Opposite sides = 7

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by Grizzoola, May 11, 2019.

  1. lone irish digit, May 16, 2019

    lone irish digit

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2015
    Messages:
    3,781
    Likes Received:
    4,622
    This is Barney

    In James Hall paradox of variable change (not the Harrah's New Mexico) the LIDs suppercomputer says after unselectef first curtain not have car the personage should change his selection to ensure more better probabilities to win the goat behind curtain instead of car...
     
    #121
    Mssthis1 and TDVegas like this.
  2. eagleeye2, May 16, 2019

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2015
    Messages:
    3,451
    Likes Received:
    573
    Gender:
    Male

    LID,

    Just what the HELL are you on???

    eagleeye2
     
    #122
  3. The Midnight Skulker, May 16, 2019

    The Midnight Skulker

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2010
    Messages:
    4,067
    Likes Received:
    4,278
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Idaho, USA
    Being as it is the contestant who makes the final decision, to switch or not to switch, that is the question, whether 'tis nobler to...sorry, got sidetracked...now, where was I? Oh yes, we focus our attention on the contestant because he/she makes the final decision. In so doing we ignore the fact that Monty, who always reveals a losing door, also had a choice to make, namely which door to open, and that the contestant's initial choice influenced Monty's decision, which provides the contestant an opportunity to draw an inference from it.
    • If the contestant's initial choice was right, a 1 in 3 chance, then Monty had two doors to choose from.
    • If the contestant's initial choice was wrong, a 2 in 3 chance, then Monty had only one door to choose from.
    Being as the contestant is twice as likely to have initially made a wrong choice than a right one, it is twice as likely that Monty's choice was dictated rather than random. Hence the the third door is a 2:1 favorite to be the winning one.
     
    #123
    yacraps, TDVegas and Mssthis1 like this.
  4. lone irish digit, May 17, 2019

    lone irish digit

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2015
    Messages:
    3,781
    Likes Received:
    4,622
    This is Barney

    Your logic is misplaced. If there are two goats and one car the contestant personage has a 3 out of 3 or almost 100percent chance of winning a most greatest prize
     
    #124
    yacraps and Mssthis1 like this.
  5. gargoil01, May 17, 2019

    gargoil01

    gargoil01 Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2019
    Messages:
    298
    Likes Received:
    302
    Gender:
    Male
    The real question we should be asking is why does eagleeye2's both sides of his face equal 7? We should also check for the Bias on one side due to his pea sized brain. DUH!

    Yea Yea I know... Enter a casino @my own PERIL!

    G
     
    #125
    JustCurious likes this.
  6. eagleeye2, May 17, 2019

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2015
    Messages:
    3,451
    Likes Received:
    573
    Gender:
    Male

    gargoil01,

    Just like I stated when gargoil01 commenced posting, i.e.:

    Gargoil01 is more than likely a $20 K Loser than a winner @ CRAPS, based upon his postings!!!

    And his recent postings serve to verify that!!!

    eagleeye2
     
    #126
  7. gargoil01, May 17, 2019

    gargoil01

    gargoil01 Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2019
    Messages:
    298
    Likes Received:
    302
    Gender:
    Male
    Okay Harley
     
    #127
  8. eagleeye2, May 17, 2019

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2015
    Messages:
    3,451
    Likes Received:
    573
    Gender:
    Male

    OMG,

    More gargoil01 evidence of his STUPIDITY, he thinks eagleeye2 is HARLEY, what a HOOT!!!

    eagleeye2
     
    #128
  9. TDVegas, May 17, 2019

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    17,097
    Likes Received:
    11,007
    Seems logical. Reading the history....it took a while for even well known mathematicians to accept the findings.
     
    #129
  10. eagleeye2, May 17, 2019

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2015
    Messages:
    3,451
    Likes Received:
    573
    Gender:
    Male

    What gargoil01 forgets is that Harley simply ignores IDIOTS like gargoil01!

    eagleeye2
     
    #130
  11. gargoil01, May 17, 2019

    gargoil01

    gargoil01 Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2019
    Messages:
    298
    Likes Received:
    302
    Gender:
    Male
    I would rather be an IDIOT up 160K now than a broke know it all sleeping in a truck.

    G
     
    #131
    lone irish digit likes this.
  12. eagleeye2, May 17, 2019

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2015
    Messages:
    3,451
    Likes Received:
    573
    Gender:
    Male

    Typical B.S. coming from one Down some $20K...

    eagleeye2
     
    #132
  13. von duck, May 17, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2017
    Messages:
    9,947
    Likes Received:
    2,603
    Gender:
    Male
    Up $160,000? :confused: Wow, that more that I make in a whole month. :)
     
    #133
  14. von duck, May 17, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2017
    Messages:
    9,947
    Likes Received:
    2,603
    Gender:
    Male
    OK, time to do the 6/8 combinations for our biased dice test. As a reminder, the bias is defined in posts 45 & 50 of this thread, and the numbers are for 72 come-outs, too reduce the number of fractions, and to confuse EE2, who apparently, cannot multiply by two. :D
    With straight dice, in 72 come-outs, we would expect to see 20 combinations of 6/8 equally weighted, with ten of each. We would win a point of 6, 4.545 times and lose 5.455 times for a net loss of .91 units, the same would be true for the point of 8, so .91X2= 1.82. So with straight dice, we lose 1.82 units combined on the 6/8 points.
    Our biased dice would yield 9, points of 6, and 11 points of 8, so again 20 total combinations, but weighted again toward the high number, because of the bias. The 6 would win 9X 9/21= 81/21= 3.86 times, and lose 5.14 times, for a net loss of 1.28 units on the point of 6.
    Our 11 points of 8 would win 11 X 11/23= 121/23 = 5.26 times, and lose, 5.74 times for a net loss of .48 units. So .48 + 1.28 = 1.76 units lost on 6/8 points combined. And again this is slightly better, than the loss of 1.82 units with straight dice.
    OK, so now we've run all of the numbers, and next, I'll go back and tally everything, and come up with the total advantage/disadvantage, with these biased dice. I was surprised by the numbers, and I will guaran-damn-tee you, that EE2 was. A wooden stake in his heart, is what it amounts to, for him, unless there are any "legitimate" challenges. :cool:
     
    #134
  15. von duck, May 17, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2017
    Messages:
    9,947
    Likes Received:
    2,603
    Gender:
    Male
    Ok, here it is, the finale tally.
    Come-outs we were +11 units
    4/10 combos -3.898 units
    5/9. combos. -3.128 units
    6/8. combos. -1.76 units
    Sub total. -8.786 units.
    +11 units - 8.786 units = +2.214 units in 72 come-outs.
    Bottom line. 2.214/72 = .03075.
    Conclusion, these biased dice will favor a straight pass line bet, by a little more than 3%, about 4.5 % better than a straight set of dice. Sorry EE2, but you are now officially DOA. :( Oh well. :cool: This probably explains why so many casinos, have gone "belly-up".
    A legitimate challenge by Midnight, pointed out a flaw in come-out winners. The correct number would be + 10 rather than + 11, so a bottom line correction is in order.
    New Bottom line, 1.214/72 = .0168. Which translates to 1.68% advantage to the player, the very number that Midnight arrived at, before I ever ran the numbers. Good work Skullker, it never hurts to have somebody check your math. Thank you. :)
     
    #135
    Last edited: May 18, 2019
  16. James Hall, May 17, 2019

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2016
    Messages:
    16,881
    Likes Received:
    2,395
    Gender:
    Male
    The ranch down the road
     
    #136
  17. The Midnight Skulker, May 17, 2019

    The Midnight Skulker

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2010
    Messages:
    4,067
    Likes Received:
    4,278
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Idaho, USA
    Point taken. In order to get to the studio and be eligible to play the game the contestant must have, or have access to a car. That car may or may not be as spiffy as the car Monty proffers. Furthermore, the contestant does not necessarily have, or have access to, a goat. It therefore logically follows that the contestant is indifferent as to what he/she will win and is wondering why he/she got dressed up in the silly outfit that makes him/her look like the two sides of his/her face do not add up to 7. Curses! There goes my perfect record for this year...and it's only May. :(


    I think you are a unit heavy on the comeout winners: I get a net of +10 from my spreadsheet. That reduces your "Bottom line" to 0.01686, which matches what I reported I got for a player advantage on Pass/Come in Post #48.
     
    #137
    lone irish digit likes this.
  18. von duck, May 18, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2017
    Messages:
    9,947
    Likes Received:
    2,603
    Gender:
    Male
    For some reason I am unable to reply to post # 137 by MS. He correctly pointed out a flaw in my math for post # 135, and the correction has been edited in to post # 137. He also came up with the correct answer a couple days ago.
     
    #138
  19. eagleeye2, May 18, 2019

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2015
    Messages:
    3,451
    Likes Received:
    573
    Gender:
    Male

    von duck,

    You speak with forked tounge, as the American Indians would say!!!

    eagleeye2
     
    #139
  20. The Midnight Skulker, May 18, 2019

    The Midnight Skulker

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2010
    Messages:
    4,067
    Likes Received:
    4,278
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Idaho, USA
    It must be emphasized that your (von duck's) inaccuracy does not detract from the point we and others -- mssthis1 for one I think (I'm, too lazy to go back and check, particularly since the resource error gremlins are currently having a frenzy) -- have consistently made: in goatcabin's words, "If you poke the balloon in one place it bulges out in another." The payouts in the game are designed to give the casino an acceptable advantage if the results are random. For each bet offered that advantage, though still calculable as we have demonstrated, will be different and may even be reversed for different distributions of dice roll results. It therefore follows that a player who detects biased dice (and presumably therefore knows, or if influencing them, will know, how they are biased) can exploit them, even without knowing how much the bias is.
     
    #140
    Last edited: May 18, 2019
    TDVegas likes this.