NOW WHAT IF IT WAS POSSIBLE????

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by Stuart Brandt, Feb 27, 2019.

  1. Stuart Brandt, Feb 27, 2019

    Stuart Brandt

    Stuart Brandt Member

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    I spoke to a very respected forum member the other day and he gave me a little tip that if we could just via Dice Influence convert one seven to being a six or eight over 36 rolls we would really have an edge.

    Now if we did it over 100 rolls it would be an advantage of 8.34 percent.

    Dice Roll Probability
    The chance of rolling a total of 2 is 2.78 percent
    The chance of rolling a total of 3 is 5.56 percent
    The chance of rolling a total of 4 is 8.33 percent
    The chance of rolling a total of 5 is 11.11 percent
    The chance of rolling a total of 6 is 13.89 percent Imagine one extra 6 every 36 rolls.
    The chance of rolling a total of 7 is 16.67 percent Imagine one less 7 every 36 rolls.
    The chance of rolling a total of 8 is 13.89 percent
    The chance of rolling a total of 9 is 11.11 percent
    The chance of rolling a total of 10 is 8.33 percent
    The chance of rolling a total of 11 is 5.56 percent
    The chance of rolling a total of 12 is 2.78 percent

    IS IT POSSIBLE YES NOW I DONT HAVE THE SKILL BUT OTHERS DO?????

    JUST SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT?????
     
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  2. von duck, Feb 27, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    I did NOT know we had any, "very respected forum members", if in fact I am wrong, please name the member so that I might show "all due respect".
    Your calculation of one extra seven, per 36 rolls of the dice, would depend on WHICH 7 you elemenated. If it was a come out seven, that was replaced with a 6, then you gained nothing. Your thinking in "ideals" which rarely is the situation. If you have any control, it should be easier to snipe a certain number, than to "eliminate" a certain number. The precision necessary, would be as rare, as consistent winners are. :cool:
     
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    Last edited: Feb 28, 2019
  3. Mssthis1, Feb 27, 2019

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    If you spot someone in a casino betting $900 or so on the six woco and a big enough pass line bet to take a grand in odds when they toss a six, they may have that ability.

    A person betting across knows they don't have that ability.
     
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  4. von duck, Feb 27, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    A person MAKING such bets, is not the same thing as a person WINNING with such bets. :confused: If I saw a guy making this kind of bet, I might hang around a while to see how he fared. If he did well, I might consider betting on him, when I saw him playing again. Should not be any worse than random, in any case. :)
     
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  5. DeMango, Feb 27, 2019

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    I just want five nines in a turn!
     
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  6. BuckShot, Feb 27, 2019

    BuckShot

    BuckShot Member

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    I just want 4 of any inside number.
    You know DeMango there are many regulars attending the craps tables in Brantford, Ontario that roll the dice using a V-3 set and I kind of believe that the extra 6/7 is very profitable and many are showing this in the V-3 toss.
     
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  7. DeMango, Feb 27, 2019

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    Yup you use the V3 and keep em on axis and 6’s and 8’s will be yours. Unwanted 3’s and 11’s too
     
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  8. Dave G Ct, Feb 27, 2019

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    DeMango
    How long are we going to hear about that run on the 9' '? It happens once in a blue moon!
     
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  9. DeMango, Feb 27, 2019

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    Really Dave? That happened last week! How about your 6 point firebet? That happened 6 years ago, and you mentioned it about 50 times give or take.
     
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  10. KokomoJoe4, Feb 27, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    I'll take four, since it will give me only two come winners. :confused: I should learn how to place bet, then I'll take the fifth one too. :confused:
     
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  11. Jr007

    Jr007 Member

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    All this makes me want to change my name to Small Tall And All!
     
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  12. tabletop123, Feb 27, 2019

    tabletop123

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    Your math is in error, Demango. It has been FIFTY ONE times....give or take!!!!
     
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  13. Dave G Ct, Feb 27, 2019

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    DeMango
    First it was 4 years ago and it is a lot harder to do than a string of nine's!
    Yes I will use that when dealing with the run of the mill Rif RAF on these boards.
     
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  14. KokomoJoe4, Feb 27, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    This has been stated by "experts" and shown to be true, mathematically. Pay attention:

    House Edge = (House odds - True odds) x Probability of winning

    For six or eight, house odds are 7/6, in other words the house short-changes you when you win. True odds for these wagers are 6/5, since there are 6 ways to seven out and 5 ways to roll a six or eight. The probability for a win with either the 6 or 8 vs. seven out is 5/11, 5 ways to win divided by 11 total outcomes that affect your bet.

    House edge on the six or eight for the random shooter, and in fact, as I hope to show you below, for the so-called DI as well HE = (7/6) - (6/5) x 5/11 = - 0.01515 = - 1.52%. Negative for the player.

    Now for the calculation of house edge for the "six/eight expert shooter". Let's call this HEE for house edge for expert. HHE. If a pair of dice are rolled randomly 216 times (this is just a factor of 36, Table of 36), we expect to see 36 sevens and 30 sixes and eights. HOWEVER, because this shooter is practicing shooting and has "improved" but is not yet an "expert ", he gets 35 sevens instead of 36 with his 216 rolls. Now, HHE = (7/6) - (35/30) x 5/11 = 0. Awesome, you are even with the house, and this is proven by math.

    Finally, for the "true expert" so-called DI who tosses only 32 sevens with his 216 tosses.
    HE = (7/6) - (32/30) x 5/11 = +0.0454 = +4.54%. Again, proven by math.

    Congratulations. Quit the job, sell the house, move to Vegas and speak with a realtor about that private Caribbean island you always wanted.

    Math is used to "prove" that DI works, correct? What could be wrong with this picture? Here's what - in order for it to be true, the "skilled shooter" needs to perform at this level not for 36 rolls or for 216 rolls, but over the course of every roll he/she/it ever makes.

    Does/can or will this happen? Take a minute, think about it. OF course there will sets of 36 rolls where things are great and money is made betting on our "signature numbers." There will be other times when you can't roll a number you're on if your life depended on it.

    This is called randomness, and it involves entropy - disorder that is prevalent in life and at the craps table

    There is no skill involved with the game of craps. Dice tossing is a random activity. The fact that some do better at it than others is obvious, but what is also obvious is that no one is successful at it the MAJORITY of times they shoot, let alone EVERY TIME.
     
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  15. TR31

    TR31 Member

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    That assumes flat betting. I remember a chapter in "Fortune's Formula" by W. Poundstone that talks about Shannon's Demon, e.g. about geometric means and arithmetic means.

    https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/geometricmean.asp

    The math is beyond my abilities but if you alter the odds as posted above, Shannon's Demon should work.
     
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  16. TR31

    TR31 Member

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    Here's an article about Shannon's Demon: http://www.stableinvesting.com/2013/04/april-8-2013-shannons-demon.html

    You will be suprised by what very smart people with High Power Math can solve.
     
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  17. von duck, Feb 28, 2019

    von duck

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    Not to mention, those Very Pesky, and unwanted sevens. :cool:
     
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  18. KokomoJoe4, Feb 28, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

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    Indeed it does, for the purposes of calculation consistency.

    Wanna guess what happens to your likelihood of success when you start making LARGER wagers on any negative expectation bet?
     
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  19. Jr007

    Jr007 Member

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    There is no skill involved with the game of craps. Dice tossing is a random activity. The fact that some do better at it than others is obvious, but what is also obvious is that no one is successful at it the MAJORITY of times they shoot, let alone EVERY TIME.[/QUOTE]

    If that isnt the biggest line of B.S. ive ever heard about craps.
    I will be happy to prove you wrong koko, Meet me at any casino here (Vegas) and watch me throw and set my dice, adjusting to the table condition and location.

    Sure there are some days that i seven out earlier than I hoped for but when you bet and manage your bankroll correctly your still a winner!

    Even if I threw the dice random with no set or like most fools at the craps table I would still make money, You have to know how to bet Period!
     
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  20. basicstrategy777, Feb 28, 2019

    basicstrategy777

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