Newbie here

Discussion in 'Introductions' started by TR31, Feb 21, 2017.


  1. TR31

    TR31 Member

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    I was posting on another website but the regulars and moderators are hostile against players who hedge bets in craps.

    I live in California and am within a short drive of Reno and have come to enjoy playing bubble or e-craps. The game is by Aruze called "Shoot To Win". The bad news is that a team of advantage players burned out the good promotions in Reno and at Red Hawk. Circus Circus was really easy to get comps & free rooms but once they changed the coin-in to get one point, it's hard to go there now for the free or low cost meals.

    I am mainly a Don't Come bettor during a hot shooter and like to make the easy money. A hot shooter is when there are at least 20 consecutive rolls of no red 7; a seven on come out roll is blue. After the DC bets becomes the point, I hedge for a guaranteed no lose situation. For example $5 DC bet gets hedged with $3 buy bet for 4,10, $4 buy bet for 5,9, and $5 place bet for 6,8 and I cannot lose money. Or I could take $5 odds for $10 ($5 DC and $5 odds) and make $7 buy bet for 4,10, $8 buy bet for 5,9 and $9 place bet for 6,8 and I cannot lose money. During a hot shooter, there is no 7-out during these 1st 20 rolls. Since it's a slot machine, you want to get the coin-in through the game so you want to get as many hedge plays as possible -- I play a break-even game and get mailers, free food, free play offers, etc.

    Only problem is a team of advantage players hog up the seats on multiple point days and it's hard to get a machine when the casino is busy. The AP's are in teams -- one bets pass with 2X odds and the other members bets don't pass with full 2X odds and same for Come & Don't Come, respectively. As a result, I can't do this to get points to avoid guilt by association.

    Hope to learn more about craps from reading this forum.
     
    #1
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  2. Onautopilot, Feb 21, 2017

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    Welcome to the forum.

    I don't really understand the "AP" thing that you mentioned. Players betting opposite of each other are expected to both lose in the long term.
     
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  3. TR31

    TR31 Member

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    1. Aruze craps is different than table craps due to fractional bets (since table game has "fixed" bets); in bubble craps, you can make a $1 buy bet on 4,10 vs min $20 on some table games. Thus, more chances to hedge in bubble craps.

    2. The bubble craps is a slot machine where odds bets generate no house edge but allow the slot player to get an edge. Suppose one partner bets $30 on pass line and takes $60 in odds when point is 6. The partner bets $30 on don't pass and takes $60 in odds such that a combined $180 of action is working to generate free play and other benefits but casino only has an edge on $60. Odds bets results in the house edge being heavily diluted.

    The way to lose is a boxcar or 1 in 36 rolls on average. The AP's are comparing the house edge to what they can get out of a casino and many times multiple point days (where slot points are worth 2X, 3X...6X, etc) is enough to win.

    Suppose at 2X odds, the house advantage is 61 basis points or bp (0.61%), and slot points are worth 33 basis points (0.33%) such that 2X points is enough to beat the game since 66 bp now exceed house edge of 61 bp.

    Basically, the AP lose in the game but win by slot benefits.
     
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  4. Onautopilot, Feb 22, 2017

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    I am very familiar with the bubble craps game, and understand the correct pays on bets of any denomination.

    But the points thing is much different on the bubble than on slot machines, at least in Vegas, and Reno that is the case......at least that is what I experienced.

    But if they are making up for the HA with comps, good for them, but can't imagine sitting there that long in a no win situation, just to reap a few comp benefits.
     
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  5. TR31

    TR31 Member

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    A conservative estimate would be $50 / hr win rate. It may have been as much $90+.

    Think of this way $90 pass line with 2X odds is $270 and the partner is also getting $270 for $540 in action every 20 to 30 seconds.

    $540 every 30 seconds at 20 basis points advantage would be about $130 / hr win rate.
     
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  6. KokomoJoe4, Feb 23, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    If you can get fractional amounts paid correctly on minimal bets, you can use a martingale sized wager on a come out DP or DC loser, and keep doing so until you get behind a number. It is a certainty that when starting with only a $1 Don't come out bet, that you will not lose enough such bets in succession to be at risk of losing a table maximum sized bet.

    As a result, your last come out which finally gets behind a number can safely be hedged with a slightly smaller place or buy of this same box number, and a win is guaranteed.

    Take a LOT of money with you, plan on playing forever and a day, and you will eventually build up an impressive sized win.

    Seems like almost a sure thing to me. Obviously, if you have enough of the progressive losers while martingaling, it will take a long time to even things out. If you ever lose 10-12 come outs in a row, you will not recover and will have lost :eek:, but is it possible to see this many 7's/11's in a row?
     
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  7. KokomoJoe4, Feb 24, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    It should be made clear that this is not as good as it sounds, i.e., the guaranteed win. Think about what has been happening - you have lost several come outs in a row, say -$1, -$2, -$4, -$8, -$16, -$32, -$64, -$128 (you have lost $255 quickly in succession). Finally your $256 come out gets safely behind an eight, so you place the eight for $240 and a guaranteed win of either $16 on the seven out or $32 on the repeater. In either case, you have recovered only a pittance of the big loser.

    This play will not cripple you, but one such string of losers will not be easily made up for.
     
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  8. von duck, Mar 31, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    You can NOT combine negative expectation bets, in any way that will give you a positive expectation. Unless you consider losing, " positive ".
     
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  9. KokomoJoe4, Apr 13, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    You are putting words in my mouth Baron. Never said anything about positive expectation.

    Once you are sitting behind a number, you can absolutely make a place or buy on the same number for a bit less than what sits behind, and guarantee a winner.

    If you want to play games hedging your come out don't by either laying odds on an already established one or by placing a couple of whites on the Yo and Any 7, you can "cover" the effect of a come out 7 or 11, but you can not "cover" all of the $2 losses that occur when the come out result is a box number.
     
    #9
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