Laying the Fire Bet number

Discussion in 'Prop Bets & Side Bets' started by siik2nr, Oct 20, 2011.

  1. siik2nr, Oct 20, 2011

    siik2nr

    siik2nr Member

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    If I have $5 or $10 on the fire bet and the 4th point is established..... If it hits I'm guaranteed either $200 or $400。 however,if it doesn't hit I win nothing on the bet.

    So what about the Lay bet on the 4th point? Perhaps for 1/3rd to half of the amount of the guaranteed fire payout. This way I'm guaranteed payout regardless if the fire number is hit. It just needs to be established.

    If it hits.... I lose the Lay but win the fire. Then the same for the 5th point and 6th point if the opportunity comes around.

    I did this 3 times last week and won the Lay each time n the Fire did not hit but I won the lay.

    Anyone else Lay the fire number?
     
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  2. idoc

    idoc Member

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    Interesting strategy... Looks like a win-win. I guess if I used this play, I would also take down my other bets and just Lay the point. Or Lay the 4 and/or 10.
     
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  3. siik2nr, Oct 21, 2011

    siik2nr

    siik2nr Member

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    With the fire bet paying out such high odds, it makes sense to me to take a guaranteed cut regardless of how small instead of the all or nothing mentality. I suppose the same goes for parlaying.
     
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  4. idoc

    idoc Member

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    Would anyone else like to comment on this strategy? bek, Midnight, 777, $nake, SC, 7-11...

    I'd like to here how others would play the 5th point and the 6th point. Do you think laying the point or the 4/10 would be a better strategy? Also, would you take your other bets down?
     
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  5. kaysirtap, Nov 18, 2011

    kaysirtap

    kaysirtap Member

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    Interesting idea. I don't understand why anyone would want to place a wager on the bet that replaced the Any Seven as the worst bet on the table... but aside from that...

    If we were at a Roulette table and I said to you, I'd give you 1000 to 1 odds if red spins 15 times in a row, you might not take that bet. However, if red already spun 14 times in a row, and I offered you the same bet before the 15th spin (counting the previous 14 spins), you would take that bet in a heartbeat, wouldn't you? Why? Because regardless of what's already happened, you have almost a 50% chance of winning a bet at a payoff of 1000:1.

    Now the Fire Bet... Once the fourth point has been established, you can throw out all of your previous calculations of house edge, because the payout is now based on that one point being made. Let's pretend the point was 4. You're now getting (according to your post) 40 to 1 on a bet that should pay 2 to 1 (true odds). Sure, you could lay $153 no 4, but since this bet has a house edge, you're just cutting into a payout that's already in your favor.

    And if you think laying that 4th Fire Bet number is a "can't lose" situation... just think about taking insurance in Blackjack when you have Blackjack and the dealer is showing an ace (also called taking even money). Yes, you will be guaranteed a payout of 1:1 on your bet, but this does not mean that it's a good choice. You're better off holding out for the 3:2 and hoping the dealer doesn't have Blackjack also... and in the case of the Fire Bet, if you're determined to bet it and you've gotten as far as establishing the fourth point, there is no sense in hedging it.

    I give a thumbs-down to laying the Fire Bet number.
     
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  6. Southern-Comfort, Nov 18, 2011

    Southern-Comfort

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    I really wouldn't be able to give an idea on this, I only use firebet as a way to "tip" dealers. They really get into the game with a $5 firebet on their side and three points already made.
    But your idea sounds pretty good, if you lose the firebet, you win the lay bet and vice-versa. Sounds solid on the rare occaision that it gets to that point.
     
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  7. idoc

    idoc Member

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    The 5th number is 4.
    1$ Fire Bet pays 250:1 for 5 numbers.
    If 4 is rolled then I win $250 plus my line bet.
    If 7 is rolled then I win ZERO. (No Lay bet)

    BUT

    If I lay 100$ on the point of 4, then...
    If 4 is rolled then I win $250 plus my line bet minus $100 (or 102 if you include the vig) for my lay bet. Therefore I win at least $150 plus my line bet.
    If 7 is rolled then I win $50 for the Lay bet.
    Win-Win. $150 plus Line bet OR $50.

    I guess if I was in this situation I would consider Laying equal to what I had on the pass line as long as it wasn't more that $250.
    So if I had 10 on the line and 50 odds I might lay 50 or 60$.

    So next question: If you use this strategy... do you take down all your other bets and save the odds OR do you keep them up?

    Hmm...
     
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  8. idoc

    idoc Member

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    I see a mistake on my last post. Give me a min. :roll:
     
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  9. kaysirtap, Nov 18, 2011

    kaysirtap

    kaysirtap Member

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    I don't understand why I was quoted in this post. This does not contradict or invalidate what I said before. Maybe numbers this time...

    First, let's have some constants. We'll use idoc's situation. In each of the following situations, the 4 has been established as the 5th Fire Bet point number. There is $1 bet on the Fire Bet, and the payout for 5 numbers is 250:1 (no payout for 4 numbers, as this is constant throughout all situations, no matter what it actually pays). Also, I think we can all agree that when the point is 4, the point will be successfully made 3 out of 9 possible decisions, and will seven-out 6 out of 9 possible decisions. Now... we'll run each situation 9 times, once for each possible decision on the 4.

    If we want this so-called "win-win" situation with a higher payout when making the Fire Bet number:
    Lay $51 no-4. (Fire Bet win = $250 (Fire Bet Win)-$51 (Lay bet Loss) = $199, Seven-out win = $25(Lay bet Win) - $1(Fire Bet Loss) - $1(Vig - paid either before or after) = $23)
    After 9 decisions, we have won $735. (3 x $199 + 6 x $23)

    If we want this so-called "win-win" situation with approximately equal amounts when making the Fire Bet number or a seven-out:
    Lay $172 no-4. (Fire Bet win = $250-$172 = $78, Seven-out win = $84-$1-$4(Vig) = $79)
    After 9 decisions, we have won $708. (3 x $78 + 6 x $79)

    If we want this so-called "win-win" situation with a higher payout when there's a seven-out:
    Lay $246 no-4. (Fire Bet win = $250-$246 = $4, Seven-out win = $120-$1-$6(Vig) = $113)
    After 9 decisions, we have won $690. (3 x $4 + 6 x $113)

    I think you can see where I'm going with this... the more you put on the Lay bet, the less your overall payout will be in the long run (because of the vig)... now imagine if you were not to bet the Lay bet at all....

    Lay $0 (Fire Bet win = $250)
    After 9 decisions, we have won $744

    Once again, I give a thumbs-down to laying the Fire Bet number.
     
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  10. basicstrategy777, Nov 18, 2011

    basicstrategy777

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    They call you butter....cause you are on a roll.

    You ride that horse till it drops.

    You hit it, you have a story to tell.....you hedge and you are kissing your sister. You don't want to kiss your sister...you want to kiss "Candy Barr". ( dating myself)

    It's not as much fun....you act like a pussy.....you don't win as much.

    Go for it !!!!


    That's what I think. ( my math OK ? )


    777
     
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  11. eagledice, Nov 18, 2011

    eagledice

    eagledice Member

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    If I am the shooter ( I do set the dice ) I never lay the appropriate needed point.

    I have hit 5 points of the Firebet 3 times, set the 6th each time of the 5 firebet hits, but I never did make it. The first 2 times after setting the 6th did a short roll and seven out (PSO). The last time tossed 6 or 7 times before the 7 showed. Funny, that needed final point was a 6. Just not there, although the 7 was a 5,2 which I did think was a 4,2 which did make the heart skip a few beats, but not to be...................yet....

    To me mentally, if I am taking a 6th point lay, I have now taken myself out of the zone, as I am not good enough, and feel that the 6th point is unattainable. I just can't do it. I know financially it may pay better, but my personal experience is not to do it. By the way, when I did set and make 5 points of the firebet, 2 out the 3 times, I had hit and made multiple points before setting the 6th point before the 7 out showed.

    Just can't do it.........


    Eagledice
     
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  12. idoc

    idoc Member

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    Sorry, but I was not trying to invalidate what you said. I was just giving my perspective on your scenario. I dont dispute your math. IMHO I would want to be in the win-win situation.

    This is the way I see it... If the fire bet hits 5# that's 250:1. I've only risked 1$ and getting 250$ Cha-Ching!!!
    So would I be happy if it was just 200$? "Hell yea!".
    150$? "You bet-cha!".
    100$ "I'll take it!"

    If I could guarantee you 50$ (or at least 48$) for 1$ would you take it? That's what I ask myself.

    I really feel Laying the point = or < your Pass Line wager when you are looking at #5 or #6 is an acceptable strategy. Of course I may change my opinion latter on... but we'll see.



    btw: I'm glad to see the replies. 777 I like your style. :cheese:
     
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  13. kaysirtap, Nov 18, 2011

    kaysirtap

    kaysirtap Member

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    This makes absolute sense. It is important to enjoy yourself in a casino, and the more frequently you win, the more I'm sure you will enjoy yourself. Additionally, if you're okay with losing the vig, taking the "sure win" is a decent way to go. Personally, I'm not okay with losing the vig in this situation.
     
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  14. siik2nr, Nov 18, 2011

    siik2nr

    siik2nr Member

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    Thanks for the calculations...

    I recently had $10 fire bet and already hit the 4th point and was on the 8 for the fifth point. The 8 hits pays 250 to one. Laying the 6 and 8 is much better than laying the 4 and 10 because of the odds u have to put up. More to win less. But with the 6 and 8 its much closer.

    I layed $600 on the 8 and eventually 7'd out. I collected my 4 point fire. 10x25 plus my 600 dollar lay.

    If you think its stupid to lay the fire number then u need to really think again. If it was a sucker bet... The casinos would offer it to you once the fire was possible.. But they dont. They would rather pay all or nothing when in the situation... Than pay out everytime in that situation.

    Trust me.... Casinos dont want you to lay if you are one the fire. Especially when your on the 6th point.

    If u were in the situation a lot... Of course you wouldnt lay. But since its not often, its smart to take the money.
     
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  15. kaysirtap, Nov 18, 2011

    kaysirtap

    kaysirtap Member

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    I can certainly understand this in terms of how much you need to put up. If the point is 4 or 10 and you simply don't have the money to hedge the amount you'd like, you'd have a bit of a problem. As far as being much better - the amount you lose in the long run still adds up to the vig you pay, no matter which point it is.
    First of all, I haven't seen anybody say that this "sure win" is stupid or a sucker bet, just as nobody is saying that a Lay bet is a sucker bet... as they are the same thing in this situation. Secondly, casinos always offer Lay bets. Why do you think they don't offer it to you? Do you mean that they don't try to entice you to bet it? I don't know... but whenever I see someone making a Buy bet on the 4, I don't see the "casino" offering them a Lay bet on the 4 also. Does that mean buying and laying the same number is not a sucker bet? I'm not saying this "sure win" is a sucker bet, but if it were a sucker bet, this does not mean the casino would "offer" it to you.
    Are you sure about this? Casinos would rather have a steady income than a highly volatile one. Table limits, among other reasons, are set to control losses so that the casino does not experience an undesirable loss from unusually high bets/payouts. Additionally, considering the fact that the Lay bet generally increases the money coming into the casino, I can say confidently that the casino would rather pay out every time in that situation.

    You lost me here... if you didn't think you'd be in this situation a lot, then why are you betting the Fire Bet? Surely, you don't think (using odds given in this thread) that at least 1 in every 40 shooters makes 4 different points? ... or that at least 1 in 250 shooters makes 5 different points? It seems to me that if you are betting the Fire Bet, you want to be in this situation a lot, and therefore according to your statement, you wouldn't lay.
     
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  16. JHPA

    JHPA Member

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    About a month ago I rolled 6 points on the fire bet. I was on it for $5 and $1 for the dealers so we had a nice win to celebrate. Oddly, I was the only person at the table on the fire bet - I will never understand it....It is certainly worth a $1 flyer at least and I will never play at a table with a fire bet unless I put at least $1 on it.

    I always play the same progression - $10 pass, 1 time odds, place two numbers and go up a unit after each hit. As each point is made, place a third, then a fourth number. I only made seven points - made the 9 twice and two of the points were buckshots. Interestingly I made the hardest numbers first and saved the 6 and 8 for last. Once I made the fourth number I did start increasing my odds and throwing out nickle hardways bets. But I made the points so quickly I did not really add a lot to my bankroll. The dealer told me my entire roll lasted only about 20 minutes and there was a lot of slowness with 6 people playing on my end of the table. Other than the $5000 win (cut to $3600 with taxes deducted) I really won almost nothing on my roll.

    When I made the fifth point I immediately set the final point - an eight. I took $300 and layed the eight - the only green chips in my rack. I would have won $200 (I think) minus commission plus received my $300 back. On my third roll I hit a hard eight (with $5 on the hardway) and threetimes odds. So I lost the $250 but won the $5000. No complaints from me.

    I took a photo after I made the sixth number. I had no more than $15 on the 5 and 9, the four was bought for $30 and the 6 had $42. There was nothing on the 10. So since I started with $10 /$12 and went up a unit after a win, you can see I did not throw that many numbers between points - probably less than 15. That is why - since I lost the $250 hedge bet - I made virtually no money other than the $5000. I do recall throwing more than the usual amount of crap and hitting a couple hi-lo-yo bets on the comeout. So 14 throws to set and make 7 numbers (I made the 9 twice) plus 15 throws for the other place bets I won and then maybe 10 craps throws, I probable threw the dice between 40 and 50 times

    But afterwards I was talking to the pit boss. He advised me that laying the 6 or 8 is not a good hedge against the 6th point of a firebet because the likelihood of rolling the 8 is almost the same as rolling a seven. I never thought about it long enough to do the math. I always just told myself if I was ever in this position I would lay the last point.

    I realy am not sure I would hedge again. I would not hedge the fourth or fifth point. I am after a big win at a casino - a couple hundred is not what I consider big wins. A couple of thousand is. So once I have five numbers in the bank, it might be worth it.
     
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  17. JHPA

    JHPA Member

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    I was at Parx....Parx east to be specific. :lol:
     
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  18. The Midnight Skulker, Nov 23, 2011

    The Midnight Skulker

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    My "local" (a 2.25-hour drive from home one way) casino, the only one I have been able to visit, and only once each this year and last, does not offer the Fire Bet, so I have not had this decision to make. Nevertheless, like Southern-Comfort I doubt I would make this bet since the house advantage on it, according the The Wizard of Odds, is 24.7%. (I should note, however, that his pay table is 10, 200, and 2000 to 1 for 4, 5, and all 6 points respectively. The house advantage will of course be less if these payouts are low, as other posters seem to indicate.) OTOH I have been specifically asked to comment.
    As kaysirtap demonstrated, hedging the fire bet with a lay bet against points after three have been made decreases the expected value of the bet, but expected value is not all that we are dealing with. First and foremost the situation under discussion, to lay or not to lay the fourth, fifth, and sixth points will arise only a little over 1% of the time, again according to The Wiz. Just off the top of my head I'd guess that's once every four hours on average. Consequently, I might well be reluctant to reach such a rare plateau, establishing the fourth point, only to risk having nothing to show for it, which argues for the hedge. OTOH the payoff for four points, even if 40:1, is not all that great, which argues against hedging the fourth point since presumably I made the bet for its bonanza potential. Sitting at home at my computer I do not think I would make the lay bet; at the table I might think otherwise.

    What about the fifth and sixth points? Well, I already have a winner (for four points) without the hedge, so I am going to get paid something even if those points miss. Depending on the difference between the five- and six-point payoffs I might think about hedging part of that, but I do not think the difference between the four- and five-point payoffs could be great enough to get me to hedge it.
     
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  19. moldoveanu, Jul 16, 2012

    moldoveanu

    moldoveanu Member

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    i really want to play these fire bets!

    one thing that i want to add dont listen to nobody about not hedging! because

    1) if you do not hedge the fire bet you know what happens 7 comes out and u lose ur money! which u should have at least won something from hedging

    2) if u hedge the bet try and ask people for thier money if u do not have enough money tell them to give u some money and once u win u give them back + some

    i am not talking about some chump change if u have some big money on fire bet that will give u a nice pay out of at least 1000$ then do it

    ALWAYS hedge ur bets no matter what u want to get even or win something rather then lose everything!
     
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  20. jason1981, Jun 4, 2013

    jason1981

    jason1981 Member

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    This is a good strategy, but the 4 point payout to me is not significant enough payout to lay and would chop more into my earnings on the 5th or 6th if hit...but a 5th or 6th point in my opinion you are a fool if you don't lay it...I mean the point of gambling is to win money, and if you have a way to cut in half the money won for a sure thing this is the right play every time..
     
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