Low Risk Craps Strategy

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by cubs4700, Apr 11, 2017.

  1. cubs4700, Apr 11, 2017

    cubs4700

    cubs4700 Member

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    Watched a video on Youtube called Low Risk Craps Strategy by Stagetech Marine. It is a pass line bet then a large DC bet, he then places all the numbers and uses the Come to then get odds on the numbers. Will use 2 the 3 then 4 times odds. He will have lots of money on the table but feels that it is somewhat protected by his DC bet, unless he loses that. It is a long video and he gets down to all his $300 bu in on the table but then catches a long roll and gets up over $600. My question is - is this a good way to play? It seems that if you catch a good roll it will pay off good but lots of work and risk. I tried it at home reducing his bets by half and seemed to break even after some short rolls, never had anything over 10 or so. Anyone else see this video or have an opinion.
     
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  2. TDVegas, Apr 11, 2017

    TDVegas

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    It's a hedge strategy. Don't like it.

    Pick a side...and run with it.
     
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  3. KokomoJoe4, Apr 11, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

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    If you crave action, it's not a bad strategy. Problem with the big DC bet is that you will lose it coming out 22% of the time, and what is not quite as obvious is that you will lose it between an additional 33-45% of the time when the DC point comes back before the seven shows.

    When you are out across on all numbers and see a lot of them rolled, you will be raking it in. Trouble is, we all tend to make the bets bigger as we win, so that after a long roll, you will lose a lot more than the $75 you have riding on the DC, which might have gotten picked off during the long roll, in which case you are out another $75.

    Too many bets at a time for my liking, but your play doesn't have to please me, it only has to please you. As TDV says, it is a hedge play that protects against a major loss caused by a short roll.
     
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  4. Onautopilot, Apr 11, 2017

    Onautopilot

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    In my opinion, there are much better strategies than this one if it's action you want.

    Leave out the don't bet, and the place bets. start on pass line with continuing come bets, parlay any win one time and back to original bet.

    Lots of action, and some hedge against short rolls with the come bet.

    I use this sometimes, with a very small starting bet, then use a negative progression of one unit if I get down a certain percentage of my buy-in.

    A lot of action, and if you catch a hot roll, it is usually with an increased bet....a lot of potential., but a bit on the volatile side.

    Not for the faint of heart. :)
     
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  5. basicstrategy777, Apr 11, 2017

    basicstrategy777

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    Looks like if the DC # is rolled then a 7, that would be bad , as you would lose all your money.......,..but hey, how often does that happen.

    Kinda like the iron cross.. hey,only the 7 will hurt you.

    I hedge on occassion but don't like to do it.

    A traditional hedge is when you bet a little to protect alot....e.g. a hard 10 after you lay it.

    Looks like you are betting alot to protect alot.....I don't like the play.

    A variation of this would be to play the DPL and place the 6 and 8.......and come down after 1 or 2 hits and wait for the 7. This is a holding strategy until you see the table turn. You don't have much out there initially and can build your bets when the numbers start rolling.

    I prefer to play one side or the other...preferably DUE.

    777
     
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    Last edited: Apr 12, 2017
  6. HornHighBLEVE, Apr 11, 2017

    HornHighBLEVE

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    cubs4700 I too was intrigued by the video.

    The shooter put 75 on the DP line and once a point was rolled he bet all the box numbers. He had rules about leaving the DP in play like...

    ... if a 6 or 8 was the point he might take it down and use that for his place bets. He had a few variant bets work into play as well.

    I liked the play but didn't have the chutzpah to use it yet.
     
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  7. TDVegas, Apr 11, 2017

    TDVegas

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    My anti hedge thoughts revolve around not much more than...in all likelihood, over the years, over the decades, possible over the past 100 years these strategies have been used, tested and employed thousands...if not hundreds of thousands (millions, billions) of times...

    They don't work. Sure, like ANY strategy they will work sometimes.
     
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  8. Onautopilot, Apr 11, 2017

    Onautopilot

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    Craps is all about trying to dance between the rain drops without getting wet.......a hedge bettor is renting an umbrella just in case. The problem being, the rent on the umbrella. :)
     
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  9. Onautopilot, Apr 11, 2017

    Onautopilot

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    The only way to really evaluate any betting scheme, is to run some sims, and see what the expectations are for a given bankroll and a certain win goal.

    Oh, you could just go play it for a few thousand sessions, and get first hand information.....but that could get rather expensive, not mention time consuming.

    All schemes will have an expected win / loss result based on the amount at risk verses the amount of desired win goals. It's nice to know in advance what those expectations are.

    Then you can do what I usually do in money matter decisions.......put the cost in one hand, and the potential benefits in the other and see which one weighs the most.......see if you like your chances.
     
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  10. von duck, Apr 11, 2017

    von duck

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    Every bet has a house edge against it, it doesn't matter which bets you combine, your expectation DOES NOT CHANGE. The odds bet is the one exception.
     
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  11. KokomoJoe4, Apr 11, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

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    777 has as usual seen through the worst of this play, and indeed that is it. It WILL happen, you can count on it. Hopefully only once in a while, but it definitely will happen.
     
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  12. von duck, Apr 12, 2017

    von duck

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    Nothing "works" per say, but it's best to have some plan in mind when you go to the table. As long as you stick to the low H/A bets, the system can't "hurt", either, I don't think.
     
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  13. Twelve4s, Apr 12, 2017

    Twelve4s

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    Yes it's wise to have a plan when you walk under the dumbshit spray, but the best laid plan can turn to doo doo in a hurry.

    Victory goes to the combatants who improvise, adapt, and overcome.

    Then again, there are times when retreat is the only option.

    I feel that playing craps is more an art, than a science. A game plan shouldn't blind a coaches eyes to what's unfolding on the gridiron.
     
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  14. basicstrategy777, Apr 12, 2017

    basicstrategy777

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    " Everybody has a plan......until they get punched in the face."


    777
     
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  15. Twelve4s, Apr 12, 2017

    Twelve4s

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    Or kicked in the face,

    IMG_8012.JPG
     
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  16. TDVegas, Apr 12, 2017

    TDVegas

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    Know when to walk. Either set that number in your head or just know. The worst thing you can do IMO is chase. Show me reckless wagering to get back even and I'll show you an empty wallet.

    I see it almost everyday. The casinos love it.

    Have a plan and know when to wave the white flag.
     
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  17. basicstrategy777, Apr 12, 2017

    basicstrategy777

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    One of the most valuable lessons in life is......to know when to quit.

    777
     
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  18. Onautopilot, Apr 12, 2017

    Onautopilot

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    "If at first you don't succeed, try again, if you don't succeed on that try.......QUIT, don't be a damn fool about it!"

    Always loved that "counter" quote. :)
     
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  19. Freddyy, Apr 14, 2017

    Freddyy

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    The most valuable lesson in craps...don't play on whiny tables. You will do more money skipping to the 15$ table with players who know the game and can take the pressure, then sticking to playing the 5$ table with idiots cuz it's cheaper.


    On a 15$ table a upswing will be 400$ and you're gone. Downswing 250$ you're gone. Simple as that. Fuck the eternal low bets that keeps you there for hours with 50$ swings up and down you can never quit.
     
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  20. whitemoses, Jul 27, 2017

    whitemoses

    whitemoses Member

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    So I am still a craps novice at only having dabbled a bit throughout the years but I too saw this video and was intrigued. I have a couple questions one on strategy and another probably really stupid one to ensure I understand the correct payouts.

    First my usual system is very basic. I am not a high roller and will look for a lower limit $3 or $5 table. I play the pass and if my number hits back it with 5X odds. Say I have a pl bet of $3 I now have it backed by $15. I then simply will play up to two additional come bets and do the same. So I have three numbers covered and a total amount of (assuming a $3 minimum) $54 on the table.

    The guy in the video really made me think because the most likely number to come up at this point would be a seven and then I'm out.

    I know its just personal preference but unless there is really something I'm missing it seems like it may be better to flip this the way he did and play a heavy don't come bet with all other numbers bought. Then I have my seven as my friend. Am I missing something glaring? Obviously a seven on the come out would kill me, but a seven from that point on would be a winner opposed to a loser. I get obviously you lose if the point hits, but I am simply talking about having the seven work for you not against you.

    Now to my rookie question. If I place say a 5 or a 9 I get I am only going to get 7:5 but can I back that number at true odds at any time and get 3:2 or does it need to be hit first in order for me to get 3:2?

    Thanks for your help.
     
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