How i have been playing lately. Thoughts?

Discussion in 'Beginner Zone' started by NewrollerFB, Aug 2, 2021.

  1. von duck, Aug 6, 2021

    von duck

    von duck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2017
    Messages:
    16,336
    Likes Received:
    3,239
    Gender:
    Male
    A lot of long rolls? How would you explaine that? In reality, your system does not require “long rolls”, as much as it does, winning the first bet. Two rolls is plenty, as long as the first one is a winner. What is the average number of rolls to reach a decision in a craps hand? The answer is 3.376. My data has the game in question running a little under that number. If you have more than doubled your money three straight times, you’re dodging bullets, that’s all. That’s how you win at this game. :)
     
    #21
  2. von duck, Aug 6, 2021

    von duck

    von duck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2017
    Messages:
    16,336
    Likes Received:
    3,239
    Gender:
    Male
    In reality, it matters NOT how big or small your losers are, as long as your winners add up to more than losers, very obviously. How long do you usually last on your fifty dollar buy-ins? :cool:
     
    #22
  3. Night Attack, Aug 6, 2021

    Night Attack

    Night Attack Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2014
    Messages:
    1,304
    Likes Received:
    1,807
    Gender:
    Male
    $50 DOLLARS? Man I don't have that sort of cash.
     
    #23
    yacraps likes this.
  4. Chip Magnet, Aug 6, 2021

    Chip Magnet

    Chip Magnet Member

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2017
    Messages:
    85
    Likes Received:
    73
    Gender:
    Male
    You won your big bets. I ran it again, using the 7,600 Midgley actual dice rolls.

    The average bet size for that strategy is $60. Flat betting the Place 6 and Place 8 for $60 each, lost $3,000, or 1.49% of the total amount wagered. Which is slightly better than the H.E.

    Betting the strategy for the same 7,600 rolls, lost $9,000, or 4.55% of the total amount wagered. The number of bets won and lost remained the same, but losses of the $120 bets, tripled the total amount lost over the same number of rolls.
     
    #24
    yacraps and NewrollerFB like this.
  5. KokomoJoe4, Aug 6, 2021

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2013
    Messages:
    6,562
    Likes Received:
    5,921
    There will ALWAYS be variability with a random process such as dice outcomes, whether these are obtained from the hand of a random roller or from the so-called DI.

    The higher the number of negative expectation wagers you have in process, the more you can expect to lose.

    As I see more simulations, I am liking my one bet at a time style of play all the more.

    Expect to lose, minimize the number of bets in action, understanding that ONE is as minimum as it gets, then take advantage of positive variance when it is occurring, which means nothing more than increasing the size of that one bet as long as it continues to hit.
     
    #25
    yacraps likes this.
  6. von duck, Aug 6, 2021

    von duck

    von duck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2017
    Messages:
    16,336
    Likes Received:
    3,239
    Gender:
    Male
    As good a strategy as any, better than most, but it might be a little bo-zzzzzzzzzzz.................
     
    #26
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2021
  7. DeMango, Aug 6, 2021

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2010
    Messages:
    6,289
    Likes Received:
    2,748
    Gender:
    Male
    36 rolls and down. Win $1400, lose $1440. Lose $40 on $2840 action. $40/2840 = .01408451
    Lets call it -1.41%
    Learn to toss the dice for better results.
     
    #27