Is betting $88 inside or $128 across just a bad strategy (or whatever $$ you are comfortable with)?

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by AtGame7, Jul 4, 2013.

  1. AtGame7, Jul 4, 2013

    AtGame7

    AtGame7 Member

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    Seems like in my head I really like this strategy, but in reality the win/loss ratio just doesn't seem to be worth it. I used to be a line bettor only and would wait and wait while number after number rolled. A shooter would get congrats on a great roll because he threw so many numbers, but only made one point. Everyone else seemed to be picking up bets, pressing bets and making money while I pretty much broke even on one point and one loss.

    I decided I would join the action and starting playing $44/$88 Inside and sure enough it seems like it's been a long run of one or two numbers then 7-out for a small loss each roller. The last two trips it seems I've hit a wall where I got smacked three times in a row and four out of five times with an immediate 7-out. Ouch, roughly $350 in basically less than 10 rolls of the dice. Don't get me wrong, when that big roll comes along it's great fun to pick up bet after bet and press higher than you have been before, but just so many complete wipe outs recently.

    I'm wondering if my short term memory is clouding my thinking or if playing "inside" or "across" is just not a good strategy since you need three or four numbers just to get even.

    Thoughts on this are appreciated.
     
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  2. basicstrategy777, Jul 4, 2013

    basicstrategy777

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    There is nothing wrong with having all the numbers covered, and I think your game plan should call for you to eventually do so, as your odds of hitting a number is 66% on each roll of the dice.

    Your problem is you are doing a cannonball into the pool instead of sticking your toe in first. You must remeber,
    most hands are very short affairs. Develope a strategy that eases you into the game.

    If you must bet alot of numbers up front I suggest even numbers.....you can get back all your money with only 2 hits, if you regress on a 6/8 hit and say same bet on a 4/10 hit. From there you can place the 5/9 or go thru the come box.

    777
     
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  3. AtGame7, Jul 4, 2013

    AtGame7

    AtGame7 Member

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    Not sure what you mean by this.
     
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  4. basicstrategy777, Jul 4, 2013

    basicstrategy777

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    make a come bet instead of a place bet. You might not get the 5 or 9 on that roll, but so what, you probably will eventually if the hand progresses. In the mean time you are collecting.

    777
     
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  5. AtGame7, Jul 4, 2013

    AtGame7

    AtGame7 Member

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    OK, I have been thinking about this a bit today and just can't come up with a strategy that makes sense using the Come box to alleviate some risk. I just don't have the experience you guys have. What were you thinking?

    Here's the best I can come up with:

    Place the 5 and 9 for $10 each and go $20 in the come box. Immediate 7-out means I'm even. Whatever hits the Come bet travels and I do it again for $20. If the Come bet hits a number I have then I take down the original Place bet and have $20 on 5 or 9 which I would have pressed to anyway. I'm now paying $8 for the insurance since the $20 come bet pays $20 and not $28 like the Place bet would.

    This continues until I have 4 or 6 numbers covered. Once I have the numbers covered I want then I either play the Place bets as I normally would or if a Come bet hits replace it with a Place bet using profit.

    I hope that's not too confusing.

    What's your angle for this?
     
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  6. basicstrategy777, Jul 5, 2013

    basicstrategy777

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    Others here are experienced players and will have their own ideas on how to initiate play.

    My feeling is you must be very conservative when you initiate your hand as most hands are resolved within the first 4 rolls. A large outlay early can sink you early and is unnecessary. It is very difficult to come back from heavy losses early and it can make you play with scared money. Early losses are the kiss of death and it is hard to come back from the dead. Why do this ?

    You should develope an 'ease into the game strategy'. Personally, I qualify the shooter before I bet ; He must demonstrate to me he can win. A winning streak starts with the first win. Once he does this I make a PL bet. I parlay this bet if he rolls naturals. I cover the parlayed bet with a 3 way, from winnings. I will keep parlaying until he rolls a point.

    If he rolls a point on his first toss I will not take odds and will make come bets for 3 rolls with no odds. On the 5th roll I will put odds on all bets. I will continue to go thru the come box untill all point numbers are covered. I will than eventually replace all come bets with place bets and leave all bets as place bets. This senario , of course, assumes a longish hand. I will vary this alittle but the basic idea is there.

    Doing this will protect you up front and give you a chance to get in on a long hand. Bad things can happen, of course, but at least you are protected early.....are making low vig bets.....have a chance to follow the trend of the dice.....have a partial hedge when making the come bet......

    You can vary this any way you like, but my thinking is to do something that keeps you from getting knocked out early.

    There should be a reason for every move you make at the table. Have a good reason....have a good strategy.

    What is important to you, how you view things, will dictate your strategy. That's why they make chocolate and vanella.

    Keep reading, keep playing and your stategy will develope and evolve.

    777
     
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  7. DeMango, Jul 5, 2013

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    I had a similar problem. Real money loser. It's called $XX inside. So I headed off to the mountain top. Talked to God. He gave me some great advice. No, I will not share. He told me not to. Besides that you wouldn't believe him. I wouldn't at first. I wouldn't at second. Heck I didn't listen the third, fourth, fifth times. Anyway even though I am trying to follow the best advice, I can tell you one thing grasshopper: The right track will never be $XX inside. Bet on it!
     
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  8. PokerPlayer, Jul 5, 2013

    PokerPlayer

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    5/9 is 4%
    4/10 is 6.6%

    The house odds are too high.
     
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  9. DeMango, Jul 5, 2013

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    The man is asking about inside. How do you know he isn't buying the 5/9? Go play poker!
     
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  10. insanity3056, Jul 6, 2013

    insanity3056

    insanity3056 Member

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    i heard this alot in this forum. what does regress mean???
     
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  11. basicstrategy777, Jul 6, 2013

    basicstrategy777

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    You win more money and the vig is less on the 4/10 verses the 5/9 on buy bets. The vig is under 1% when it is taken on a win with the 4/10 buy.

    I like the 4/10 and you can score big quick if you get a string of them and you bet up.

    IMHO, the house edge is not the reason you lose at craps..........if there were no house edge, most players would be losers.

    I think betting inside is over-rated. I can definately see the 6/8......the 5/9 verses the 4/10 is a much closer call.

    REGRESS....means reducing your bet. e.g. you have an 18 dollar 6....the 6 hits...you tell the dealer "make the 6 look like 12" . You now have reduced your bet from 18 dollars to 12 dollars. If you had an 18 dollar 6 and an 18 dollar 8 and the 6 (or 8) hits.....you can tell the dealer..."make the 6 and 8 look like 12 each" . Note: the word "each" is a very important/helpful word and you should incorporate it as much as you can where appropriate. By making the above move you have won 21 dollars and have 24 dollars at risk; a chance to lose 3 dollars. You are still up on the 6/8 and most you can lose is 3 bucks. The words 'regress' and 'Off' are the 2 most powerful words in the game, and you hardly ever hear them at the table, IMHO.

    777

    777
     
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  12. idoc

    idoc Member

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    There are 36 dice combinations. If you look at the inside numbers, they make up 18 combinations all together. That's half of the possible dice combinations. Of course a 7 still has the best odd of showing but inside numbers cover a lot of combinations. So, for me betting inside numbers is a good strategy.

    I usually bet heavy on 6&8. So what I will do is put down $80 in chips and say "inside, 6&8 for 30". Then I usually press at least one unit when a number hits.

    I usually do not bet the pass line unless I am shooting. If the point becomes an inside number say "inside, 6&8 for 30, including the point"

    If the table is cold then reduce your bet to $44 or $22 inside or just bet the 6&8.

    I'm a big believer in progressive betting. I usually never regress or come down. If the roll progresses then bet the 4 & 10 and maybe 2$ c&e or 4$horn.
     
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  13. falcon, Jul 6, 2013

    falcon

    falcon Member

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    The "establishment" answers posted have two major flaws along with the basic concept using lots of $$ to cover all the numbers.

    First, and foremost is the fact that in order to make a profit on any given hand, one must hit at least five numbers prior to a 7 out, and then the profit is rather small in that the 7 out creates the loss of the totality of the original bet and the player is left with the difference. Unless the "run" of numbers is long, that profit is going to be at risk with the next short "run" hand(s) and converted into losses which are unrecoverable.

    Second, the "establishment's" play as shown above is to place $$$ on the 4,5,6,8,9, & 10, i.e. $64 across or more making a hit or two with a 7 out a loser a vast majority of the time.

    IMHO when posters talk "HA," "low vigs." or some other craps math fantasies, their antiquated thinking will almost always lead to multiple losses, lowered balance sheets, and quick exits from the table.

    Possible, workable, creative, and common sense solutions.

    1. Change the mindset from "leave the bets out until a 7 out" to a disciplined approach of two or three rolls and either "turn off" or bring down the bets. Three hits results in a minimum WIN of $42. The odds say that a 7 out will probably occur within the next couple of rolls. Or, bring down three of the bets and ride it out; you cannot lose that hand. Does it work all the time??? Of course not, but the premature 7 out is recoverable over the next few hands if this approach is practiced most often.

    2. Cover almost all the numbers at about 50% of the risk with a slightly lower return. After the point is established, Place bet any three numbers except the point and then hop the other two numbers with a $1 crap check. Example: The Point is 9: Place bet the 4,5, & 10 for $10 each and hop the EASY 6 & 8 for $2 each plus a $1 crap check. Total at risk is $35 instead of $64. Hitting the hopped Easy 6 or 8 will pay you $10; craps pays you $3; the 4/10 pays you $13 and the 5 pays you $9. A point conversion, hard 6/8, or 11 loses $5. Multiple hits will allow you to make adjustments if you choose.

    The down side to all this is that chances are you will not win thousands of $$$ per session, but you will win much more often.

    falcon

    p.s. DeMango, my friend, divine intervention might just be discipline and patience.
     
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  14. mycoalsmith, Jul 7, 2013

    mycoalsmith

    mycoalsmith Member

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    I'm usually a loser at the Craps table, so take my advice as you see fit.

    In the past year I've played Craps - it really depends on what rolls happen and when the 7 rears it's head. I've seen "whales" make all kinds of money by covering the numbers after the Come Out and adding chips to their rail as they win, and win, and win. At the same time, I've seen "whales" come up to the table, buy in, play the Pass Line and cover all the numbers after the Come Out roll and lose their money quickly.

    As has been said, it's usually better to "ease yourself into the water" instead of just jumping right in. After the Come Out (and you don't HAVE TO bet Pass or Don't Pass) put minimum bets on 1 or 2 numbers. With the first win, take your profit, and once you have won back your initial bet (or bets) and "playing with the casino's money) either start pressing your bets and with those wins place more bets, or with another win, put "the casino's money" on another number. Remember to take your profits every win or two so you are actually adding to your chip rail.
     
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  15. AtGame7, Jul 7, 2013

    AtGame7

    AtGame7 Member

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    I very much appreciate the time you took to type that post. I also appreciate the content. It seems like you and I think alike and I love the idea of trying #2 on your list above. It looks like (on first glance anyway) that it mitigates some risk (at the loss of some profit, but hey insurance ain't free) but still lets you get in on the big roll should it show up.

    I suppose I have just seen so many immediate 7-outs lately that it's clouding my thinking about the game altogether. I know someone of your experience has probably seen just about everything at the table so I have no need to make up a story to try and wow you with. I played the other night determined that I was gonna kill it with that big roll so I took enough to play $44 inside 10 times or $440 and was not going to waver from that strategy. It was a surreal feeling to see the first 6 shooters all 7-out on the first toss after setting the point. I know that is not a record, but it sure felt like it couldn't possibly happen again. Very very soon I was down to my last $60 and I was determined to try again, this time the shooter threw three times making a yo twice and a 6 once before 7-out. I picked up less than 10 bets the entire time and pressed nothing.

    I was honestly stunned. I looked at the $30 that was $440 and just shook my head. I threw the crew $20 (always tip, no matter what) and saved the $10 to get the car out of valet and tip the guy. Don't anyone worry that $440 will break me, it won't, I'm not loaded either so this was a significant hit to my bankroll though. That was my limit for the visit and I never hit the ATM when at the casino so off I went with my tail between my legs losing the night's play in about three dozen rolls of the dice. One of those nights when you leave contemplating the meaning of life. It's about 50 minutes to get home for me and that was a long 50 minutes.

    I'll be back, probably next week, but for the time being $44 inside can suck it.
     
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  16. DeMango, Jul 7, 2013

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    Ya know I can share one bit of thought on $XX inside. One more reason to abandon hope. (all ye who enter). Some of us actually (BS is not gonna believe this) think we may have some influence with the dice. Really. So as previous testimony goes, $xx inside, is a loser in the random world without regression. But I submit it is also a loser from the DI point of view. The reason is that if by any chance, the probabilities of 6/8 are increased, in all likelyhood the 5/9 is decreased. Well that's what usually happens according to my computer program (BoneTracker). Your mileage may vary but multiple bets are very problematical.

    Falcon: good to hear from you again, will be near to your favorite casino in about 8 days!
     
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  17. falcon, Jul 7, 2013

    falcon

    falcon Member

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    DM: July 15-18 @ the Beau; is that in your time frame?? If so, let me know, and I will provide you with my cell.

    I wonder if you might try this basic strat using $44 inside? It goes like this: Doey/Don't minimum @ Come out; after point established Place $44 inside or use the point plus the remainder inside; then Don't/O of $42 and let it go until resolution.

    Results: The negative: immediate point conversion = net loss of $30; immediate 7 out = net loss of $16 (point is 9). Otherwise, if the hits keep coming w/o pressing, lots of positive $$$. If you want to add some more action add $1 crap check on every toss. It gives you four more ways to win $7.

    Let me know about the dates.

    falcon
     
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  18. SevenOut, Jul 7, 2013

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    [quote author="AtGame7" date="1372971195"]Seems like in my head I really like this strategy, but in reality the win/loss ratio just doesn't seem to be worth it.
    Thoughts on this are appreciated.[/quote

    **********
    AtGame7. You have been given some good variations of Craps Strategy. My strategy is game tested and I do well with a lot of numbers thrown and can do no better than your game, except for one or two ideas. I and others have responded to what I call my "hit and run" strategy. You will find it in the Beginner and/or Advanced discussions.

    Your BANKROLL is your "time share" at the Craps Table. Time Share, I mean, is what time with your game can you last, one, two or more set ups and SEVEN OUT. Ouch... It happens. The set up your game, and some worthless non paying numbers for you and a Seven Out happens as well. Just the timing of your stepping up to the table.

    We have some VERY EXPERIENCED Craps players jumping on board with your question. There are no 100% right or wrong responses or set ups on, after or during the Come Out roll. These guys and Pam (she may jump in as well) can turn their games on and off when they think it is to their advantage. Getting their chips off the table or out of action, at times, can be too earlier (with a long roll of inside numbers) or too late with the Doey/Don't with Point or a delayed Seven Out. It is like being given game plans, but with experience and time using a particular game plan... they change things around on the cloth, add, subtract, temporary OFF, press or just plain call all their bets off the table and WATCH the OUTCOME.

    I am a Front Line Bettor and like the inside Point with the Inside Numbers covered and the Hard 6 & 8 are my sucker bets.

    With a 4 or 10 point, I place a minimum Place Bet on the 6 and 8 to back up the hard 6 & 8. I have explained these two games in detail under other Topics... so study them and practice it a bit.

    You will also find that the "Regular" experienced Craps players have made suggestions to MY game, as well. I am a bit shaky on Dice Control... but if I am winning at the table... it is great. I have no talent in this area so cannot even comment with experience.

    The MOST IMPORTANT aspect of the Craps Game is your BANKROLL and what amount you lay onto the felt after a losing game. The idea of Bankroll is not to go in and get kicked in the jewels and leave. The Bankroll is to keep you IN THE GAME when you walk up at the wrong time for your game and are losing. When you are WINNING, your Bankroll is not as critical. You can press up bets, take your winnings or just quit the game after a few hits and sit the rest of this game watching. The Bankroll keeps you in the game with the intent of catching the "world record beating Passes and number of rolls before a Seven Out". At least for me.

    To catch my breath and your eye strain... After you are winning... RUN out the door with your profits after the last roll that is NOT in YOUR FAVOR. The longer you play... you lose. You want to kick their jewels and RUN. They kick yours... and you walk slowly out wondering what hit you when you had been winning. Quitting takes control and the majority of Newbie players pay the rent at the Casino.

    Smart Craps players ask lots of questions and these Forum Players will hammer you on a mistaken game plan, or might even scratch their head and admit... "I will think about this one and it could work for me".
     
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  19. jbarr67, Jul 8, 2013

    jbarr67

    jbarr67 Member

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    If you are going to use either of these strategies use an early regression and then press it back up. I'm not a fan of the across strategy. I've used an inside regress/press strategy successfully many times. It will even work on a colder or choppy table as long as it isn't short rolling. As some have mentioned, a string of early 7's you will get battered fast.
     
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  20. The Midnight Skulker, Jul 10, 2013

    The Midnight Skulker

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    I couldn't a-said it any better meself! Well, maybe a little better, as I responded to AtGame7 on another thread. OK, maybe only a little more long-winded. My emphasis is on the implication: before you can make a rational decision as to what move(s) you want to make you have to know what it is you are trying to accomplish, what will give you the best chance of having a positive experience. I would venture to say that a vast majority of players have no idea what their goal is -- other than "to win".
     
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