Place 6,8 vs Placing 5,6,8,9

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by etr102, Jan 28, 2013.

  1. etr102, Jan 28, 2013

    etr102

    etr102 Member

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    One strategy I've been trying lately has me trying to cover the 5,6,8,9. If the point is one of those 4 numbers, then I put a place bet on the other 3, otherwise I put a place bet on all 4.

    Assuming a $5 table, is there any mathematical advantage to placing $5 on the 5 and 9, and $6 on the 6 and 8 versus not putting anything on the 5 and 9, and placing $12 on the 6 and 8?

    Obviously when the 7 inevitably comes, you lose $24 in the second scenario versus $22 in the first scenario. The extra $2 lost is worth it to me because there are more ways of hitting with more numbers covered. Of course in either scenario you have to hit several times just to break even. Thoughts?

    I've also thought about scrapping the place bets and just using Come bets backed up with odds. The disadvantages to the come bet in my eyes is that you can't choose what number it will move up to and that you have to roll it twice (once to set the Come point and once to win).

    What do you guys think is the best of these three ideas? $22 across the 5,6,8,9? $24 across the 6 and 8? Or scrapping the place bets and just using come bets?

    I notice a most people at the casino in my hometown don't seem to make any come bets and I've never been sure why.
     
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  2. TheStoic, Jan 28, 2013

    TheStoic

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    Between those two strategies, I would stick with the 6 and 8 for $12 not $24. With the 5 and 9 that will lower your overall expected return. However, after a hit or two with the 6 and 8 I would start placing the 5 and 9. With the min. bet of $6 each you will limit your loss if the shooter has a short roll. But if you're okay with the $24 risk, then sure go for the $22 inside, just make sure you don't press until you get some of your initial investment back.


    Instead of the come bet you could wait to see what number it rolled, then place that number instead. Sure you miss a wager if the shooter rolls a 7 (but wouldn't you feel a little guilty anyways since that means the shooter sevened-out). By placing that number instead you get better odds, unless you pretty much go full odds on that particular come bet. Another advantage is that you can then take down that place bet if you see something that may effect the shooter ie. arguments, die off the table, stick change etc.
     
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  3. basicstrategy777, Jan 28, 2013

    basicstrategy777

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    I'd start off with come bets and eventually replace them with place bets as you get deep into the hand.

    If you only want to place numbers I would place even numbers and eventually cover them all.

    IMHO.

    777
     
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  4. bleeckerboy, Jan 29, 2013

    bleeckerboy

    bleeckerboy Member

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    I would also start with ^ each on the 6 and 8. If you are going to go $12 each, you may want to take them each down to $6 after a hit on either one to lock up profit. 5 and 9 have a higher vig than the 6 and 8. If you place even#'s, a hit on a $5 4 or 10 should be pressed to $10, 2nd hit buy the # for $25, third hit, take that # down with $77 profit...IMHO...

    -dice vice
     
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  5. The Midnight Skulker, Jan 30, 2013

    The Midnight Skulker

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    House advantage on Place 5|9 is 4.00%.
    House advantage on Place 6|8 is 1.52%.

    Consequently, from a long-term perspective, placing only the 6 and 8 is the better play since it gives a lower expected loss. However, the more numbers you cover the better your chances of winning one of them. You are a 3:1 favorite to win $7 betting $22 inside; you are a 5:3 favorite to win $14 betting $24 Section 8. Do you prefer a better chance to win less, or vice versa? Only you can answer that.
    House advantage on Come bets is 1.41%.
    House advantage on odds bets is 0.00%.

    Consequently, from a long-term perspective, Come w/odds is the best play since it gives a lower expected loss than any combination of place bets. However, you have noted what to you are negative aspects. (BTW having to roll the point twice to win is offset by your being a 2:1 favorite if the bet is resolved on the comeout roll.) Again only you can decide if the lower house advantage is reason enough for accepting the point the dice choose for you and the contract nature of the bet.

    I tend to side with dice vice; it sounds like you might find a regression strategy to your liking. Start with $24 Section 8 (i.e. place 6 and 8 for $12 each). First hit take both bets down to $6, locking up a $2 profit. Next hit same bet on 6 and 8, and make $5 Come bet, locking up another $2. If 6 or 8 hits again add odds to Come bet, locking up another $1 or $2 depending on the point. Continue to add Come and odds bets to taste. Advantages: 1) you need only one hit to show a profit for the series, and 2) you are making bets with the lowest HA.
     
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  6. bleeckerboy, Feb 1, 2013

    bleeckerboy

    bleeckerboy Member

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    I like the come bet after the 2nd hit, I'm gonna try that next time instead of climbing up the place bet ladder again...
     
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  7. goatcabin, Feb 2, 2013

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    With $24 out there, you have an expected loss of $.3636. With $10, pass line, taking double odds, your average bet is $23.33 and your expected loss is just $.1414. If you want to lock up a profit, let's say you make a 5, so you win the $10 flat and $30 odds, then next time bet $10 with single odds.

    You get the most variance for the least expected loss by minimizing the money you put on bets with a house edge, and maximize the money you put on the odds bets. That's why I no longer make come bets, preferring to use that money for odds. The down side of this is that you only have one number working for you, and sometimes you stand there watching people make money on place bets while you are waiting for the point number. OTOH, sometimes you watch those people lose several bets at a time on the seven-out. My way gives me the lowest expected loss and the best chance of breaking even or better.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
     
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  8. KokomoJoe4, May 7, 2018

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Interesting,

    Goatcabin's play is just as mine is, one line bet and odds.

    And here I thought I was alone in this endeavor.
     
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  9. James Hall, May 7, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    The last statement of this post summed up everything
    this post had to say
    and is exactly what I am talking about
    when I say some people are playing to break even or not to lose
    If a persons goal is to break even , this system will surely make that happen
    as often as not
     
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  10. James Hall, May 7, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    There it is :rolleyes:
     
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  11. BuckShot, May 7, 2018

    BuckShot

    BuckShot Member

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    Think of it this way... From the moment you place those four numbers, you are subject to a 4:1 loss ratio against the 7 (Easiest number to roll) even though you have many ways to roll the numbers. I find if you start will less numbers and bet more money, you will have a better "Bang for your buck"
    Check out my INSIDE/OUT strategy posted on this forum. You may like it.
     
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  12. DeMango, May 7, 2018

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    Buckshot: Somebody dug up a 5 year old thread. Don’t expect a reply for another 5 Year’s!
     
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  13. James Hall, May 7, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    So then , you are saying ,the smart play is betting more money
    and decreasing the number of possible ways to win???:confused:
     
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  14. von duck, May 7, 2018

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    Yeah, but he was doing at least 5 years ago, by the date of his post. :)
     
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  15. BuckShot, May 7, 2018

    BuckShot

    BuckShot Member

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    Absolutely correct. If you leave 4 bets up the casino will get it all in the long run. At least one or two numbers covers u in the long term. I’ve also proved my Longterm 6/8 betting strategy to survive 24/7 on a single bank roll of $1000.00 many times where as the 4 number betting just crashes in all my tests.
     
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  16. KokomoJoe4, May 7, 2018

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Yes, I would MUCH rather have all of the money I am wagering on one number. Why do you suppose this might be?
     
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  17. SevenOut, May 7, 2018

    SevenOut

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    This is a perverted Full Monte System that has been on the Craps Forum Advanced Craps for years. It was the dying wish of an old Craps Professional that the Full Monte be offered to those Craps Players in need of guidance. One can do a Half Monte ($100 Bankroll) or a Full Monte ($200 and up to the Table Limit).

    The last I heard, this gentleman is spending eternity in Hell and they do not permit the 'Monte System' as it is unfair to the Casino Staff that go from the Casino to Hell, without passing a test of competence.

    Next thing you will know there will be a Martingale D'Alembert Perverted Full Monte System.
     
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  18. James Hall, May 7, 2018

    James Hall

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    I don't know it actually sounds counter intuitive to me
    Place more money at risk and reduce my chances of a win
    to 1 roll in 7

    I am having a hard time seeing how that increase my chances of winning
     
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  19. TDVegas, May 7, 2018

    TDVegas

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    Because if that number hits....it's going to pay a lot more than if the money was spread out on six numbers and one of those hits.

    What do you mean you're having a hard time seeing that??:confused:
     
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  20. tabletop123, May 7, 2018

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Ya can't explain that Logic to James. He says that every number that hits that you don't have wagered.....you're just giving it back to the house! Lol.

    Risk versus reward is simply incomprehensible to him. He says that we have it ALL wrong! Lol.

    Remember, elite shooters are immune to the Math of the game because of their superior shooting skills. Lol.
    Ya must have missed the post wherein James declined Leon, & Parker's invitation to hit Vegas.
    James only goes to the Casinos when he needs money, & RIGHT NOW he is "Flush", therefore there's no need to go.

    He'll wait until he gets down needing the Mortgage, Car Note, & Parker's Plane Note paid & ONLY THEN will he go to the Casinos.

    NOT A MOMENT SOONER!
    LTWOQ!
     
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