Lessons You Have Learned so far....

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by Hardeight, Feb 6, 2011.

  1. Hardeight, Feb 6, 2011

    Hardeight

    Hardeight Member

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    1.Never visit the same casino the same day twice because you will lose it all

    2.You cant judge a shooter by its cover.The two five point fire bets I have witnessed are by the nerdy looking type.I'm still more likely to bet against older people so I need to find old folks casinos.

    3.Always shoot after the cocktail waitress leaves and dont flirt with the dealers as well

    4.Keep your eyes on the dealers
     
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  2. Hardeight, Feb 7, 2011

    Hardeight

    Hardeight Member

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    When a shooter changes dice he will usually seven out within five rolls.The other day this guy hit three of his numbers and decides to change the dice and the whole table was in shock of course he sevened out in 5 rolls afterwards
     
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  3. sporty, Feb 8, 2011

    sporty

    sporty Member

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    If the dice hit the floor, you roll no more. Turn'em all off after the dice go off the table.
     
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  4. jeremiahj, Feb 8, 2011

    jeremiahj

    jeremiahj Member

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    I've learned how to play for cheap! Instead of putting a passline bet with hefty odds on every shooter; just wait for them to make a point and put 5 or 6 dollars (depending on the point) on the line between the normal passline and odds bet, it is like placing it and you're only risking 5 or 6 bucks.
     
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  5. goatcabin, Feb 9, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    Most of these "things learned", in my view, are just a bunch of ridiculous superstitions.

    Jeremiahj, why not just make a $5 passline bet in the first place? Or make a $6 place bet on 6 or 8? You don't have to take "hefty" odds on any shooter.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
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  6. jeremiahj, Feb 9, 2011

    jeremiahj

    jeremiahj Member

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    Hi Alan! Well I used to make a passline bet with max odds at the casino I play at (3x), but most people seem to 7 out so I'd run out on bank roll pretty quickly. I also noticed frontline wins seem to be pretty rare as well. So this way I can bring positive energy to the table by betting right, with less money, and making more for my buck. I did this the last trip to Michigan once, and there was only one instance in my whole weekend stay where I missed out on 3 front line winner 7's in a row. ;).
     
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  7. goatcabin, Feb 9, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    Everyone sevens out. Your own experience is no indication of what will happen the next time you play. If you are busting quickly, you are betting too much, relative to your bankroll. Why start at triple odds? Just because they offer triple doesn't mean you can bet single odds.

    Here again, one's own experience is not a good predictor of future results, because a) you have only a vague recollection and b) even if you kept actual track, it's too small a sample to be meaningful. The truth is, you can expect 1/3 of pass/come decisions to be resolved on the comeout, 2/3 of those to be wins, 1/3 losses.

    It's only less money if you're comparing it to taking 3X odds. If you're going to compare bets, you need to compare them for "commensurate risk". What you're describing is called, I believe, placing the point. It's just a place bet, $5 on outside and $6 on 6 or 8, right? If you just bet $5 on the pass line and don't take any odds, your risk is about the same. There's not much difference between a $5 passline bet and a $6 place 6, expected losses of $.07 and $.09. However, the $5 place bet on 5/9 has an ev of -$.20 and on 4/10 it's -$.33. You can buy those numbers more cheaply at higher bet levels, but then you are risking more.

    For myself, I am not going to make bets with 4% and 6.67% HA's part of my usual spread.

    With place bets, there is always the temptation to bet more than one number. It's very seductive to have more ways to win than to lose. There's the old Iron Cross that gives you some win on any number rolled except seven, which loses all the other bets. 30 ways to win and just 6 to lose, what could be better? These people have only the vaguest understanding of the fact that all those bets are really independent, and each one has its own expected loss, i.e. you are PAYING the casino for every one of those bets.

    To illustrate the idea of "commensurate risk", I ran a couple of WinCraps sims, with these conditions:

    $100 bankroll
    maximum of 200-roll sessions (resolve any outstanding passline bet)
    10,000 sessions run
    same RNG seed both sims

    In one, the bettor placed the 6 for $6 after the comeout roll, replacing both wins and losses. If the bankroll was higher than $120 (i.e., more than $20 ahead), the bettor also placed the 8 for $6. If the bankroll became less than $6, the session ended. After 200 rolls, all bets taken down and session ended.

    In the other, the bettor bet $5 passline each comeout. If the bankroll was greater than $120, the bettor took single odds on the point ($5 on 4,6,8,10, $6 on 5/9). If the bankroll was less than $5, the session ended. At 200 rolls, if there was an outstanding bet, the rolling continued until the bet was resolved.

    Some numbers:
    Code:
    *                 place bets   pass bets
    mean bet handle:  $296         $321
    mean net outcome: -$4.48       -$3.60
    median            -$8          -$7
    standard deviation: $47.50     $45
    HA:               1.52%        1.12%
    busts:              244          97
    winning sessions:  4014        3858
    breakeven sessions: 107         429
    losing sessions:   5879        5713
    lost $50 or more:  1505        1264
    won $50 or more:   1231        1083
    won $100 or more:   360         358
    Not really a huge difference, but over a long time you lose about 24% more with the place bets at this level.

    It is important to note, also, that if you have more money and want to increase the place bets, every increase adds to the expected loss, whereas if you increase the odds bets, no additional expected loss is involved, just increased variance.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, Ca
     
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  8. justfewmorerolls, Feb 10, 2011

    justfewmorerolls

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    Have a large bankroll and starts small. Keep it simple and wait for the table to heat up. Use the take one press one method. Always check to make sure you don't have too much on the felt compared to your rack. When the shooter is hot open up your game and after he sevens out go back to money management or leave the table.
     
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  9. Hardeight, Feb 10, 2011

    Hardeight

    Hardeight Member

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    At the Sugarhouse the explanation was weird.The pit boss told me that if I give my card with lets say $110 chips exchange that does not count its based on how much I bet.Im like how can they track when you bet and also it depends on how much time I was at a table?And if I move tables it doesnt count for accumulation.WTF?I think they are just cheap bastards when it comes down to it.
     
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  10. Hardeight, Feb 10, 2011

    Hardeight

    Hardeight Member

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    I disagree I want the same dice always
     
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