inside vs. even numbers

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by basicstrategy777, Apr 25, 2011.

  1. basicstrategy777, Apr 25, 2011

    basicstrategy777

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    For midnite and/or goatcabin

    I have always felt that betting even numbers ( 6/8...4/10 ) was better i.e. made more money, than betting inside numbers ( 5/9...6/8 )

    Even number betting: buy the 4/10 for $25...and place the 6/8 for 30.

    Inside betting: place the 5/9 for $25....and place the 6/8 for 30.

    For our purposes, to keep it simple and not have you work too hard, we will discount breakpoints on the buy bets and when the vig is taken ( although this will affect HA ).

    So........based upon your calculations/simulations......what will make us the most money ?

    Thax.


    777
     
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  2. DeMango, Apr 26, 2011

    DeMango

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    In a random game, the one you play, HA and variance determines your everything. So to say ignore the breakpoints and ignore when the vig is taken and then ask what is the better bet, defies logic. But in any case buying the 4/10, vig on a win, is better than placing the 5/9. I think you need to visit the Wizard of Odds website and get the whole story.
     
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  3. The Midnight Skulker, Apr 28, 2011

    The Midnight Skulker

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    Your question makes no sense. Craps is a negative expectation game for the players, so absent precision shooting no betting strategy is expected to make any money. Of the strategies you give, betting the even numbers is expected to lose less per unit of time because the buy 4/10 bets will not be resolved as often, and therefore not be "taxed" by the HA as often, as the place 5/9 bets. I would also expect even number betting to outperform inside betting for precision shooters, assuming equal effectiveness at hitting the numbers and/or avoiding the seven, because the 4/10 pay better than the 5/9.
     
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  4. basicstrategy777, Apr 28, 2011

    basicstrategy777

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    It was a simple question, I thought.

    Would you feel better if I phrased it......which will lose less money ?

    I swear....sometimes with you math guys, the wheel's spinning, but the hamster's dead.


    777
     
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  5. DeMango, Apr 28, 2011

    DeMango

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    You cannot comprehend that you asked a stupid question? Can you fix stupid, hamster?

    I'm not a math guy, I'm a physics guy. Take care of the physics, the math is just an afterthought.
     
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  6. basicstrategy777, Apr 28, 2011

    basicstrategy777

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    I guess it is a tough one. A real brain teaser.

    Is that why you cannot answer it, Fandango.

    Inside or even numbers......very, very difficult.


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  7. idoc

    idoc Member

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    I think it is a good question. Do you loose less placing the 5 and 9 or buying the 4 and 10?
     
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  8. DeMango, Apr 29, 2011

    DeMango

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    #8
  9. basicstrategy777, Apr 29, 2011

    basicstrategy777

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    idoc.........the reason I posed this question is because everything you read says to bet inside but I know that even numbers are better in all respects i.e..........how much you win........how much you lose........and HA. And it looks even better when buys are made at breakpoints and favorable vig conditions exist ( when vig taken). The 4/10 beats the 5/9 in every way. Other than the math, there are other reasons to bet the 4/10, I believe.

    I wanted to have a math pro's lay it out ( 5/9 vs. 4/10 ) but they did not. All I got was criticicism for asking the question. That's OK....I'm a big boy.

    A good attorney never asks a question for which he does not know the answer. I'm not a lawyer but I knew the answer; I just wanted to open some eyes, generate some discussion, and have it substantiated by the math folks ( although simulations I have seen have shown this to be true).

    My efforts did not work ; maybe next time.


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  10. DeMango, Apr 29, 2011

    DeMango

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    Despite all the numbers that come from casino reports that testify that craps is a money making operation for the casinos, you ask the question "what will make us the most money?" Then we are to ignore breakage and vig, two of the most important factors in the math. Yup maybe next time you will ask a more intelligent question. Now I am going to hold my breath.....
     
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  11. basicstrategy777, Apr 30, 2011

    basicstrategy777

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    It is better to be understood, than be correct.

    777
     
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  12. Southern-Comfort, Apr 30, 2011

    Southern-Comfort

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    I don't understand. Does this mean Hitler was better than Bush?
     
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  13. $nakeEye$, Apr 30, 2011

    $nakeEye$

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    Junior - Yes !

    Senior - No !

    At least Hitler had half a brain - Junior apparently had all " Brown Matter ".
     
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  14. Hardeight, May 1, 2011

    Hardeight

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    I'll just put Bush in Saddam Husseins category
     
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  15. basicstrategy777, May 1, 2011

    basicstrategy777

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    I liked 'W' .

    He was the man for the times and you knew where he stood.

    I'm glad that Texan was there when they hit the towers. I can just imagine how Gore or Obama would have re-acted.

    It will be interesting to see how history rates him.



    777
     
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  16. yacraps, Jun 29, 2018

    yacraps

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    Aww the good ole days..;)
     
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  17. The Midnight Skulker, Jun 30, 2018

    The Midnight Skulker

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    And the beat goes on. Check out this blast from the past, and pay particular attention to the quote from The Before Time.
     
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  18. KokomoJoe4, Jul 1, 2018

    KokomoJoe4

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    I see that this question is from what I would call the Mesozoic era (before my time here).

    The trick to the game of craps can be divided into several important parts:

    (1) Be on numbers that show o_O ;) :).
    (2) Be paid as close to fairly as possible when you do win, and
    (3) Get winnings off the table before losing too much of them.

    We all know that nothing is paid fairly except the odds bet.

    Placing inside pays 1.167x the wager instead of the fair payment of 1.2x with either 5 or 10 ways to win vs. 6 ways to lose the one or two bets made. This amounts to -1.52% house edge on each wager.

    Placing odds pays 1.4x the wager vs. 1.5x fair, now with 4 or 8 ways to win vs. the 6 losers and a now much larger -4.0% HE. Buy these numbers instead of placing them requires that you put more money at risk. IF the vig is collected on the win instead of the bet, and IF you can stretch the amount wagered to a maximum amount with the same (and now much less than 5% vig), you can get a much "fairer" bet than the placed six or eight:

    Buy the 5 or 9 for $38: (4/10 x 56) - (6/10 x 38) / 38 = - 1.05% HE

    Unfortunately, you must hit the five or nine or you are out $76 instead of $10 if you have bet both of them.

    Edge against on the four and ten can be reduced from -6.67% on a place bet to as little as
    -0.855% on the buy: (3/9 x 77) - (6/9 x 39) / 39 = - 0.855%. Again the problem when the wrong number shows first - we lose either $39 or $78 instead of either $5 or $10.

    ..............In summary, be on numbers that show, and get off them all when the seven appears.
     
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