Low Risk Craps Strategy

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by cubs4700, Apr 11, 2017.

  1. betwthelines, Jul 27, 2017

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    no wonder you are confused given some of the answers that you are getting...not that my verbose logorrhea here will be any less confusing!...lol.

    imo the only solid way to compare place vs buy vs put bets is by looking at the the math of it...do not misunderstand as other factors besides the math can and do play into one's decisions but the math is the only non subjective criteria.

    the "vig" (house advantage) for a place 6/8 is about 1.51%, for the 5/9, 4%, for the 4/10, a center-bet-like 9%...the vig on buy bets is nominally 5% but can be lower depending upon the amount bet (except on the bubble where it is always 5% to the penny).

    thus--and leaving aside put bets for now--on the face of it one should place the 6/8, 5/9 and buy the ten...were it only so straightforward!! well, it is for the 6/8 where a place bet is always most advantageous & for the 4/10 a buy bet...advantage regarding the 5/9 can vary due to "breakage"

    however most places will have a minimum $20 for buy bets...few places have birds ($0.25 coins or chips) anymore, although a few that still use kennedys allow a $10 minimum buy. but then i suppose too there are dollar chip places that might allow you the privilege of paying $1 to buy a $5 10 (20%...lol)

    using our $20 minimum buy then, the 5/9 would cost the 5% one dollar: not a good bet when you can place it for a 4% vig...however some places will let you buy up to $39 (this too will vary) before the second dollar vig would "kick in" at $40...the vig on that $39 bet would work out to only about 2.5% & thus better than the 4% 5/9 place bet (other places the break point might be $30, thus the buy vig for that amount still better at 3.33%)

    put bets too will vary...most, but not all, places, allow them...traditionally these have been used to replace a winning come bet since that come number therefore comes down and is then "put" back up as was (ie a flat and an odds bet)...but if allowed, put bets can be made anytime...

    put vs. place bets really, at bottom, need to be figured on an individual case basis...ironically since put are far less common than place bets, the best case scenario for the place bet is a break even comparison...otherwise put bets win...however since the proper bet amounts are not always comparable, comparisons can be "variegated".

    a $30 6/8 place bet will pay $35 just like a $5 flat/$25 odds (since you are taking 5x) put bet. with all other things being equal however put bets otherwise win over place bets.

    a $30 place 5/9 will pay $42 but for one dollar more invested $5 flat/$26 odds the put bet pays $44 (put another way using identical dollar amounts a $31 5/9 place--likely not even allowed--would pay $43)...a $30 placed 10 will pay only $54 but a $5 flat/$25 odds put bet will pay $55.

    two or 4 times/year players probably need not over-think it all...but for those who play daily or nearly so, the differences can add up significantly and fast.

    tom p
     
    #41
  2. The Midnight Skulker, Jul 27, 2017

    The Midnight Skulker

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    A small point of order, which may be a misunderstanding on my part of what you said. Pass and Come bets are called contract bets: once they establish a point you cannot reduce them or take them down; they must remain in action until resolved. Most houses will allow you to add to contract bets, but once the dice roll after the addition it becomes part of the contract.

    Place and buy bets are not contract bets; you can add to, subtract from, and remove them at any time. This is often cited as an advantage these bets have over their contract equivalents, and indeed they do allow the player to retain full control over them. The down side of course is that the house takes anywhere from a little to a lot bigger bite out of them because the player is forgoing the 2:1 advantage he/she enjoys on the comeout roll.
     
    #42
  3. rongarm10, Jul 27, 2017

    rongarm10

    rongarm10 Member

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    I am not so sure that very many casinos will let u do put bets. Just sayin.
     
    #43
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  4. yacraps, Jul 27, 2017

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

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    you are right some do and some dont most do
     
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  5. KokomoJoe4, Jul 28, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    this is correct, but compare it to what I stated about the exact same bets.

    Successful Buy 5/9 at $20 wins 20 x 3/2 minus $1 vig = $29

    Successful place 5/9 at $20 wins 20 x 7/5 = $28


    How can both statements be correct?

    They are not. In this case, it depends on whether the casino rules at which you are playing charge the vigorish on the wager or on the win. When its on the wager, BTL's statement is correct. When it's on the win, my statement is correct.

    More information you need to know when making a buy bet, but the bottom line is this, the number you are on has to show before the seven for you to win the bet.
     
    #45
  6. betwthelines, Jul 28, 2017

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    you know, i admit, koko, that i might have had a toke too many here this morning but yours is one of the more confusing posts that i have run across lately , never mind that it is downright in error...
    HUH!?

    what?

    wrong.

    of course both statements are correct! Period.

    you can convolute the math any way you want but a $20 5/9 buy bet wins $29 and a $20 5/9 place bet wins $28...
    wrong.

    it does not "depend" at all on how the house charges vig. remember we are talking about winning bets ('successful" is the term you used) where no matter how the vig is charged, you win $29. it is only on LOSING bets that how the vig is charged is ever even relevant.

    both statements are correct on their face. there is no "depends"

    --------------------------------------------------​

    really?

    ok. help me clarify this, supperr...er, i mean, koko...does that mean that if i bet the 12, that it needs to show on the next roll in order for me to win?

    or if i go for a walk this afternoon, at the end of the day will i have gone for a walk?

    help me out with all this, would ya, supperi...er, i mean, koko.

    tom p
    -g. geist: jeepers.., you're bein' kinduv an asshole with your pal koko, aren't you?.
    --tom p: LOL...yah i s'pose yer right
    ---g. geist: i think it's too many sucks on that doobie...
    ----tom p:
    -----g. geist:
    ------tom p:
    -------g. geist:
    --------tom p: look... ... ... ... ...go by the math, influence the dice, employ time travel, tap into universal voodoo, think positively...fine...i'm good with all those...but it's just i am getting so awfully fucking sick & tired of hearing that the way to win at craps is to bet on the numbers that will roll! or some version of that...fucking, really?...gosh, thank you so much for the advice...i will be sure to put it into action right away... ... ... ...gimme something---ANYTHING---that is not a gawdamn circle(jerk)... ... ... ...
    ---------g. geist: ... ...uh huh... ... ...go on
    ----------tom p: o, shut the fuck up
     
    #46
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  7. KokomoJoe4, Jul 28, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    If you buy where the vig is collected on the bet, you are not playing smart, because your $20 bet is now a $20 bet that costs you $21 to make but pays you as if it were a $20 bet.

    This bet will probably not be paid if the number bet is not rolled.

    What I meant by both statements are (1) your statement that a $20 place is a better bet because it has less vigorish than a $20 buy and (2) my statement, by way of comparative calculations, that a $20 buy is better than a $20 place.
     
    #47
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2017
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  8. betwthelines, Jul 28, 2017

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    correct...here the place bet is better and a buy "not smart"

    at the $30 level however the buy bet is "smarter"

    what i mean is the answer as to which is better is always the same regardless of the vig collection policy.

    there is no scenario you can name where the answer to which bet is better mathematically would be different were the vig policy different.

    tom p
     
    #48
  9. whitemoses, Jul 28, 2017

    whitemoses

    whitemoses Member

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    ok between reading the above posts and watching the video originally referenced again I see my problem and source of confusion. The guy in the video was placing everything on top. Then he was playing the come line. So lets say he had placed a 5 and then at some point had a come line bet that established a 5. I saw him taking odds on the five and in my head thought that was the original PLACED 5 bet. Now I see that he simply took the profit from the placed 5 and converted it into the odds which was the come out 5. Sorry I should have paid more attention to the video the first time but it was going pretty fast for me, it took me a second to see what was happening.

    I may try this strategy. I may tinker around with the bet increments a little and do not think I would want a full $75 on the don't come if I am starting with $5 pass/come/place bets.

    Maybe I would have $5 pass up to 5 times odds. Place numbers for $5 and then follow with $5 come bets and convert the winnings from any place number hit to that number. On the second roll which is when he makes his don't come bet make that bet for say $40 which would protect me against the seven.

    Thanks for all the time in explaining this and answering my questions. I am excited to finally get back to Casino Royale. I do love that place.

    regards
     
    #49
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  10. Twelve4s, Jul 28, 2017

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

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    Go get em Moses!

     
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  11. yacraps, Jul 28, 2017

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

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    UH this Moses looks different
     
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  12. Twelve4s, Jul 28, 2017

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

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    Oh ya, I'm sure Mel is a helluva craps player!
     
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  13. yacraps, Jul 28, 2017

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

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    Even if he aint it would be a riot to be at the table with him....I keep forgetting aint aint a word
     
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  14. Twelve4s, Jul 28, 2017

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

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    Maybe we can get him to meet us at Railroad Pass Casino, just for some practice? Rick could give us some pointers?
     
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  15. yacraps, Jul 28, 2017

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

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    LOL.. Now that would be a riot Rick would show us how to make the dough and Mel would show us to the 40 dollar hoe :oops:
     
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  16. yacraps, Jul 28, 2017

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

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    Ya know home depot has cheap hoes :D
     
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  17. tabletop123, Jul 28, 2017

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Ain't, ain't a word? Well, it certainly was in my old Neighborhood growing up as a kid. Along with "Gim me" ( Give me), nuffin ( nothing), along with a thousand other words.
    Taint dat ta bitch? ( Ain't that a bitch). Lol.
    Growing up in the hood was good, but most times ya were often misunderstood! Lol
     
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  18. yacraps, Jul 28, 2017

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

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    Lol.. you forgot my favorite "samich" I love lunch time
     
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  19. yacraps, Jul 29, 2017

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

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    My buddy Moses gets it again (forward to min 4:20)
     
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  20. James Hall, Jul 29, 2017

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    try ain't
     
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