Is it really close to a flip of a coin?

Discussion in 'Beginner Zone' started by dustedone, Feb 3, 2021.

  1. dustedone, Feb 3, 2021

    dustedone

    dustedone Member

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    I have heard the statement that playing the LINE in craps(PASS/DON T PASS) is a even money, 50/50 chance of win/lose. And the profits are in the streaks of linked up winning/losing hands.

    I know there are data collector on this forum. I personally have a very small amount of SIM data, and can almost agree w/ this statement.

    of long term play, would this statement hold up?
     
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  2. MisterInside, Feb 4, 2021

    MisterInside

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    I don’t know what SIM data is, but I’ll give you my 10 cents. A lot of the other Forum members are far more versed on this than I am.

    You are correct. Both the Pass and Don’t Pass have an advantage for the house because of the “bar 12”.

    Pass line advantage for the house is 1.414%; the DP is 1.402%. Like you said, essentially a coin flip. You can lower those percents by taking advantage of the free odds, but you can never get an advantage over the house in total. Rules on the amount of odds you may wager vary by casino.

    Many of the Forum members believe that they can get the odds in the shooter’s favor by Dice Influencing. For example, if you could simply prevent a 6 roll on one of the dice, by proper rolling, you could swing the odds in your favor. Obviously, there are other factors that impact a roll. Table size, position, bounce, etc. It’s believed by many that practice can make a difference.

    For what it’s worth, here’s how I usually play. $5 pass with 3/4/5x odds plus $18 on 6 plus $18 on 8.
    Obviously, if the point is 6 or 8, I am not “placing” it. After 1 hit on the 6 or 8, I regress back to $6 on both 6&8. Then I alternate pressing 1 unit and collecting. If dice get hot, I expand my bets to 4/5/9/10 and amount of bets. I usually lose but my wife subsidizes me because she is the luckiest slot player in the hemisphere.

    Another favorite system involves the Martingale theory of doubling bets and eventually you can get ahead. Eventually table maximums can prevent doubling bets. If you flip a coin, sooner or later you will get 8 straight heads.Same principle. Besides you are gambling for fun, in other words, time spent playing. If your daily goal was to win $100 each day, you would get to that amount and quit until tomorrow. What do you do then? Go home and watch tv? Take the wife shopping? You want ACTION and enjoyment without losing your ass.

    I’d suggest goggling Wizard of Odds for stats and John Scarney’s Complete Book on Casino Gambling for a full explanation of the game. I hope that you get some feedback. There are a lot of sharp, opinionated guys on this site. No dummies here.

    Good luck!
     
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    Last edited: Feb 4, 2021
  3. basicstrategy777, Feb 4, 2021

    basicstrategy777

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    Flipping a coin is 50-50......this doesn't mean you will end up with the same number of heads as tails over the long term.............the difference after a milluion tosses are very likely significant..................math can provide answers regarding odds...probability...statistcs......and you can't argue with the math.........but you can use that math answer sheet to light up a montecristo # 2 at the craps table, as far as I'm concerned, as it will serve a better purpose...............your gut and luck will serve you much better than the math, IMHO.........I am confident there have been many noble prize math professors that lost their shirt at the craps table....

    If you started with 100 dollars and I started with 100 dollars and you played only PL and I played only DPL......in time we would both be broke because of the HA..............in this game, the only way to win is to quit when you are ahead..............

    777
     
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  4. von duck, Feb 4, 2021

    von duck

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    It is true that the math does nothing to make you a winner. If one plays the math, to the letter, then the math says DON'T PLAY!
    Just to put that "small" House edge in prospective. If a player took 100 units into the casino, and played only the pass line, one unit at a time, until doubling to 200 units, or going busted, how often would he double?
    Well, the answer is about 3% of the time, the other 97% of the time, he would go bust. Not too many people play this way, but this is just to show the effect of "cumulative odds". On average, it would take 7200 comeouts to finally lose your 100 units, to the H/E. It is more likely, that deviation will beat you, long before the house edge does. Deviation, is your more immediate enemy, when playing in a casino, but at the same time, your only means to a winner. (Barring some unusual talent). :cool:
     
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  5. KokomoJoe4, Feb 4, 2021

    KokomoJoe4

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    In 2004 when first breaking in my "new" system of play, which involved using only ONE line bet/odds, either Pass or Come, I was near but a bit below 50/50, wins vs. losses.

    When I became very anal about quitting when ahead, I managed to get slighlty over 0.500, and kept it there for a decently long period of time, even with a lot of this anal play, quitting as soon as I reached positive territory. But $5 to $50 wins don't do much for you.

    When I began to open things up on occasion, which for me is no more than an occasional buy bet, or possibly one Come in addition to a Pass, the win percentage slipped below 0.500, and has been there ever since.

    I have always believed that the math of the game defines the game, so try to play only one line bet, parlay all winners, and stay off odds when in this process. However, since my goals at play are really only (1) lose as little as possible and (2) win as much as possible, I like to try the very aggressive progression when the opportunity presents itself.

    This is the best compromise I have come up. Many would be bored to death with my play, but it works for me.
     
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  6. MisterInside, Feb 4, 2021

    MisterInside

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    Why stay off odds when it is the only casino bet when the house doesn’t have an edge?

    Now somebody can come back to me and say Main Street Station offers 20x odds, but you are only betting 5x. Why aren’t you taking advantage of all 20x? My honest answer would be that I don’t want to risk losing that much.
     
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  7. MisterInside, Feb 4, 2021

    MisterInside

    MisterInside Member

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    Interesting. What is the math to get the 3% answer? I’m not doubting you. I am just curious. I would have thought that it would be higher. I imagine that is a typical expectation. I had statistics and probability damn near 50 years ago and don’t remember much of it.
     
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  8. von duck, Feb 4, 2021

    von duck

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    The numbers, I'm quoting, are out a book by Alen Wilson, The Casino Gamblers Guide. I would think you could use the formula for "risk of ruin", and get an answer. I believe the 3% is pretty damned accurate, by my experience. :cool: Go to wizard of Vegas, and plug the aforementioned scenario into the risk of ruin formula, and get back with us on the answer.
     
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  9. KokomoJoe4, Feb 4, 2021

    KokomoJoe4

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    I would play 20x or 100x odds if available, but NOT at the start of play. Why? I am a cheapskate, not willing to risk 10 flat/ 200 odds first roll, simply because I choose to play with a $300 buy-in. OK, $500 when I take a bunch of cash when on vacation.

    My play and I think everyone's play should involve maximizing bets as you win, not right out of the gate.

    MI, I'm surprised you don't like my correct use of come out winners, which involves letting them ride for as long as they come, but then letting the enlarged flat bet sit without odds to decision.

    Hell I figured this out on my own years ago - the come out roll is the only roll that my line bet is favored over the house. Let it ride as many times as you see a natural. Since this line bet is now, with only one natural, 2x the money placed, 1/2 placed by me. half by the house. If it now hits the established point, I have a 4x winner while risking only x.

    When I got Grafstein's book several years ago, I was pleased to see him call this "the best bet on the table." I patted myself on the back thinking, you ain't no dummy.
     
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  10. basicstrategy777, Feb 5, 2021

    basicstrategy777

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    I parlay my line bet as well.......when the red apartment building gets high, I will hedge with a 3 way craps......I win on 2, 3, 12, 11, 7, the point......many ways.

    I agree with koko....parlaying the PL is a great way to play....really good for many reasons.

    777
     
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  11. von duck, Feb 5, 2021

    von duck

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    If i offered you a million to one payoff, on a bet that had a 1 in a million chance of winning, would you feel that this was a "good" bet? The odds are actually a little in your favor. The problem with this bet, and the odds bet to some degree, is that they are difficult to hit. You could play a million to one shot, your entire life, and never hit it. My best guess is, that the casinos MAKE money on the odds bet, one way or another. Why offer 20 or 100X odds, if you figure to make no money on the bet? By the math, it's a break even bet, but I'll just bet, that in reality its NOT. :cool:
     
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  12. KokomoJoe4, Feb 5, 2021

    KokomoJoe4

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    This defines variance Baron, and since players taking odds greatly outnumber those laying them, the great majority of craps players who use odds use them as underdog.

    As such, you may very well be right. On the other hand, those laying odds as favorite might be expected to be ahead of expectation.

    However, over the L O N G haul, and considering the totality of all odds used, the Central Limit Theorem predicts that the odds bet will break even. I am not fighting the math, you?
     
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  13. von duck, Feb 5, 2021

    von duck

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    I'm aware of the math, having this as a break even bet. This is calculated upon certain assumptions being true, that don't necessarily have to be true. Also, there may be more to it, than just the math. In many casinos, the dealers put the "hard-sell" on the odds bet. I'm sure this is because they are encouraged by the casino, to do so. Why hard-sell, a break even bet? :confused: Might be more to this bet, than just the math. I'd be very leery of a casino, that offers 100X odds. Seems like too much risk, for a bet that makes NO money. I mean what the hell, we'll let you bet 20X odds, for 0% edge, but we won't pay the 12 triple in the field, for a 2.8% edge? No, there is more to this, than just the math. :cool:
     
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    Last edited: Feb 6, 2021
  14. MisterInside, Feb 6, 2021

    MisterInside

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    I don’t understand what you are saying about “come out winners”. It seems to be over my head. Perhaps if explain it to me, as if I were a 10 year old, I might be able to grasp it. Please? Thanks.
     
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  15. Night Attack, Feb 6, 2021

    Night Attack

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    You're just over thinking it.

    It's just a natural winner on the come out roll.
     
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  16. von duck, Feb 6, 2021

    von duck

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    I went to the wizard sight, and ran the calculation through their craps risk of ruin calculator. The way it is set-up you have to run it backwards, and figure the risk of ruin for the house. Also only the loss limit could be input, and not a win limit. By my input numbers the ROR for the house was 5% but that was to win forever, so it might be closer to the 3% if only $100 is involved. Also, I wasn't sure what to input for standard deviation so I used 1.41, the square root of 2. In any case, "grinding it out" doesn't help your chances of winning. :cool:
     
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  17. yacraps, Feb 6, 2021

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

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    ...is that the bet where you buy the odds ?
     
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  18. MisterInside, Feb 6, 2021

    MisterInside

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    I’m a very slow learner about many things. I am the object of ridicule on the Dr Rick commercials too.
     
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  19. MisterInside, Feb 6, 2021

    MisterInside

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    Now that's a helpful and accurate comment. I overthink things a lot.

    Here's my confusion....KOKO says "...involves letting them (come bets) ride for as long as they come, but letting the enlarged bet set without odds to decision."

    "Letting them ride for as long as they come" Doesn't that mean continual pressing without ever collecting? How can you ever win if you never collect?

    "Letting the enlarged bet without odds to decision" Doesn't that mean that you never buy odds on the come bet and you simply let your come bet ride? Your come bet is now at a disadvantage because you will only collect even money and a seven is more likely to be rolled.

    Let's use an example. I bet $5 come. The next 5 rolls are 6-6-6-6-7. On the fifth roll, I will collect $5 on the 7 but lose the the $75 that I have on my four 6 bets. First 6 became $40; Second 2 became $20; Third 6 became $10; Fourth 6 stayed $5.

    There are a lot of questions there. Obviously, I am still missing something.

    PS- von Duck.....Stay the fuck out of this unless you can contribute something positive.
     
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  20. yacraps, Feb 6, 2021

    yacraps

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    yeah I cant miss with such a great teacher as you...I think I'll go to the casino today after I cash in some of the GOLD that I have mined from my salt water bath
     
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