Maximizing Protection and Profit

Discussion in 'Bankroll Management' started by KokomoJoe4, May 9, 2015.

  1. KokomoJoe4, May 9, 2015

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    We all play the game a bit differently, and have our own ideas as to what is best. For some, this might even change from session to session, or depending on how s/he feels about todays play.

    We all like to play and to win. I play the way I do not because it is fun (it often isn't), but because I want to give myself the best chance to win rather than lose, and to get an opportunity to win big when things go well.

    Thinking more about this, it is clear that the best chance at winning isn't being had on the Pass or the Come. For the come out roll - yes, prohibitive favorite. Unfortunately, this status lasts exactly one roll, after which underdog is the word. Play the other way and the rolls reverse exactly, but you are the favorite for all of the delayed decisions. Place instead of line bet? Now you are always the underdog. That would leave only the lay bets - no extra come out exposure, and always a 6:5, 3:2 or 2:1 favorite.

    If outcomes occur exactly as expected, the lay bettor will be down 5% of his bankroll, while having won, depending on number(s) laid, between 55-67% of his wagers. This is the cost of playing the game. Even with wins in excess of expectation, how large can profits be when risking $2 plus 5% for every dollar won? Getting the best chance at a win can be costly with a loss.
     
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  2. Onautopilot, May 9, 2015

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    Since it is a negative expectation game no matter how you slice it, any decision to play, can not be one of economics.....if you are intelligent, and a critical thinker. So, the bet you make, must have some value to you, other than economics. Each individual player probably has differing values as relates to their bets.

    Some like the adrenalin rush, some like the escape from the mundane, some like the social aspect, some like the recognition from the casino, and what other things float their boat. I think picking a method of play probably relates to those motivations for playing the game. The adrenalin rush player may opt for high risk, high reward bets, the social player, and escape players probably opt for the lower risk, less return bets, the player desiring recognition plays to what ever level that gains the, "Mr, K." title. In the end, it is never about the money, if it is, you are being irrational, and defying all that is known about economics.

    So one should probably play at a level that is in concert with their "utility", the value they place on their money. Oh by the way, when someone says, "I just play for entertainment", I have a hard time believing that......would you play the game just for the fun of it, no money involved, I doubt many would, there are many other things better suited to "entertainment", at least I think so.
     
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  3. basicstrategy777, May 10, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    " If I lose today, I can look forward to winning tomorrow, and if I win today, I can expect to lose tomorrow. A sure thing is no fun "...........Chico Marx
     
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  4. thecrazymr, May 10, 2015

    thecrazymr

    thecrazymr Member

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    Why we play the game when we all know we are expected to have X% loss rate? Now that is a nice topic.
    I play for the challenge. We all know there is a loss expectation, but there is also endless winning POSIBILITIES. I think we all want to have those moments that we walk out the door saying to ourselves, "I did it today", that feeling of accomplishment of achieving a goal we are not expected to achieve.

    So go ahead and play for the money, the excitement, the entertainment, and the adrenalin rush. I will simply play for the challenge, and we all can enjoy the game in our own way.
     
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  5. Onautopilot, May 10, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    I agree, challenge, is one I missed, and might even be the reason I play a lot! I am fairly competitive, and do not enjoy losing at all, so, like you, I get a good feeling when I leave after beating the house....for any amount!
     
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    Last edited: May 10, 2015
  6. driglaz, May 11, 2015

    driglaz

    driglaz Member

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    The DI does not have negative expectations.- they expect to win
    False hope for some but not for all
     
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  7. DeMango, May 12, 2015

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    Most dice players play positive progressions. Most lose. There is a link.
     
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  8. The Midnight Skulker, May 12, 2015

    The Midnight Skulker

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    Most dice players who do not play positive progressions also lose. Might there be a link for them also, a link that is independent of betting strategy?

    Come to think of it I vaguely recall reading about something called "a negative expectation" somewhere. I wonder if that has any significance or if it's just a bunch of mathematical gibberish.
     
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  9. DeMango, May 12, 2015

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    Liken this gambling to the biggest form of gambling in America: The Stock Market. Buy low, sell high, that's the idea. But most gamblers talk about the best way to buy more, instead of cutting back and making a profit. So you get paid $49 for your $25 four. What's the problem of regressing that to a $10 four? Regression avoids depression!
     
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  10. KokomoJoe4, May 12, 2015

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    DeMango is, as he often is, absolutely correct.

    It is difficult enough to win at this game. So why when we are ahead do we bet more and more? Either because we are smart, greedy or stupid.

    I will always press bets heavily when winning, but will almost never turn a winning session into a losing one doing so. Damn it, this always has to do with progressive bet #1 or #2 with me.
     
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  11. basicstrategy777, May 12, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    Greed is the greatest ally of the casino.

    777
     
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  12. Onautopilot, May 12, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    And in many cases, their downfall.
     
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  13. thecrazymr, May 12, 2015

    thecrazymr

    thecrazymr Member

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    Can't believe that craps was just compared to the stock market. If a stock goes down, you are not required to sell it and it can rise again in the future...... If you hold a fallen stock, you can dollar cost average with more shares and your loss/share is lowered requiring less of a return to return to profit, you can sell as its falling and buy back the same number of shares at a lower price..... CRAPS, you can win or you can lose.....period.
     
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  14. DeMango, May 12, 2015

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    Next time the stock market tanks, and with our debt position, 18 trillion and growing, the chickens WILL come home to roost. When that happens and it WILL happen, remember this post. Mandarin might be a good language to take up!
     
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