NFL picks contest (Year 2)

Discussion in 'Offtopic Lounge' started by TDVegas, Sep 4, 2019.

  1. basicstrategy777, Sep 8, 2019

    basicstrategy777

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    The best can rarely get over 50% correct.

    777
     
    #21
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  2. von duck, Sep 8, 2019

    von duck

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    The BEST probably do in the low 60s % range. A GD coin will give you 50%.
     
    #22
  3. TDVegas, Sep 8, 2019

    TDVegas

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    Just over 50% is still a likely loser. Vig has to be considered. Typically 10%.

    I would think to make regular bank....might have to be as high as 58-60%
     
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  4. Night Attack, Sep 8, 2019

    Night Attack

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    52.38% is break even at +/- 110. A successful sports gambler is typically hitting 57%-58%. Those claiming to hit above 60% are usually touting their tips online for money. They guarantee their tip is a winner or you get your money back.

    I've been at this a while so I know what i'm talking about. What did you think, I only lose money at craps? Ha, well the joke's on you!
     
    #24
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  5. KokomoJoe4, Sep 8, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

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    You know BL, I can hardly stand to watch the game anymore.

    Growing up as a Steeler fan in the 70's was a fantastic experience, but the game has changed so much, with all rules favoring offense and becoming a passing circus, it ain't the same game. Does nothing for me.

    Never was into wagering on the game, so no reason to watch for that reason either.
     
    #25
  6. MisterInside, Sep 8, 2019

    MisterInside

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    I agree with your math. I don't think ANYBODY can consistently pick > 60%. We all
    have a great year or a great roll and that is what keeps us going. If you want to win
    a few bucks, bet with your friends or guys at the bar and eliminate the vig factor.

    Overall the 7 of us are 14-16 with 5 remaining games as of 8:20 EDT.
     
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  7. von duck, Sep 8, 2019

    von duck

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    I have the group at 13-16-1.
     
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  8. yacraps, Sep 8, 2019

    yacraps

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    Boy did I get off to a bad start....didn't pick one tie :rolleyes:..although looks like 777s is taking my place :)...must be a Italian thing o_O :D
     
    #28
  9. yacraps, Sep 8, 2019

    yacraps

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    I was happy to contribute.... a win :oops:....I'm going all out next week..... and buy a new weegie board
     
    #29
  10. Bases loaded, Sep 8, 2019

    Bases loaded

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    I got demolished.

    I will have a new plan for Week 2.
     
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  11. von duck, Sep 8, 2019

    von duck

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    I had one miracle comeback, (Bills) one total collapse, (Lions) and one that was a combination of both (Eagles). Football is composed of so many pieces and parts, it is a handicapping nightmare. I wouldn't want to depend on it for my bread and butter. Not that many solid teams, most are in-and-outer's. KC was the only one that played the way I saw it, and I almost didn't take them because it looked too easy. :confused: Tough game man. :cool:
     
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  12. Night Attack, Sep 8, 2019

    Night Attack

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    Ouija board.

    I'd like to buy a vowel please.
     
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  13. TDVegas, Sep 8, 2019

    TDVegas

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    I'm beginning to think betting the Patriots is like betting on Apple stock. There will be ups, downs, tough weeks, maybe tough months....but by the end of the year the damn thing is cranking out cash for ya.

    If I had to pick...take for the Patriots every week and against the Dolphins. Point spread will burn you here and there...but jeez, seems like no brainer picks. I'd love to know the Pats record against the spread going back the last 5 years.

    I'll post the final tally after tomorrow. NA and myself have the Broncos...either 3-2 or 2-3 we go.

    Tough business....picking winners.

    Found this....

    https://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/11/bi...ing-fantasy-football-stats-against-the-spread
     
    #33
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2019
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  14. Night Attack, Sep 9, 2019

    Night Attack

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    Or 2-2-1. I hope the administration improves going forward.
     
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  15. basicstrategy777, Sep 9, 2019

    basicstrategy777

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    I would be surprized if the best percentage of football experts is over 55 %......with the percentage of people making money over a years time is about 3 %............. it's just very hard to win ......

    777
     
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  16. TDVegas, Sep 9, 2019

    TDVegas

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    I've seen claims as high as 68%....AND that guy is actually selling them.

    Dom the Dominator had sent out an email claiming he was in that range. Sadly, those who actually did fall prey to joining his paid service were not getting anywhere close to those numbers for future picks. He was around ~50%....which any Joe Schmo can pull off. Maybe next year a little better or a little worse.

    In the meantime, he's collecting $150/month from these suckers. Shit, not only do you have to pay the vig but now you also have to pay the service. 60% might not even do it.

    What a racket. A fool and his money.

    Twelve4s last year pulled off what I considered a monumental achievement over 70 picks....61% win rate. Kudos to him. He was getting it done week in, week out. I thought he did amazing on his picks.

    Go Broncos. Never liked Chuckie. Not sure why. He reminds me of a time share salesman with his personality and pitch.
     
    #36
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  17. MisterInside, Sep 9, 2019

    MisterInside

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    What a difference a day makes......

    AFC North ODDS to win Division:
    Baltimore now favored at +$175; Was +$320 on Saturday
    Pittsburgh now +$185; Was +$150 on Saturday
    Cleveland now +$190; Was +$150 on Saturday

    One of the oldest cons must be to charge $100 for a guaranteed winner. Pay me on a win. Don't pay me on a loss. Customer A signs up, you tell him that team X is your lock. Customer B signs up, you tell him that Team Y is your lock in the same game. Collect $100 from 50% of your customers.

    I'm with TDV on Chuckie. Phony, ass kisser who displays MORE SHOW THAN GO. AB played
    the little guy like a fuckin' piano. Give shorty props for being the most overpaid head coach in football history. If he doesn't make it to Las Vegas next year, he can build a hotel with $100 bills.

    777 is my LOCK to be leading after week 1.

    MNF isn't the same since it went to ESPN. Truth be told, I miss Howard and Dandy Don.
     
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  18. TDVegas, Sep 9, 2019

    TDVegas

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    No question on Chuckie...I know it's his job to be upbeat and everything but it comes off as so phony. "Great group of guys, great rookies, great veterans, great atmosphere, great things, great GM, great owner, great this, great that....oh yeah, and great contract".

    This guy would put sprinkles on dog shit. He knew AB was a head case. Cut the crap.

    MNF....those were the good ol days.
     
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  19. MisterInside, Sep 9, 2019

    MisterInside

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    First ABC Monday Night Football telecast, September 21, 1970.

    Final Score.....Cleveland 31, New York Jets 21

    Prime time football became an instant success. It changed American society in many ways.
    Everybody watched it, every week.

    Rematch next Monday (unfortunately) on ESPN. No Howard, no Danderoo, no Keith. Instead, you'll get Joe Tessitore and Booger McFarland. There's always a mute button.

    MisterInside was a sophomore in college. Where were you?

     
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  20. MisterInside, Sep 9, 2019

    MisterInside

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    777 = 80%
     
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