Is it possible to win on any single bet that you make in the long run?

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by superrick, Nov 26, 2016.

  1. superrick, Nov 26, 2016

    superrick

    superrick Member

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    Is it possible to win on any single bet that you make in the long run? Casinos know that, in the short term, a player can win with short-term volatility, but if someone continues to gamble, it becomes more and more likely that the overall results cumulative will be a loss long-term predictability! So is that statement true?
     
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  2. TDVegas, Nov 26, 2016

    TDVegas

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    The sims indicate about ~5% of long term gamblers (10,000 gamblers X 1,000,000 rolls) can be net positive with a pass line bet with odds only.

    Not sure if the sims were run on simply a pass line bet only (no odds taken). I would assume it would be somewhere between 0% and 5% long term winners.

    Hardway bet sims indicated no player would be net positive (10,000 gamblers X 1,000,000 rolls)
     
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    Last edited: Nov 26, 2016
  3. $nakeEye$, Nov 26, 2016

    $nakeEye$

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    The " SIMS " are Random Number Generated by the computer - which do NOT factor in anything other than TOTAL RANDOMNESS -

    Consider that there are 5 types of shooters at your table :

    Shooter A : Schools or sets the dice to a preference then shakes them and tosses them haphazardly down the table -

    Shooter B : Accepts the dice as presented by the stick person then shakes and tosses them haphazardly to far end of table -

    Shooter C : Accepts the dice as presented by the stick person then tosses haphazardly to the far end of table -

    Shooter D : Accepts dice as presented by stick person then tosses in a controlled manner to a specific spot at the far end of the table -

    Shooter E : Arranges dice to specific orientation then tosses in a controlled manner to a specific spot at the far end of table.

    In ALL reality computer generated simulations of a random toss can ONLY duplicate tosses by Shooters A, B and C ; possibly Shooter D.

    Shooter E can NOT be factored in by the computer generated simulation because it is NOT random - as described by definition of the word !

    Comparing shooters A-C versus Shooter D and E is comparing apples to oranges -

    Somewhat similar - BUT - totally different !

    AGAIN - TDVegas - by YOUR ANSWER to SR's simple question - YOU go off on tangents about PL wagers and odds then HW bets -

    WHEN the simple truth of the matter is YOUR response is NOT germane to the question presented !

    YOU can NOT resist interjecting your LACK of knowledge into a subject that you possess LITTLE if ANY insight thereof !

    YOU can ONLY resort to referencing works performed by others - and your referenced works have virtually NO bearing on the subject !

    YOU are PATHETIC !

    ONLY TWELVE MORE STUPID POSTS and YOU attain the ASSHOLE of the CrapsForum.com lifetime award !

    You are at 7,988 presently !


    $...eE..$
     
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  4. $nakeEye$, Nov 26, 2016

    $nakeEye$

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    There are quite a few factors involved before that question can be answered intelligently !

    IF the shooter meets the criteria of Shooter E as described above - MY answer in an unqualified / resounding YES !

    IF the shooter meets the criteria of Shooter D as described above - MY answer is a qualified YES / Very , very Possible !

    IF the shooter meets the criteria of Shooter A,B or C as described above - MY answer is SOME times YES / MOST times NO !

    $...eE..$
     
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  5. TDVegas, Nov 26, 2016

    TDVegas

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    SR never indicated anything about skilled shooters, DI or any other A, B, C, D or E type shooter. It was a GENERIC question as presented!! Hence the answer to match.

    There is only ONE VALID way to answer his question...that would be thru a RNG simulator, unless he has other criteria. He stated none.

    Any other claim on long term winners would be considered nothing more than a personal opinion backed up with no evidence, no math....nuthin other than some gambler claiming "here's what I think".

    I cannot help it it you cannot provide any real data other than a song and dance. I can provide REAL data...back up by sims. If Rick has data on dice influencer E...let him state it.

    You have ZERO evidence on D or E shooters. You have ZERO sims. In effect, you have nothing to make any claim whatsoever....and certainly nothing credible.

    Nor could you even answer his question with any credible evidence to back it up....even if he acknowledged player A thru E.
     
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    Last edited: Nov 26, 2016
  6. $nakeEye$, Nov 27, 2016

    $nakeEye$

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    TD-

    In all honesty after reading your response I was going to go to bed and wait until the morning to reply -

    However, after thinking about and re-reading your silly response it became apparent to me that you are more stupid than I initially thought !

    Obviously, you lack imagination, actual insight of the game, experience at the table and are unable to think " outside the box " -

    While still fresh in my mind I just want to re-iterate to you that I have NO respect for YOUR theories / insights / knowledge of real craps !

    YOU are a " blowhard " who spews stuff / shit / ideas / anecdotes that you twist to your perceived advantage -

    However, you fail to remember - you are dealing with people who not only have been playing this game for quite some time -

    But also forgot more about the game than you presently or will ever know !

    You can quote statistics and mathematical formulas and odds and whatever else until the cows come home -

    But - what you lack is an understanding of the REAL workings of the game due to your inexperience playing it !

    You might have a handle on the " Bubble " - but you have ZERO inkling when it comes to the REAL GAME at the REAL TABLE !

    Perhaps if you spoke with your eyes and ears open and your mouth shut - you just might actually learn something beneficial to you !

    $...eE..$
     
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  7. TDVegas, Nov 27, 2016

    TDVegas

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    He's asking a fucking probability question...and he got an answer.

    What NUMBERS are you using to provide him with an answer?

    You have no clue on probability mathematics....and can't even give a credible answer to his question. A sim would be the only way to provide Rick with a credible, realistic answer.
     
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    Last edited: Nov 27, 2016
  8. DeMango, Nov 27, 2016

    DeMango

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    I'm thinking, at a certain part of the day, it's not worth arguing with a certain reptile, who may or may not be inebriated.
     
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  9. TDVegas, Nov 27, 2016

    TDVegas

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    I should heed your advice. My fault.
     
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  10. $nakeEye$, Nov 27, 2016

    $nakeEye$

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    YOU should heed MY advice -

    Speak when spoken to - AND - only speak about things YOU personally KNOW !

    But, then as I do not drive a hippie mobile - WTF do I know ? :eek:

    $...eE..$
     
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  11. $nakeEye$, Nov 27, 2016

    $nakeEye$

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    Isn't it past your bed time - or - did you sh^t the sheets, again ? :)

    $...eE..$
     
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  12. Dave G Ct, Nov 27, 2016

    Dave G Ct

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    DrMango woke out of a dream.A new Dice set- Yes another " Next Big Thingl!!
     
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  13. Onautopilot, Nov 27, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    Considering that the question involves the assumption that the dice are "fair".....yes. And can be proven through simulation.

    You can also establish the percentage of different bets that would be expected to end up a winner. As the HA increases on certain bets, the percentage of expected winners decreases for that bet. There is a point when the HA of a bet is at a certain level that the expectation of it being a long term winner approaches zero.

    Without any other considerations, the question is a "probabilities" exercise....theoretical. But it is supported to the point of a proof through simulation.

    But for all practical purposes, playing a negative expectation game, one can expect to be a loser if no bias advantage is considered.
     
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    Last edited: Nov 27, 2016
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  14. superrick, Nov 27, 2016

    superrick

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    Please post where you found that at otherwise it just one more of your Anecdotal Claims!
     
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  15. TDVegas, Nov 27, 2016

    TDVegas

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    Yes, it's considered anecdotal because I do not possess the calculations. betweenthelines (you have talked with him---tomp) discussed it here.

    Maybe you can ask him if he can get you the calc's or maybe he has more detailed information. Tomp is a very nice guy and I'm sure would be willing to share with you.

    I didn't present that data and tell you to just believe it. You can believe whatever you want. You can doubt whatever you want. No skin off my back.

    You asked a question. I answered based on what the simulations determined.

    The important question is do you know the answer to your question? If so, let's hear it and why.
     
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  16. TDVegas, Nov 27, 2016

    TDVegas

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    Without any real data (sims) showing otherwise that there could be long term winners...the expectations (without sims) are that no one should be a long term winner with any bet? Am I correct on this? Unless we introduce another variable noted below...?

    Then to concede there could be a winners...we must resort to luck or variance?
    Hence the sims show some winners with certain bets?

    Or further (voodoo:)) we would have to consider bias dice or influence?
     
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  17. Onautopilot, Nov 27, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    What one needs to remember, is that the game of craps is basically a "fair" game if one just considers the "numbers".

    It becomes a negative expectation game because the casino does not pay "fairly" on winning bets.
    Actually, the math allows for winners even with a negative expectation. It is just not a math friendly problem in most cases, it would come down to computing the actual odds of some cumulative event happening, and it is much easier to "prove" using simulations.

    You can only arrive at an "absolute" if one could compute it to infinity. But for a math problem, there is a point where it does become a "given"....a mathematical infinity so to speak.

    The actual computations are way beyond my capability, but the concepts are not that difficult to comprehend.
     
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  18. TDVegas, Nov 27, 2016

    TDVegas

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    With luck being the rationalization?
     
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  19. Onautopilot, Nov 27, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    Only in so much as you were "lucky" to be in the projected winner category and not in the 95% loser category.

    The category exists as a given, luck plays no part in that....it is for the most part a mathematical certainty.
     
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  20. TDVegas, Nov 27, 2016

    TDVegas

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    Yes, without getting into details. I noted that.
    Yes, absolutely.
    The expectation is a loss, long term. Yes, that is true. Note this is expectation and not necessarily what will or can happen.

    Then we get into other factors. Luck being one.

    This is where the sims becomes useful.
     
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