from a session using a given betting strategy. The mean of this distribution -- the percentage of the total amount you bet during a session, or the actual amount, you are expected to win or lose -- is determined by the long term metric variously called "house edge/advantage", "expected loss/value", and the like. (By definition the mean is the point that divides the distribution in half.) What you have called "odds" -- more accurately labeled "probability of winning/losing" -- determines how tightly that distribution is packed around its mean. A distribution with high variance is more "spread out" than one with low variance.

    The mathematical concept known as The Law of Large Numbers holds that the longer you play the tighter the distribution becomes so that an infinitely long session has only one possible result: the value of the mean. Obviously, then, if this value is negative the player can't win. Not quite as obvious but equally true is that the player's best chance to come out ahead is to make the minimum number of bets necessary to attain his/her win goal. (For example, the best chance of doubling one's stake is to bet it all on a single bet with as close to a 50-50 chance of winning as possible.) Of course this is going to make for too short a session to satisfy the playing time desires of virtually everyone, a famous exception being Ashley Revell.

    In ~50 years playing this game I have seen a one-bet strategy used twice, once at Ramada Express in Laughlin and once at one of the houses in the wide spot on I-15 known as Primm. Both of these places are just across Nevada's state line from a neighbor state that did not have any casino gambling at the time, which suggests the players using this double-or-nothing strategy were either taking a parting shot to recover losses on the way home or lived in the neighboring state and wanted/needed money in a hurry, perhaps to take advantage of some other financial opportunity or avoid even bigger loss.
     
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  9. lone irish digit, Jun 17, 2020

    lone irish digit

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    This is Barney

    The GoatCabin personage still occasionally visit forum.

    What's even more incredible than the Ashley personage bet was the LID was playing the craps when the bet was made and he thought it hurt his concentrations very much and it pisses him off very much. He said he had to leave casino when that asshole Dick Dale and his band started playing real loud and he couldn't tell if his tosses were safe or not safe..
     
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  10. yacraps, Jun 17, 2020

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

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    ...two to one is too much fun I luv the 4 and 10 true odds ;)
     
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  11. von duck, Jun 17, 2020

    von duck

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    Would have been nice if you would have told us the outcome, of the two times. :confused:
     
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  12. KokomoJoe4, Jun 21, 2020

    KokomoJoe4

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    Placing or laying odds does NOT change the chances of your point showing. The four and ten are always a 2:1 underdog to seven out because there are three ways to roll these numbers and 6 ways to roll seven.

    Five and nine are 3:2 underdog because now chances are 4 in 10 the number will show before seven.

    Six and eight are 6:5 against because they can show 5 ways compared to six ways for seven.

    Use of odds does not change these expectations, where the Do player is always the underdog except during the come out roll. However, use of odds does increase variance, where we win more money when our number comes back and lose more when it doesn't.
     
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  13. Mssthis1, Jun 21, 2020

    Mssthis1

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    On the pass side I would rather have a 4 or 10 because 1 win offsets 2 losers not counting naturals.

    On the six/eight, one win and one loss only puts you a few dollars to the good. You are less likely to take your profit and run. You're more likely to stick around and risk more money, which is what the casino wants.

    For the same reason I lay less or no odds on the 4/10 on the dark side. If you lay odds it takes 2 winners on the 4/10 to offset one loser plus your flat is exposed to being a 2/1 dog more often.

    I'd rather see a 6 or 8 set as the point if I'm taking odds on the dark side. Variance is much lower.
     
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  14. yacraps, Jun 21, 2020

    yacraps

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    ...lol I remember one time I was on the don't and was the shooter...I'm the only one at the table 3 in the morningI roll the dice 4 comes up my base says to me that's a hard point to make you should be alright o_O...I look at the guy and in my mind I'm thinking shit take my money now and get the pain over with....13 or so rolls later 22 four hard :mad:
     
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  15. The Midnight Skulker, Jun 21, 2020

    The Midnight Skulker

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    Similar story; slightly different situation. I'm playing the wrong way, passing the dice, and doing OK. Time came to bet for the crew. My DC goes behind 10 and I lay single odds for me and single odds w/control for the crew. Base dealer says, "I like my chances." two or so rolls later: [6][4]. Dealer says, "[Multiple expletives deleted] piece of [more expletives deleted] dice!" I did manage to put some tokes on the rail during that session but I had to resort to stealth betting to do so.
     
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